Recent National Comments

[LookinUp]

I always find these national comments and draft talk amusing. Most of the teams are not going to throw out info about who they are going to take. If they do throw info out there, some of it may be to throw other people off.

Therefore, most of the comments by national media and on this board are just educated guesses. I just wait until draft day and hope that the O's don't do something stupid.

Yeah...they're all almost certainly talking with various draft prospects to gauge their interest in signing, and for ballpark amounts. Thus, a team like Pittsburgh can throw names out there as a threat against the top couple of prospects.

I'm not sure how much this actually happens, but it sounds reasonable.

[Stotle]

I always find these national comments and draft talk amusing. Most of the teams are not going to throw out info about who they are going to take. If they do throw info out there, some of it may be to throw other people off.

Therefore, most of the comments by national media and on this board are just educated guesses. I just wait until draft day and hope that the O's don't do something stupid.

Well, I think the real limitation is that the national media guys are limited to their contacts. Generally, teams are not forthcoming with their targets. But, they do a surprisingly solid job digging into what other teams are thinking/focusing on. A lot of this is at the Area Scout level where you can track which players your contemporaries are scouting, and more importantly which games draw the upper brass (regional directors, cross-checkers, scouting director and GM).

I would assume that someone like Callis gets his info on, say Seattle, by talking to other teams. Then, gets his info about another team by talking to his contact(s) with Seattle.

It's still, obviously, imperfect. But I think there is some veracity to the idea that BA/Law/etc. are getting useful information in some form. I just question the overall utility of a mock draft. There aren't THAT many top draft prospects. I don't see why fans wouldn't be content to see more focus/analysis on the players themselves, rather than time spent trying to guess which player in particular their team is going to draft. Of course, I'm knee deep in the draft and it's likely the more casual draft fan doesn't really need/want more player info, and would rather just know "who is my team drafting."

[eb45]

Could the Chapman and Strasburg injuries make people shy away from Cole?

They shouldn't.

Strasburg's mechanics, combined with how hard he threw, made it almost a certainty he would suffer some sort of serious injury. The only question was how soon. Chapman's mechanics, while not as scary as Strasburg's, still had plenty of red flags. Cole's mechanics aren't entirely clean, but a whole lot better than either Chapman or Strasburg.

[RVAbird]

Recent national news; Arizona - If Hultzen is gone, it's Trevor Bauer or Dylan Bundy here, with Cole and Starling as backup plans. The D-backs had a small army at ASU to see both UCLA arms this weekend, including GM Kevin Towers, and Bauer hit 95 in the first and ninth innings while spinning a shutout. But Hultzen's been their guy all spring.

Baltimore Orioles Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS. If Bundy goes at No. 3 to Arizona, the Orioles have the other top Oklahoma prep arm, Archie Bradley, in their sights, and I wouldn't rule out Cole here, either.

The Pirates are still seriously on Danny Hultzen and Bubba Starling, and I wouldn't rule Anthony Rendon out entirely, but my gut tells me right now they'll find Cole's raw stuff -- he hit 101 for me on Friday night and touched 100 many times, including in the eighth inning --too good to pass up.

Seattle is looking at Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde Academy:

Orioles: Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner-Edgerton HS: One of the highest ceilings in the draft, Starling profiles as a five-tool center fielder

Kansas City RoyalsMatt Barnes, RHP, UConn. Cole is still the dream scenario for the Royals, who could end up with Bundy, as well. They're determined to get a pitcher who'll move quickly through their system to the big leagues so that he arrives with all their other premium minor league talent.

.

One national site has my three picks in order; Hultzen, Cole and Bauer going 1-2-3 with the Orioles taking Bundy and passing on Rendon. I don't see that happening. Rendon or Starling? No we need help sooner than later and will take a college player....Rendon.

Okay, I was half-joking when you quoted my article the other day, but this is getting bad. You really should include citations and (when possible) links when you post info from national writers on this board. A writer makes his livelihood through his writing and deserves to be credited when quoted.

Don't take this the wrong way, I appreciate you aggregating national comments into one thread. I just think people need to know where the quotes are coming from.

[LookinUp]

They shouldn't.

Strasburg's mechanics, combined with how hard he threw, made it almost a certainty he would suffer some sort of serious injury. The only question was how soon. Chapman's mechanics, while not as scary as Strasburg's, still had plenty of red flags. Cole's mechanics aren't entirely clean, but a whole lot better than either Chapman or Strasburg.

I admit to not knowing a ton about mechanics and liklihood of injuries. However, it doesn't seem coincidental that pitchers don't often throw 100 mph and those that do are frequently injured.

Verlander has been strong so far. Wagner, out of the pen, was relatively healthy. I'm having a hard time naming many others.

[eb45]

It's highly possible that the mechanics Strasburg used helped him throw harder in addition to putting lots of stress on his elbow.

In other words, I wouldn't be too concerned simply because Cole throws hard, and Strasburg would have nothing to do with it.

[allstar1579]

It's highly possible that the mechanics Strasburg used helped him throw harder in addition to putting lots of stress on his elbow.

In other words, I wouldn't be too concerned simply because Cole throws hard, and Strasburg would have nothing to do with it.

Yeah, it's not that FB that gets them, it's how hard they throw the curve and slider. They are both KILLER on the elbow at high speeds, and since Strasburg has one of the fastest CB I've ever seen, I'd be willing to bet on that one. That also might explain why he's been working so hard on the CH, so he doesn't have to throw the Slider and Cutter so much.

[section18]

Most of the comments are from Jonathan Mayo, Keith Law, Jim Callis Rob Steingall and individual reporters covering the teams mentioned. I'll include their names and others in future comments.

[section18]

By Adam Wells(Featured Columnist) on June 1, 2011 958 reads

2011 MLB Draft Will See Some Premiere Talents Slide Due To Reported Money Demands

This year's draft has a few guys that have reportedly made big demands that could cause them to slide further than their talent would warrant. Here are the top 3:

Bubba Starling, the stud outfielder from Kansas who has a scholarship to play football and baseball at Nebraska, is the most talented player in this entire draft class. He could be the top player taken. The problem is he has reportedly asked for a bonus of $10 million, which is going to scare a lot of teams off.

Dylan Bundy, a star high school pitcher in Oklahoma, is making big bonus demands. His talent screams that he is a top-5 pick, but his contract demands are going to make cheaper teams go running for the hills.

Blake Swihart, a high school catcher from New Mexico, is the best catching prospect in this draft class - a top-10 to 15 talent - but he hasn't played a lot of catcher this year, according to ESPN's Jason Churchill, and that could cause him to fall out of the first round. He reportedly wants to be paid like top-10 player, and teams that pick later in the draft who might value him but are afraid to pay him are going to shy away from him.

Of these three guys, Swihart is likely to fall the furthest because he hasn't been playing his best position this season so scouts aren't able to properly evaluate him.

[Can_of_corn]

Yeah, it's not that FB that gets them, it's how hard they throw the curve and slider. They are both KILLER on the elbow at high speeds, and since Strasburg has one of the fastest CB I've ever seen, I'd be willing to bet on that one. That also might explain why he's been working so hard on the CH, so he doesn't have to throw the Slider and Cutter so much.

The pitch he threw when he hurt himself was a change up. That of course does not mean that his other pitches were not a factor.

[allstar1579]

The pitch he threw when he hurt himself was a change up. That of course does not mean that his other pitches were not a factor.

Technically, that was the last pitch he threw before he pulled up and quit. I promise it hurt a couple pitches before that. It's not like a MCL tear kinda injury where you know right away, I'm sure he gave it a couple of tries before he was sure that's what it was, probably why he threw a softer change up last, cause it hurt to throw harder.

[Can_of_corn]

Technically, that was the last pitch he threw before he pulled up and quit. I promise it hurt a couple pitches before that. It's not like a MCL tear kinda injury where you know right away, I'm sure he gave it a couple of tries before he was sure that's what it was, probably why he threw a softer change up last, cause it hurt to throw harder.

Just going by what I read

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said the team's medical staff believes Strasburg's injury was "acute" and happened on one pitch.

http://www.aolnews.com/2010/08/27/stephen-strasburg-has-significant-tear-in-elbow-ligament/

Cruising through a game at Citizens Bank Park with two hits allowed and six strikeouts on just 56 pitches, Strasburg visibly winced as he threw a 1-1 change-up in to Phillies batter Domonic Brown. Strasburg himself waived trainer Lee Kuntz to the mound along with catcher Ivan Rodriguez and the coaching staff and was pulled from the game for reliever Craig Stammen.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beanballs/nats-postgame-strasburg-injury-overshadows-win?quicktabs_1=0

Strasburg was throwing FAR more change-ups than he’s used to. In college, he was so dominant that he could be a 2-pitch pitcher (4-seamer and curve) and pitch his way to the player of the year award. However, in the pros 3 pitches are required and 4 good pitches are desired. Luckily, Strasburg possessed a 91-mph circle change that moved 10-12 inches on the horizontal plane, an absolutely ridiculous pitch. Well, his catchers noticed this too, knowing that a screw-ball like 91 mph pitch had a better chance of getting hit by lightening than being hit hard, and started calling for it more and more. For the season he threw that pitch 16.7% of the time (according to Fangraphs.com) but by the time the fateful Philadelphia game rolled around he was throwing it more like 20-21% of the time.

The circle change is a rather difficult pitch to master. You essentially make a “circle” with your thumb and forefinger around the ball, then throw the ball with a fastball arm-action but letting it “tumble” off your remaining three fingers. This causes the screw-ball like reverse movement on the ball when thrown with enough velocity. It is a great pitch; not only does it come out of the hand slower (hence the changeup) but it moves unlike any of your other pitches. The bad part of the pitch; it causes a ton of stress on the arm. Your wrist and fingers are very strong and contribute to the natural fastball motion; by taking them out of play with the circle-change you use a lot more of your forearm and elbow to “throw” the pitch.

http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=170

[LookinUp]

Nolan Ryan pitched for 20 years without ever having a serious arm injury. Just saying.

La la la la, I can't hear you.

I'd also note that he had a pretty nasty hook and didn't get injured. It's hard to make any hard and fast general rules, but building one off of Nolan Ryan seems particularly difficult.

[allstar1579]

Just going by what I read

http://www.aolnews.com/2010/08/27/stephen-strasburg-has-significant-tear-in-elbow-ligament/

http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beanballs/nats-postgame-strasburg-injury-overshadows-win?quicktabs_1=0

http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=170

Yeah I read some of those when it happened, I just don't believe the spin. I think they are afraid to admit what everyone said was going to happen did happen, so they tried to make it sound like it was a one-pitch freak happening. When dozens of people are telling you that someone is at risk for something because of what and how he throws, and then it happens, I tend to think they were right. The circle-change thing really got me. I threw one in college, it was probably my best pitch, and I never remember feeling any kind of stress. Maybe I wasn't throwing it right or something, but it was always pretty easy on the arm compared to a curve or a slider. Maybe Gordos could chime in on this one, he'd know better than I would I think, but I have NEVER heard of someone putting a ton of stress on their arm from throwing too many change ups...

My gut instinct, says he wore it down with his mechanics and style of pitches, and then he tore it on a tough pitch a couple before the change, then he threw another pitch or two to see if it was really an injury and came out. When I tore my shoulder, I didn't know it was torn at first, my arm went numb for a min, and the ball didn't go as far as it should have, but I thought it was just something fluke, so after the next out I tried to throw it around the horn, and it two hopped to the SS (I played 1B), same numb tingle and then the pain followed...that's when I figured it out.

[Can_of_corn]

Yeah I read some of those when it happened, I just don't believe the spin. I think they are afraid to admit what everyone said was going to happen did happen, so they tried to make it sound like it was a one-pitch freak happening. When dozens of people are telling you that someone is at risk for something because of what and how he throws, and then it happens, I tend to think they were right. The circle-change thing really got me. I threw one in college, it was probably my best pitch, and I never remember feeling any kind of stress. Maybe I wasn't throwing it right or something, but it was always pretty easy on the arm compared to a curve or a slider. Maybe Gordos could chime in on this one, he'd know better than I would I think, but I have NEVER heard of someone putting a ton of stress on their arm from throwing too many change ups...

My gut instinct, says he wore it down with his mechanics and style of pitches, and then he tore it on a tough pitch a couple before the change, then he threw another pitch or two to see if it was really an injury and came out. When I tore my shoulder, I didn't know it was torn at first, my arm went numb for a min, and the ball didn't go as far as it should have, but I thought it was just something fluke, so after the next out I tried to throw it around the horn, and it two hopped to the SS (I played 1B), same numb tingle and then the pain followed...that's when I figured it out.

I was not watching the game where he was hurt so the following is speculation.

He had a huge amount of media attention and, obviously, all of his starts were televised. If he had hurt himself 1-2 pitches prior would he not have been reacting in such a way that the analysts watching the game would have noticed?