BA: Adam Jones 2nd best defensive OF in the AL

[EddieMurrayfan]

Adam Jones is not as bad as many here posting have said. He's actually pretty good. AL managers think so any way. I'm glad to have him and wold only consider trading him if we got a haul in return. He still has upside.

Granderson is a guy I would consider average. Certainly that is what he was in Detroit. Yeah he is having a career (Brady Anderson 50 Homer type) year, but just watching him over the years he is not that good. He is playing way above his norm this year. Don't see him repeating this in the future.

[Sanfran327]

Preposterous!! There's no way AJ is a good fielder. The computers say he's lousy, and besides, what do managers know anyway???

I think Jones is much more deserving of Frobby's 6/51 deal for Wieters than Matt is. Frankly, I think we'd be smart to offer that to him sometime around Thanksgiving.

[Sports Guy]

Well, the managers are wrong.

I also think FG is wrong but he is no better than average defensively.

[Sports Guy]

I tend to agree with this. If you have too vastly different opinions, the truth is usually somewhere in the middle. Overall though, my main thought is while Jones in CF might not be as good as wish it was; it is also not one of the many real problems the O's have to deal with.

Ehhh, I disagree with this but for different reasons than what you are stating.

1) Jones should be move to LF IMO. If you want him to do that, you then have to find a better CFer...You also have to deal with him being pissed about it, which I am sure he would be.

2) If they do move him out of CF and you do upset him, how does that effect potential extension talks?

3) If the Orioles have no interest in moving him but believe he is average at best defensively, how much does that effect your offer to him extension wise?

And also, if he does win a GG this year, how much does that up his price tag?

Personally, I think him winning a GG would be amazing because I think they should trade him and that will make him more marketable in all likelihood.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Not sure why people can't grasp that one year of UZR data is relatively unstable, but 3 years isn't. Jones is likely an average to below average defensive CF'r. That's what the numbers say and that's what I see. Good arm not so good range. No way is he the 2nd best CF in the Majors.

[scOtt]

Ehhh, I disagree with this but for different reasons than what you are stating.

1) Jones should be move to LF IMO. If you want him to do that, you then have to find a better CFer...You also have to deal with him being pissed about it, which I am sure he would be.

2) If they do move him out of CF and you do upset him, how does that effect potential extension talks?

3) If the Orioles have no interest in moving him but believe he is average at best defensively, how much does that effect your offer to him extension wise?

And also, if he does win a GG this year, how much does that up his price tag?

Personally, I think him winning a GG would be amazing because I think they should trade him and that will make him more marketable in all likelihood.

That and a potential 30 HR season.

[Hank Scorpio]

Something tells me that if the fielding metrics had Jones as the #1 CF and the AL managers had him last, that wildcard would be lauding the metrics and discounting the managers.

Noooooooooooooo question about it.

[AgentOrange]

If Jones is a league average CF with the glove, then he is one of the best CF in the game.

[Hank Scorpio]

If Jones is a league average CF with the glove, then he is one of the best CF in the game.

He'd be a better corner OF defensively.

[Frobby]

I know Granderson got a lot of love early, but Jacoby Ellsbury is having the best season on any CF in the AL. He has been worth 5.7 WAR to Granderson's 5.2 and Adam Jones 3.0. Does anyone know how runs scored effects WAR? I hope it doesn't effect it at all and a stat like OBP trumps runs scored since runs scored is usually tied to who is hitting behind you and how they perform.

Runs scored does not affect WAR at all. The offensive component is based solely on the things within your own control, including baserunning. Obviously Ellsbury gets some good credit for that in addition to his all-around excellent offensive play this year. He's really doing it all.

[wildcard]

Something tells me that if the fielding metrics had Jones as the #1 CF and the AL managers had him last, that wildcard would be lauding the metrics and discounting the managers.

Have you ever seen me laud Fangraphs stats, ever? I think you are wrong. I did my research on Fangraphs and found it to be in the "Not to be trusted" column. I would not say that Fangraphs is always wrong. Just wrong enough that I can't trust them to be right.

[srock]

BBRef has him with a -1.7 dWar at the moment. I think this is preposterous. Personally, I don't think dWar is very good with less then a full season of data, better with at least 2.

On the other hand, 2nd best in the AL seems like a stretch. Jones isn't a bad OF (improving as well) but he certainly isn't elite.

[Babypowder]

One of them is based off of random numbers and the other is based on actually watching a guy play. All of this Adam Jones is below average defensively talk is pretty funny IMO. Is he Ken Griffey Jr? No. I think he could be like Torii Hunter. Besides, if someone were to look at the entire package a player brought to the table than Adam Jones would be really close to elite in terms of a center fielder IMO. When this guy becomes a free agent I think we are really going to see how high the demand will be for his services. Jones might be really good right now. He might be great in 2-3 years when he hits his prime.

I know Granderson got a lot of love early, but Jacoby Ellsbury is having the best season on any CF in the AL. He has been worth 5.7 WAR to Granderson's 5.2 and Adam Jones 3.0. Does anyone know how runs scored effects WAR? I hope it doesn't effect it at all and a stat like OBP trumps runs scored since runs scored is usually tied to who is hitting behind you and how they perform. From glancing around and again the eyeball test, I am really impressed with Ellsbury's fielding. Jones is right there with Granderson and he is not considered to be a below average fielder.

If you don't like defensive metrics, you don't like WAR either.

[DrOrioles90210]

I did my research on Fangraphs and found it to be in the "Not to be trusted" column.

What was this research exactly?

Of those people agreeing with fangraphs who have also tried to explain why the numbers might be correct, they seem to always note bad jumps and bad routes to the ball. Jones seems to make difficult plays (diving, running into the wall, etc.), but is it possible that while he looks good at making difficult plays (eye test, managers opinion) those would be plays for other CFs who get good jumps and take good routes that they wouldn't have to dive for or make on the run? In other words, what make Jones look like a good CF is actually caused by what makes him a bad CF. Hence, the difference in eye test versus fangraphs.

[wildcard]

What was this research exactly?

Of those people agreeing with fangraphs who have also tried to explain why the numbers might be correct, they seem to always note bad jumps and bad routes to the ball. Jones seems to make difficult plays (diving, running into the wall, etc.), but is it possible that while he looks good at making difficult plays (eye test, managers opinion) those would be plays for other CFs who get good jumps and take good routes that they wouldn't have to dive for or make on the run? In other words, what make Jones look like a good CF is actually caused by what makes him a bad CF. Hence, the difference in eye test versus fangraphs.

What it comes down to for me is that the Fangraphs stats that make up UZR are subjective. The reviewers that rate whether fielder are in zone/out of zone are all subjective. However the numbers are pretty much used by many like batting averages or OPS are. Which is very misleading.

If I have to take the word of the AL Managers subjectivity or Fangraphs reviewers. I go with the AL Managers. They have dedicated their lives to evaluating players. We don't even know who the reviewers at Fangraphs are.