I think this winter (maybe sooner), it will be time to pick a direction

[crawjo]

Wieters, Jones, Britton, Matusz, and Arrieta. Keep those guys. Try to trade everybody else. The problem is that the Orioles veteran players are not very valuable right now, with the exception of Guthrie.

[TakebackOPACY]

You want as apolopy. You got it. I am sorry to anyone that I offended with a board statement that the whole Hangout gave up the O's. However, I think those who have given up on the O's or said they have zero chance are premature at best and flat out wrong at worse. If three teams in 2009 made in to the playoffs by making up more ground then O's have to then its too early to count the O's out.

TakebackOPACY, I have said repeatedly I have no problem with posters crafting ways to improve the team. I think you are wrong to say I do. Does that mean you owe me an apology? I'll let you figure that out. I just think those that have given up on the season should wait a while and see what happens before putting a nail in the coffin.

Go O's.

Fair enough. The only thing for which I'm sorry in this thread is the possibility that the tone of my posts toward you could be lumped in with posts that have demeaned your optimism from time to time. Debate your reasoning? Absolutely. Demean your reasoning? Never my intention.

[The Rick]

We will know a lot more by mid July if not sooner.

I hear ya, and don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled that for once if everything goes right we could be in the conversation come September, but I'm just not optimistic that it will turn out that way. Lets hope!

[Frobby]

I don't know where this 2% chance comes from but let's talk reality.

1. In 2009 the Rockies were 5 back in the wild card race on June the 10th. There were 8 teams better then them in just the wild card race (Doesn't count the division leaders). They won the wild card by 4 games. They picked up 9 games.

2. In 2009, The Twins were 4 back in the division race on June 10th. They won the division by one game. The picked up 5 games.

3. In 2009, the LAA were 3.5 back on June 10th for the division title. They won by 10. The pick up 13.5 games.

I did very little research to find these three examples. If there are three in the last two years it stands to reason there are bunch more. I don't know what the 2% represents but this makes me feel the the O's are still in the wild card race.

WC, I believe BP's methodology is as follows. They start with PECOTA projections for the individual players, which are adjusted as the season progresses. Remenber, PECOTA gives a range of outcomes for each player, not just one outcome. From that, they generate a range of team numbers for runs scored and allowed for each team. They feed that into a computer program that simulates what would happen if the season was played a million times -- each simulated season yields a different outcome. All of this is done once a day, so that adjustments are being made for how the players are doing, what the team's record currently is, and what is the difficulty of the remaining schedule. Under this methodology, the odds of the Orioles making the playoffs with a 29-31 record 4 games out with 102 games to play, mostly on the road with a very heavy dose of AL East games remaining, are very different than the odds would be if some other team, with different players, different strength of schedule, different home/road mix would be. FYI, right now our playoff odds are rated higher than the Blue Jays', even though they are ahead of us in the standings.

All that said, I'm not the one doing their calculations, and I am not claiming that they are the gospel. But, their mathematical answer of 2% instinctively sounds about right to me, considering our circumstances. And by the way, 2% isn't zero, and it's good enough to keep me interested and hoping that things break our way.

[SrMeowMeow]

You can use your "teams have overcome deficits" "evidence" to claim every team in baseball has a chance. We aren't as good as any of the teams on that list were, and more importantly, our division is far, far more difficult.

We are incredible long-shots right now and that's coming from someone who was very optimistic about this season. We've had some bad luck and injuries but at this point it is what it is.

[Frobby]

I am bumping this thread I started on June 24:

I was just reading the Fielder thread, and as I was thinking about it, this winter (and maybe sooner) I think we need to get off this "middle course" we've been on. We've been trying, for years, to not go into total rebuild mode, but not get overcommitted to big time free agents, either. As I look at the other teams in our division, I just don't think it's going to work. I might have felt differently if BRob had been healthy the last two years, if Nick had blossomed into the star we all thought he would be, if Wieters was the offensive force he was projected to be, and/or if our pitching had really taken off. But those things have not happened, and even though this year's team appears to be a little better than in recent years, maybe even poised for a run at .500, it doesn't look like a team that is going to mature into a contender over the next couple of years, unless there is a major infusion of talent.

I'm sure SG will say this has been obvious all along. Well, I don't think it had to turn out this way, for the reasons I listed. But simply put, our "core" doesn't appear to be that good. Not as good as I hoped, anyway.

So, I think we need to start trading for younger guys and/or positioning ourselves to get a lot of draft picks, or we need to start spending up the wazoo on big name free agents.

Certainly, things did not get better for the 2011 Orioles after I posted this. But as I look at what Duquette has done so far, it seems we are continuing to steer a middle course. I will be interested to see if he changes direction in January and February and starts looking to trade some of our better veterans. But, indications are, probably not.

[NewMarketSean]

The Orioles for years have not been able to fold their hand of pocket 4's.

They can't bring themselves to trade any one in their slightly above average core.

At least DD is aggressive with personnel hirings and movement, but everything else is still par for the course in Birdland.

[Moose Milligan]

I am bumping this thread I started on June 24:

Certainly, things did not get better for the 2011 Orioles after I posted this. But as I look at what Duquette has done so far, it seems we are continuing to steer a middle course. I will be interested to see if he changes direction in January and February and starts looking to trade some of our better veterans. But, indications are, probably not.

I was actually waiting for you to start one of those threads about what time of year Duquette typically makes his deals. I think you did that for MacPhail and it was pretty informative. I'd try to look for it myself but I'm not sure what sites have that information neatly packaged and available.

The ML team still seems to be on that middle road, however I like what DD has done for the international department.

[Fan4Life]

I am bumping this thread I started on June 24:

Certainly, things did not get better for the 2011 Orioles after I posted this. But as I look at what Duquette has done so far, it seems we are continuing to steer a middle course. I will be interested to see if he changes direction in January and February and starts looking to trade some of our better veterans. But, indications are, probably not.

Well, consider that waiting until the break in 2012 might be a better options for a few reasons:

1) You'll know if Matusz rebounded

2) You'll know if Britton is building on last years success

3) You'll know if the Japanese player(s) you've added are performing to expectations

4) Probably many more things will be clearer at this point than they are right now

The side affect of waiting is the possibility of losing value in the players you want to trade either by heir being closer to FA, or just under performing.

In your view, how much value would Guthrie and/or Jones lose by waiting presuming their performance isn't a factor at that point?

[Stotle]

Well, consider that waiting until the break in 2012 might be a better options for a few reasons:

1) You'll know if Matusz rebounded

2) You'll know if Britton is building on last years success

3) You'll know if the Japanese player(s) you've added are performing to expectations

4) Probably many more things will be clearer at this point than they are right now

The side affect of waiting is the possibility of losing value in the players you want to trade either by heir being closer to FA, or just under performing.

In your view, how much value would Guthrie and/or Jones lose by waiting presuming their performance isn't a factor at that point?

Plus, your pro scouts will have six extra months to gather info on potential prospect trade targets. Oh, wait.....

[clapdiddy]

Well, consider that waiting until the break in 2012 might be a better options for a few reasons:

1) You'll know if Matusz rebounded

2) You'll know if Britton is building on last years success

3) You'll know if the Japanese player(s) you've added are performing to expectations

4) Probably many more things will be clearer at this point than they are right now

The side affect of waiting is the possibility of losing value in the players you want to trade either by heir being closer to FA, or just under performing.

In your view, how much value would Guthrie and/or Jones lose by waiting presuming their performance isn't a factor at that point?

Lots of good points here. I would still look to move Guthrie and/or Jones THIS offseason, but I have no indication that either of these guys will be moved because Buck needs them in his quest for mediocrity.

To answer your question, I think Guthrie will definitely lose value as he will be seen as a half-year solution if he is held until the deadline. Jones likely won't lose a lot of value unless he tanks or gets hurt.

I agree with your premise that DD wants to evaluate what he has and isn't going to make hasty moves until the team gets to the deadline. I'm hopeful that we will make some meaningful trades if this team is woefully inept, as usual, at the deadline this year. With PA and BS calling the shots, I don't know how likely that will be, though.

[srock]

1. Rebuild scouting and development

2. ?

3. Profit

The Orioles are still in step 1. Until ? is reached, I think Angelos is pushing mediocrity via keeping payroll in the $80 million range.

[Fan4Life]

Plus, your pro scouts will have six extra months to gather info on potential prospect trade targets. Oh, wait.....

If the guys they want are amateurs I think we got that one.

[33rdst]

Well, consider that waiting until the break in 2012 might be a better options for a few reasons:

1) You'll know if Matusz rebounded

2) You'll know if Britton is building on last years success

3) You'll know if the Japanese player(s) you've added are performing to expectations

4) Probably many more things will be clearer at this point than they are right now

The side affect of waiting is the possibility of losing value in the players you want to trade either by heir being closer to FA, or just under performing.

In your view, how much value would Guthrie and/or Jones lose by waiting presuming their performance isn't a factor at that point?

I like this strategy.

[Frobby]

In your view, how much value would Guthrie and/or Jones lose by waiting presuming their performance isn't a factor at that point?

Jones probably doesn't lose too much, as he will still have 1.3 seasons remaining in July. Guthrie could lose quite a bit, though it depends who else is available and how he is doing.

I think you are probably right that the O's will hold onto their cards now and reassess in the middle of the season.