Bat Hardy 3rd and Jones 4th

[FanSince88]

I vote yes. Guerrero is allergic to hitting home runs this year.

[waroriole]

Yeah, I don't know why Buck insists on Hardy hitting 1st. He doesn't like it there, he doesn't have a good OBP, and he's better utilized hitting lower in the order with the power he's shown. Just another example of how Buck is no different from Trembley or those before him. Show some damn creativity. Just b/c a guy is a MI doesn't mean he has to lead off.

[FanSince88]

3) Hardy

4) Jones

5) Wieters/Reynolds/Davis (whoever seems to have the hot hand)

6) see #5

That is one scary middle of the order!

Bat Andino or even Guerrero 1st, I don't care.

[dmlfan928]

I say yes, but my question is, who will you bat lead off? Who do you think is both a good enough hitter and good enough base runner to bat lead off?

[Phantom]

Sure, why not?

(The Hater in me says, "Wow do we spend a lot of time discussing things that either have little or no effect on wins.")

[Can_of_corn]

Batting order does not appreciably effect scoring. An "optimized" batting order does not put the "best" hitters 3 and 4.

I would be interested in moving Vlad down to 8th, 9th, or ideally 10th in the order to shame him into hanging up the cleats.

[waroriole]

I say yes, but my question is, who will you bat lead off? Who do you think is both a good enough hitter and good enough base runner to bat lead off?

Nick. Andino has a good OBP, he could hit leadoff.

[FanSince88]

I say yes, but my question is, who will you bat lead off? Who do you think is both a good enough hitter and good enough base runner to bat lead off?

I'm more than willing to trade off some production at lead off for extra power in the middle of the order. We're not fully leveraging one of Hardy's biggest strengths!

I think Vlad should get a serious look, he's now a singles/doubles hitter. Speed isn't there but at least the guy can make contact! Or better yet bat Nick first, Vlad 2nd.

[FanSince88]

Batting order does not appreciably effect scoring. An "optimized" batting order does not put the "best" hitters 3 and 4.

I would be interested in moving Vlad down to 8th, 9th, or ideally 10th in the order to shame him into hanging up the cleats.

I doubt that. How does it not affect scoring to have Hardy batting with empty bases a lot more than he'd otherwise be at the 3 hole?

[El Gordo]

I say yes, but my question is, who will you bat lead off? Who do you think is both a good enough hitter and good enough base runner to bat lead off?

You can bat Nick lead off. But I wouldn't change Hardy's and Jones' spots. THey are doing well where they are. We don't have a true #4 hitter on this team.

[Phantom]

I doubt that. How does it not affect scoring to have Hardy batting with empty bases a lot more than he'd otherwise be at the 3 hole?

http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~raj/writing/BattingOrder.html

or, better yet:

http://www.hcs.harvard.edu/~mbodell/battingOrder2001.html

[Can_of_corn]

I doubt that. How does it not affect scoring to have Hardy batting with empty bases a lot more than he'd otherwise be at the 3 hole?

Doubt it all you like, the math has been done.

As I mentioned in the introduction, I wanted to look at all possible lineups for this study. My feeling was that, since all the likely combinations have been tried in simulation, a lineup that was significantly better than our traditional one would almost have to be one we wouldn't ordinarily consider.

So I ran the tests on the lineups mentioned above for the NL and AL from 1993 to 2004. Let's look at the NL first. As you will recall from the previous section, the traditional lineup, when evaluated using our method, produced 4.127 runs over 8 innings. When I looked at all possible combinations, the lineups went from a low of 3.967 runs to a high of 4.143. So the range was rather small. Here are how some of our likely and unlikely candidates ranked:

RUNS ----- LINEUP ---- RANK

4.127 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 216 the traditional one

4.125 3 4 1 5 2 6 8 7 9 324 sorted by OBP, highest to lowest

4.109 3 4 5 6 2 1 7 8 9 4757 sorted by OPS, highest to lowest

3.999 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 339298 reverse traditional

3.983 9 7 8 6 2 5 1 4 3 360764 sorted by OBP, lowest to highest

3.984 9 8 7 1 2 6 5 4 3 360269 sorted by OPS, lowest to highest

Nothing too surprising here. The most obviously good ones are pretty near the top and the perversely bad ones are near the bottom. So what were the best and worst lineups in the National League? Here are the 10 best:

RUNS ----- LINEUP ----

4.143 1 3 2 5 4 6 7 9 8

4.142 1 3 2 5 4 6 8 7 9

4.142 1 3 4 2 5 6 7 9 8

4.142 1 3 4 5 2 6 7 9 8

4.140 1 3 4 2 5 6 8 7 9

4.140 1 3 4 5 2 6 8 7 9

4.139 1 3 2 5 4 6 7 8 9

4.138 1 2 4 3 5 6 8 7 9

4.138 1 2 5 3 4 6 8 7 9

4.138 1 3 4 5 6 2 7 9 8

Notice that these lineups are very similar to each other, and very similar to the typical ordering. The top one has no hitter more than one position removed from his "normal" place.

The ten worst:

RUNS ----- LINEUP ----

3.967 8 9 2 6 1 7 5 4 3

3.967 7 8 1 9 6 5 2 4 3

3.967 7 8 1 9 2 5 6 4 3

3.967 2 8 1 9 6 7 5 4 3

3.968 8 9 2 6 1 7 4 5 3

3.968 8 9 2 1 7 5 6 4 3

3.968 8 9 2 1 6 7 5 4 3

3.968 8 7 1 9 6 5 2 4 3

3.968 8 7 1 9 2 6 5 4 3

3.968 8 7 1 9 2 5 6 4 3

What about the AL? Let's start once more with some likely candidates:

RUNS ----- LINEUP ---- RANK

4.477 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 516 the traditional one

4.466 3 4 5 1 2 6 7 8 9 8653 sorted by OBP, highest to lowest

4.476 4 3 5 6 2 1 7 8 9 730 sorted by OPS, highest to lowest

4.408 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 340055 reverse traditional

4.398 9 8 7 6 2 1 5 4 3 359066 sorted by OBP, lowest to highest

4.390 9 8 7 1 2 6 5 3 4 362546 sorted by OPS, lowest to highest

Very similar results here. The best lineups:

RUNS ----- LINEUP ----

4.488 5 2 4 3 1 6 7 8 9

4.488 5 2 4 3 1 7 6 8 9

4.487 5 2 4 3 1 6 8 7 9

4.486 1 2 4 3 5 7 6 8 9

4.486 5 1 4 3 6 2 7 8 9

4.485 1 2 4 3 5 6 7 8 9

4.485 1 2 4 3 5 6 8 7 9

4.485 5 1 4 3 2 7 6 8 9

4.485 5 1 4 3 6 2 8 7 9

4.485 5 1 4 3 6 7 2 8 9

There are some weird ones here, but also some that are extremely similar to the traditional one.

And the worst:

RUNS ----- LINEUP ----

4.380 2 9 1 7 8 6 5 4 3

4.380 2 9 1 7 8 6 5 3 4

4.381 9 8 1 7 2 6 5 4 3

4.381 2 9 1 7 8 6 3 5 4

4.381 2 9 1 7 8 5 6 4 3

4.381 2 9 1 7 8 5 6 3 4

4.382 9 8 1 7 2 6 5 3 4

4.382 2 9 1 7 8 6 4 5 3

4.382 2 8 1 9 7 6 5 4 3

4.382 2 8 1 7 9 6 5 4 3

http://fansofdmb.yuku.com/topic/1526#.TkFHGGFLcTk

So that is a .176 difference between the best and worst lineups. You really think just moving Hardy is going to jump the needle?

[DuffMan]

I'm just amazed that he keeps trotting Guerrero out there in the 4 spot. What the Buck!?!

[SammyBirdland]

I'm just amazed that he keeps trotting Guerrero out there in the 4 spot. What the Buck!?!

Pro's before O's. Do whatever it takes to not offend the veteran player, at the expense of the team.

[Sports Guy]

I would still like to see Nick hitting first and Wieters hitting third.