AM: Teams had legit interest in Hardy

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, I know...everything that differs from your point is stupid reasoning.

Not true...Stupid reasoning is stupid reasoning. It doesn't matter if it conflicts with me or not.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

LOL....The problem with Frobby's theory is, what happens if Hardy goes back to the oft injured, mediocre performance SS he had been the last 2 years?

At that point, the contract will be a negative, not a plus.

You can "what if" all day. What if you traded Hardy and the players you got in return were Josh Bell types? The grass is not always greener. Somehow in your plans, every guy we trade for will become a star with no possible downside. The song you are singing about every move the Orioles make being wrong, well it used to be a hit on the billboard charts, but it's just getting annoying now.

[Sports Guy]

You can "what if" all day. What if you traded Hardy and the players you got in return were Josh Bell types? The grass is not always greener. Somehow in your plans, every guy we trade for will become a star with no possible downside. The song you are singing about every move the Orioles make being wrong, well it used to be a hit on the billboard charts, but it's just getting annoying now.

LOL...when have I ever said they will all be stars?

If they turn out to be Bell types than that would really suck. Unfortunately, that's the risk in making trades.

But let's put it this way...The way you think is what the Orioles have been doing for years and years...How has that worked out?

[RavensNTerps]

LOL....The problem with Frobby's theory is, what happens if Hardy goes back to the oft injured, mediocre performance SS he had been the last 2 years?

At that point, the contract will be a negative, not a plus.

As opposed to trading him for someone the caliber of Josh Bell (or Brandon Wood or Casey Kotchman or any of the other guys you've pimped for years)?

[Frobby]

LOL....The problem with Frobby's theory is, what happens if Hardy goes back to the oft injured, mediocre performance SS he had been the last 2 years?

At that point, the contract will be a negative, not a plus.

There is risk either way. That is why I was careful in my post to say "if we can keep him healthy" and "provided he avoids major injuries." Personally, I think it is a decent risk to take considering his salary. Per fangraphs, even in his "mediocre" 2009-10, he was worth $6.4 mm and $9.8 mm, and he has been worth $9.6 mm already this year despite missing a month.

[Sports Guy]

As opposed to trading him for someone the caliber of Josh Bell (or Brandon Wood or Casey Kotchman or any of the other guys you've pimped for years)?

Or trading him for the next AGon, a guy I wanted that many said would be no good.

It goes both ways. Sometimes they fail, sometimes they succeed.

Maybe you end up with the next John Smoltz or maybe you end up with the next Jeremy Hermida.

[RavensNTerps]

LOL...when have I ever said they will all be stars?

If they turn out to be Bell types than that would really suck. Unfortunately, that's the risk in making trades.

But let's put it this way...The way you think is what the Orioles have been doing for years and years...How has that worked out?

Doing for years? JJ Hardy is the exact type of player we've been WAITING on for years!! We got a top tier YOUNG SS. Isn't that what we've been wanting? Or do you want Robert Andino to start at SS for a couple years so we can get some upper-mid tier prospects at best?

[Sports Guy]

There is risk either way. That is why I was careful in my post to say "if we can keep him healthy" and "provided he avoids major injuries." Personally, I think it is a decent risk to take considering his salary. Per fangraphs, even in his "mediocre" 2009-10, he was worth $6.4 mm and $9.8 mm, and he has been worth $9.6 mm already this year despite missing a month.

Well, as long as you said that.....

You do know that by you saying it, it doesn't mean the risk isn't there, right?

And your last sentence there is why I don't think the contract itself can be considered a bad one. He is still ikely to be worth the contract even if he plays in just 120 games.

But if you think you his contract would be looked at as a positive if he is missing 40+ games a year than you are wrong.

That's the danger with the deal...Not to mention, you just re-signed one of the few players that could have fetched you multiple players to fill big needs on this team.

[Sports Guy]

Doing for years? JJ Hardy is the exact type of player we've been WAITING on for years!! We got a top tier YOUNG SS. Isn't that what we've been wanting? Or do you want Robert Andino to start at SS for a couple years so we can get some upper-mid tier prospects at best?

Again, what we have had to see in the past at SS means nothing.

If Hardy was going to fetch us a very good talent at pitcher and either the OF or CI than we are better off there. We are better off saving the money and using it elsewhere. You could go out and get yourself a Cozart type guy...A guy that should give you league average production at SS for little money.

Again, the Hardy contract, in a vaccuum, is a great contract for the Orioles. No one is denying that. No one is denying that Hardy is an upper echelon SS when he is healthy.

But none of that means that the Orioles should have extended him. There is a bigger picture to worry about here.

[Slappy]

Re-signing Hardy at the terms we did was not stupid. Trading him would not have been stupid. Arguing that one or the other is a stupid move is stupid.

[Frobby]

Well, as long as you said that.....

You do know that by you saying it, it doesn't mean the risk isn't there, right?

And your last sentence there is why I don't think the contract itself can be considered a bad one. He is still ikely to be worth the contract even if he plays in just 120 games.

But if you think you his contract would be looked at as a positive if he is missing 40+ games a year than you are wrong.

That's the danger with the deal...Not to mention, you just re-signed one of the few players that could have fetched you multiple players to fill big needs on this team.

You seem to be missing my point. I am saying that if he stays relatively healthy in the interim, Hardy will be much more valuable in a future trade than he would have been this July. So, you will get more/better players to fill needs on this team if you sign him and trade him later, as opposed to trading him now -- provided he stays healthy.

And yes, there is a risk that he doesn't stay healthy, and also a risk that he stays healthy but declines as a player. But if I were a betting man, I'd say the risk the Orioles took in that regard isn't a bad one, considering Hardy's age and the nature of the injuries he has had.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

LOL...when have I ever said they will all be stars?

If they turn out to be Bell types than that would really suck. Unfortunately, that's the risk in making trades.

But let's put it this way...The way you think is what the Orioles have been doing for years and years...How has that worked out?

Being on the other side of every move the Orioles make is not a bad side to take, since they have proven that they can not seem to get a whole lot right. But that does not mean that every move is a poor one. Neither you or I know what was offered for Hardy, so passing judgment on not trading him, is a leap I wont make ( but im sure you have no problem doing so). That leaves the option of taking the picks or signing him. I agree with signing him.

[nadecir]

It looks like there would have been a good market for Hardy's services. Jim Bowden's trade deadline big board appeared on espn.com today, and he detailed the top players at each position from the selling clubs, and their ranking by position. He provides only 2 shortstops available on the selling clubs. Number one is Rafael Furcal, and number two is Jason Bartlett. Both are not in Hardy's league in terms of performance this season. Bowden says the Mets are not inclined to trade Jose Reyes. He says the Cardinals would be a good fit for Furcal, and multiple teams have an interest in Bartlett. There just aren't a lot of shortstops available this trading deadline. Hardy could have commanded quite a bit I imagine.

In terms of Orioles players ranked on the top players to be traded, Bowden has Guthrie ranked as the #7 starting pitcher. Guerrero is the top DH, but he says he will likely finish the year in Baltimore because of his injury. Derrek Lee is the #4 first basemen, and he says he doubts there are any takers. Mark Reynolds is ranked as the #2 third basemen on the selling clubs. No Orioles reliever is mentioned as among the 15 possible trade candidates at reliever.

[Sports Guy]

You seem to be missing my point. I am saying that if he stays relatively healthy in the interim, Hardy will be much more valuable in a future trade than he would have been this July. So, you will get more/better players to fill needs on this team if you sign him and trade him later, as opposed to trading him now -- provided he stays healthy.

And yes, there is a risk that he doesn't stay healthy, and also a risk that he stays healthy but declines as a player. But if I were a betting man, I'd say the risk the Orioles took in that regard isn't a bad one, considering Hardy's age and the nature of the injuries he has had.

I'm not missing your point. You are right...IF HE STAYS HEALTHY.

We know that right now, teams had legit interest in him and that he was very likely going to fetch a package that you would have had to accept.

So now, we have to hope that the same thing will continue to happen with him, as he gets older. As law said, injury prone players don't tend to be stop being injury prone as they get older.

Also, you can argue that the prospect of getting 2 draft picks at the end of the season is more enticing to a team than having to pay a player a lot of money.

[Frobby]

I'm not missing your point. You are right...IF HE STAYS HEALTHY.

We know that right now, teams had legit interest in him and that he was very likely going to fetch a package that you would have had to accept.

So now, we have to hope that the same thing will continue to happen with him, as he gets older. As law said, injury prone players don't tend to be stop being injury prone as they get older.

Also, you can argue that the prospect of getting 2 draft picks at the end of the season is more enticing to a team than having to pay a player a lot of money.

How do we know that the package that might have been offered for Hardy was one we would have had to accept? Have we heard any specifics at all about what was offered?

In my opinion, the Hardy contract is cheap. FG says he has been worth $25.8 mm from 2009-11, and that's without counting the 2.5 months remaining to play this season. The injured version of Hardy has been worth $6-9 mm a year even missing some time; the healthy version of Hardy is worth $15 mm+.

Look, my eyes are wide open here. We've seen what happened to BRob. We've seen Luke Scott's trade value plunge now that he is damaged goods. We know Hardy has missed significant time each of the last three seasons. To some extent, the Orioles are taking a gamble by signing Hardy and hoping they can get more for him later than they could get for him now (or, just hoping that he plays well for them and they benefit from it on the field). But to me, that is not a bad risk. I'd say the chances that he will be worth more next July than he is worth this July are about 70%.