Bat Hardy 3rd and Jones 4th

[Sports Guy]

Isn't that what almost all lineups do anyway? It's one thing if you argue that Vlad shouldn't be playing at all. But the difference between him batting 4th and him batting 7th is really only a couple of runs a year. It's really the difference between him getting 550 PAs instead of 510 or something, plus the impact of him not wanting to bat 7th (which IMO is negligible).

But then don't tell me that lineups don't matter.

[DrungoHazewood]

And 2-3 wins are important, especially if you are fighting for a playoff spot.

To say lineups don't matter is bs to me....A few extra wins could be very important.

Sure. But that 2-3 wins is the difference between a great lineup and a terrible one. The O's aren't batting Andino 4th. They're not leading off Matt Wieters. The difference between any two reasonable lineups is probably 2-3 runs a year.

[DrungoHazewood]

But then don't tell me that lineups don't matter.

Ok, you got me. You can get a pretty big advantage over the competition if you bat the pitcher 9th and he bats the pitcher 4th.

[Sports Guy]

Sure. But that 2-3 wins is the difference between a great lineup and a terrible one. The O's aren't batting Andino 4th. They're not leading off Matt Wieters. The difference between any two reasonable lineups is probably 2-3 runs a year.

I can maybe get behind that when you use the word reasonable but to make the general comment that they don't matter, is wrong.

I do think it is pretty foolish to discount the possibility that some guys may be more or less effective batting in certain areas of the lineup though.

[Sports Guy]

So Drungo, if the Orioles batted Izzy and Pie 1st and second and they got around 700 plate appearances and Nick and Adam 8th and 9th and they were only able to get around 650ish plate apperances, you think that the Orioles team that did that would only lose 2-3 more games than one where those guys bat at the bottom and Nick and Adam at the top?

[El Gordo]

I think the lineup matters in that we have no MOO bat. I don't care whether you bat him #3 or #4, just so long as we get one. I also think it is important to have a true leadoff hitter like BRob used to be. Beyond that I agree with Drungo, that it makes little statistical difference who bats where. How ever since it makes little difference, why not try to bat people where they feel most comfortable, or where a SSS shows them likely to be effective, or even when you just have a hunch?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think the lineup matters in that we have no MOO bat. I don't care whether you bat him #3 or #4, just so long as we get one. I also think it is important to have a true leadoff hitter like BRob used to be. Beyond that I agree with Drungo, that it makes little statistical difference who bats where. How ever since it makes little difference, why not try to bat people where they feel most comfortable, or where a SSS shows them likely to be effective, or even when you just have a hunch?

As long as the top five hitters are in the top five spots it likely doesn't matter very much.

[El Gordo]

As long as the top five hitters are in the top five spots it likely doesn't matter very much.

I'd argue that the lead off spot is important(although if he is a true leadoff hitter he will be one of your top 5) in that the first inning is where the SP is most vulnerable. Having a guy who will see a lot of pitches, get on base and be a threat to steal, is important IMO. Getting to a pitcher early before he establishes his rythm usually means a W.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'd argue that the lead off spot is important(although if he is a true leadoff hitter he will be one of your top 5) in that the first inning is where the SP is most vulnerable. Having a guy who will see a lot of pitches, get on base and be a threat to steal, is important IMO. Getting to a pitcher early before he establishes his rythm usually means a W.

Yeah, I agree with all of that. I never really understood staggering the lineup with L/R hitters. It seams to me the best strategy is to knockout the starter as quickly as possible and that should often entail stacking the lineup/platooning. I'm in the Maddon camp where 130 different lineups a year is about right.

[CA-ORIOLE]

What we have is the results of a bunch of different simulations, as well as a bunch of studies on lineup protection and the like, all of which show that the difference between an optimized lineup and another decent lineup (i.e. not batting the pitcher 3rd, or Cesar Izturis leadoff) is very small. On the order of a few runs a season.

Lineup protection is an interesting one in this case. I suspect it was ignored. Since this discussion has essentially boiled down to squeezing a few runs here and there, I wouldn't be so quick to discount it. While the studies do show performance (value in accordance with woba) is not signifcantly changed by protection, it does show that the OBP/SLG compostion can be slightly changed. That could have some minor impact on team runs depending on the strength of the overall lineup. I have never seen a study on that.

[El Gordo]

Yeah, I agree with all of that. I never really understood staggering the lineup with L/R hitters. It seams to me the best strategy is to knockout the starter as quickly as possible and that should often entail stacking the lineup/platooning. I'm in the Maddon camp where 130 different lineups a year is about right.

That's fine if you have the players. Do we?

[DrungoHazewood]

So Drungo, if the Orioles batted Izzy and Pie 1st and second and they got around 700 plate appearances and Nick and Adam 8th and 9th and they were only able to get around 650ish plate apperances, you think that the Orioles team that did that would only lose 2-3 more games than one where those guys bat at the bottom and Nick and Adam at the top?

It might be a bit more than that, but you've hypothesized about as extreme a lineup difference as could possibly exist using the Orioles.

Per 100 PAs Adam Jones creates about 12 runs. Izturis creates a little less than 9. If batting Izturis 1st and Jones 9th gives Izturis 100 more PAs the difference is three or four runs, or less than half a win.

[Sports Guy]

It might be a bit more than that, but you've hypothesized about as extreme a lineup difference as could possibly exist using the Orioles.Per 100 PAs Adam Jones creates about 12 runs. Izturis creates a little less than 9. If batting Izturis 1st and Jones 9th gives Izturis 100 more PAs the difference is three or four runs, or less than half a win.

Yea but you said the differenxce between a great lineup and a terrible lineup.

So, are you saying that within "terrible lineup", that there are also varying degrees of terrible?(not trying to be a smart ass here, I am really curious)

[DrungoHazewood]

Yea but you said the differenxce between a great lineup and a terrible lineup.

So, are you saying that within "terrible lineup", that there are also varying degrees of terrible?(not trying to be a smart ass here, I am really curious)

All I'm saying is that simulations suggest that a completely ridiculous lineup that nobody would use in real life (like, pitcher batting cleanup and Izturis 3rd) would be 2, 3, 4 wins worse than a great lineup, optimized by Tom Tango's Book. So any minor changes in either terrible or great lineups would be some small fraction of ~3 wins.

[CA-ORIOLE]

That's fine if you have the players. Do we?

Guys like Pie and Scott have been effective in the past against RHP. I'm not sure they were optimized. Even dropping a guy down or sitting a guy like Vlad against a though RHP could help. Having a guy like Izzy as a bench player certainly doesn't help. I've seen us overexpose a guy like Wigginton against RHP in the past and probably Vladdy now. Some of this involves helping yourself and getting good role players. I agree we're in a tough spot with the roster right now.