At what point was it clear to you MacPhail was not "the guy?"

[SrMeowMeow]

The idea that "good GMs" don't make big mistakes is off. Epstein signed Julio Lugo long term? Billy Beane's list of bad trades is almost as long as his list of good ones.

Whoever our next GM is will make some doozies. You can't make good moves without making a few horrible ones along the way.

Lugo was a good player when he was signed, averaging probably 3 WAR for the previous four seasons. 4 years was questionable, but the Red Sox were a) in a position to leverage marginal wins and we were not, and b) had probably twice the payroll limit we did. So what would have been a very bad decision and a horrific result for the O's was merely a mediocre decision with very bad results for the Red Sox.

As far as Beane's trades, none of them bother me. I'm not a huge CarGo fan, and he developed exceptionally well. And Holliday cratered in Oakland and immediately rebounded when traded - talk about bad luck. Finally, Beane was trying to contend, and IMO had the team to plausibly do it. Just because he wasn't right doesn't make his decision bad.

[SrMeowMeow]

Ok, I don't read all your posts.

Still, while those moves were bad decisions, they were not ones that are that painful long-term. And it's still just 2 decisions in 4 years. That's not that bad.

Overall results are quite bad and for that I'd support going in a different direction.

Next time I would prefer you read my posts before you respond to them fifty times only to reveal it was a misunderstanding.

[mweb]

Next time I would prefer you read my posts before you respond to them fifty times only to reveal it was a misunderstanding.

Umm, I know you used a smiley and all, but you are the one who first replied to me and this misumderstanding is harly relevant to the discussion.

[mweb]

Lugo was a good player when he was signed, averaging probably 3 WAR for the previous four seasons. 4 years was questionable, but the Red Sox were a) in a position to leverage marginal wins and we were not, and b) had probably twice the payroll limit we did. So what would have been a very bad decision and a horrific result for the O's was merely a mediocre decision with very bad results for the Red Sox.

As far as Beane's trades, none of them bother me. I'm not a huge CarGo fan, and he developed exceptionally well. And Holliday cratered in Oakland and immediately rebounded when traded - talk about bad luck. Finally, Beane was trying to contend, and IMO had the team to plausibly do it. Just because he wasn't right doesn't make his decision bad.

He had a .8 rWAR the year before they signed him where he finished the year horribly. That along with the other moves were bad decisions imo. Plenty of other moves of his ended up with bad results. His track record of moves is not tremendously impressive imo, but like you say, they have a ton of payroll to make up for the bad moves.

I guess you won't agree that Beane made a bad decision, but I thought it clearly was and I think he's overrated in general. If he was the O's GM, I bet anything that people wouldn't give him nearly as much leeway as they do on here.

[nevadaO]

In all honesty, I did not have confidence in him at all. That did not have as much to do with him as it did that no one since Gillick has done anything the way it should be done.

I have jumped to MacPhail's defense before once or twice but only because those who were ridiculing him were being somewhat outrageous during those conversations.

With all of that being said, I was always hopeful that he could get something done. Somehow, he portrayed an air of confidence and I was foolish enough to buy into it.

The real point for me was the exact same time that Sports Guy mentioned. Our minor league system has gone from completely barren to not as completely barren. It's a sad state this franchise is in and since he is too reluctant to trade players when their value is at it's highest we are doomed to be relegated to the bottom of the league year-in and year-out.

The real question is, who is next? Who can possibly come here and completely fix this franchise from bottom to top? Who can convince PA that international scouting and recruiting is vastly inferior than the competition? Who can come here and trade the veterans and get quality prospects in return that actually pan out? Who can come here and turn our minor league system back into the jewel it used to be?

Is Showalter the answer here? Is Hart even good enough to be considered? Someone needs to come in and not be afraid to clean house and somehow do it properly. It is an exceedingly difficult task and I honestly don't know who could do that besides the likes of a Theo Epstein (just to be clear, not Theo himself but someone young and ambitious enough to be able to adapt to the new style of building a franchise).

We've been stuck in a rut for a decade and a half and no one will be able to come in and completely turn this around in less than four or five years. It just takes that much time to completely start over.

I was cautiously hopeful that MacPhail would do this as it appeared at first that this was his plan. Four years have passed and our prospects haven't panned out as hoped, our minor league system is essentially Manny Machado, and we're once again staring up at the rest of the league in almost every statistical category including the most important one: the standings.

Who is the answer?

[Sports Guy]

This isn't an impassioned defense. Sadly I'm going to use the slogan of a major news network, but it's called being fair and balanced.

I voted for major turnover in the organization including a new GM in a recent poll. I just think that AM has had some bad luck, some people on here fail to look in the mirror when criticizing him, and people naturally don't view other front offices with the same scope they do the O's, and that sometimes causes a mis-guided perspective.

He and the rest of the FO created most of the bad luck.

That's a bs cop out. Every team experiences bad luck. Injuries, prospects not developing, FA signings not working out are part of the game. Its the good GMs who can put together teams that rise above this...AM can't.

[TonySoprano]

Since we're going down memory lane, this is what I said almost two years ago:

I'm going to stop you right there. Having a plan, and executing it to success are two different things. I believe the youth movement plan is the way to go. However, there is nothing is Andy's past record to indicate that he is able to build sustainable, as in long-term success.

YR	TM	W  	L  	PCT1985	MIN 	77	85	0.4751986	MIN 	71	91	0.4381987	MIN 	85	77	0.5251988	MIN 	91	71	0.5621989	MIN 	80	82	0.4941990	MIN 	74	88	0.4571991	MIN 	95	67	0.5861992	MIN 	90	72	0.5561993	MIN 	71	91	0.4381994	MIN 	53	60	0.469TOTL	MIN 	787	784	0.5011995	CHC	73	71	0.5071996	CHC	76	86	0.4691997	CHC	68	94	0.4201998	CHC	90	73	0.5521999	CHC	67	95	0.4142000	CHC	65	97	0.4012001	CHC	88	74	0.5432002	CHC	67	95	0.4142003	CHC	88	74	0.5432004	CHC	89	73	0.5492005	CHC	79	83	2006	CHC	66	96	TOTL	CHC	916	1011	0.475TOTL	ALL	1703	1795	0.487

He had six losing seasons out of ten in Minnesota; eight losing seasons out of twelve in Chicago. In twenty-two seasons, the longest winning streak he had is two years. Compare that to the records of Epstein and Cashman, with all the resources at their disposal. In terms of payroll, Andy's Cubs were the Red Sox of the NL Central, averaging the second highest payroll in their division during his twelve seasons (highest in '99, '02, and '04)

Andy may get us to a winning season, and may even get us to the playoffs one year. I have real doubts that he'll be able to build long-term, sustainable success, particularly in this division.

BTW, that was in response to this:

AM is very good at a lot of things, namely building a very good foundation for potential long term success...Emphasis on the minors, etc...

If we were in any other division except maybe the AL West, his philosophies and plan would work very well.

In this division, they will work as well...but they will only work to get us to be a 85-88 type win team...which obviously isn't contending in this division.

A year earlier, I caught a ton of crap for raining on the parades of a bunch of posters who thought we'd sign Teixeira. Trea was leading the charge to keep the faith alive, and Belkast fueled the fire.

For example, post #29 here.

Suckers, all. They expected Angelos to have an epiphany and change his ways.

Please.

There was a man who kept beating his head against the wall, over and over.

"Why do you do that," people asked.

"Because it feels so good when I stop," he responded.

I've decided to stop, last month. Those who didn't get the message before.

Ciao

[SrMeowMeow]

Umm, I know you used a smiley and all, but you are the one who first replied to me and this misumderstanding is harly relevant to the discussion.

I resign. This is not a very interesting debate, and it's not going anywhere.

[mweb]

I resign. This is not a very interesting debate, and it's not going anywhere.

Great internet debate tactic.

[Sports Guy]

I resign. This is not a very interesting debate, and it's not going anywhere.

Rep your way!

[SrMeowMeow]

Great internet debate tactic.

I truly don't care about winning the internet debate. I'm just not getting any interesting ideas or perspectives from your responses, I find your tone bizarrely aggressive, and I'm not really having fun.

[Stotle]

I truly don't care about winning the internet debate. I'm just not getting any interesting ideas or perspectives from your responses, I find your tone bizarrely aggressive, and I'm not really having fun.

I wish I had thought of this line.

[TGO]

There was a man who kept beating his head against the wall, over and over.

"Why do you do that," people asked.

"Because it feels so good when I stop," he responded.

I've decided to stop, last month. Those who didn't get the message before.

Ciao

And...fade to black.

[SouthRider]

We keep hearing about the same problems with this organization over and over again for years. They don't develop players in the minors well. There is no organizational philosophy. Players have had too many different coaches telling them different things at each level. Why hasn't MacPhail fixed these things by now? It doesn't matter who they draft or trade for when their farm system is in total disarray. I had some hope when Buck came on board that organizationally things were going to change but I fear Buck will come and go much like Leo Mazzone did.

[mweb]

I truly don't care about winning the internet debate. I'm just not getting any interesting ideas or perspectives from your responses, I find your tone bizarrely aggressive, and I'm not really having fun.

Hilarious. Truly. I'm the agressive one, yet you're the one putting me down. I'd love to see how I was being so aggressive. Glad SG and Stotle agree, that says plenty considering the way they handle themselves on here. One is at least more upfront with the way he is rather than acting like he's so innocent.

For future reference, the classy way to stop debating with someone is to do just that without the snide remarks.