BA: Adam Jones 2nd best defensive OF in the AL

[Malike]

Defensive metrics are so frustrating. I know they are working hard to improve them, but right now they just aren't where they need to be. Oh, and Adam Jones is not the 2nd best OF defender in the league. He might be the second best on his team, though.

[SrMeowMeow]

OT, sorta: Is anyone else shocked that Fangraphs thinks that ARod is the best defensive third baseman in the league?

I mean, they clearly do not think that. That's the whole point of this sample size/stability debate.

[ShaneDawg85]

I'm not sure that I buy it, but even if I did it's irrelevant, because Granderson or somebody else will win the Gold Glove based on their offensive performance.

[Hallas]

Thanks for the reply. What makes one year's worth of info unstable though? Are we saying that it could be inaccurate? If so, why does repeating that info for three years suddenly make it accurate?

Each defensive play has a very wide variance in expected outcome vs. Actual outcome. For example, if Adam Jones catches a liner that only 20% of outfielders get to, he saves a double or triple, creating a very large swing in runs saved. Furthermore, a batter has ~700 plate appearances to judge him by. A defender gets fewer chances.

[crissfan172]

I'm not sure that I buy it, but even if I did it's irrelevant, because Granderson or somebody else will win the Gold Glove based on their offensive performance.

AL managers voted in this poll.

AL managers (and coaches) vote for the award.

I'm thinking these are solid predictions for who will win Gold Gloves this year.

[GoldGlove21]

Runs scored does not affect WAR at all. The offensive component is based solely on the things within your own control, including baserunning. Obviously Ellsbury gets some good credit for that in addition to his all-around excellent offensive play this year. He's really doing it all.

Thank Frobby, rep to you.

[GoldGlove21]

Also, since the word of AL Managers is apparently gospel, I guess Rafael Palmeiro really was the best first baseman in the league the year he played about 20 games there.

Not saying a Managers poll is gospel, but what would be the best poll? One of the players? Kind of like what the NFL did this past offseason. I would be interested to see those numbers. That being said, can a manager not have an opinion on players? Do you think the manager doesn't hear the chatter in the dugout about players? I mean, I am sure there are times when a guy drives one to the wall and Jones makes a great catch, the guy comes back to the dugout and says "Man, that kid can go get em'".

[GoldGlove21]

For everyone saying Jones is better than what UZR states, what part of Jones's defense (besides flashy plays) makes you believe he is an average defensive CF?

You mean outside of the flashy plays? How about the rocket he has for an arm? If the Gold Glove is given out for defense and fielding than Ellsbury and Jones are the favorites at this point. If it goes to a guy who is really the best fielder than that great glove man in Seattle gets my vote.

[DrOrioles90210]

I'm not sure that I buy it, but even if I did it's irrelevant, because Granderson or somebody else will win the Gold Glove based on their offensive performance.

Hasn't this been said enough? Every thread that mentions defense ends up here. No one even mentioned Gold Gloves before this.

[DrOrioles90210]

You mean outside of the flashy plays?

Yeah, that's what I meant when I said besides the flashy plays.

How about the rocket he has for an arm?

I'll admit he has a strong arm but I've never been impressed with how he chooses to use it. He always tries to make his throws reach in the air which takes away from his strong arm.

[DrungoHazewood]

Not saying a Managers poll is gospel, but what would be the best poll? One of the players? Kind of like what the NFL did this past offseason. I would be interested to see those numbers. That being said, can a manager not have an opinion on players? Do you think the manager doesn't hear the chatter in the dugout about players? I mean, I am sure there are times when a guy drives one to the wall and Jones makes a great catch, the guy comes back to the dugout and says "Man, that kid can go get em'".

Tom Tango's fan poll. If you have to use a poll, I think a poll of mostly well-(baseball)-educated fans rating only the team(s) they know well would be best.

Gold Glove voting is utterly messed up. First it asks managers to rate players, some of whom they've only seen a handful of times over the last six months. Second, the managers often don't care or don't have time and delegate it to someone else. Third, it's an open plurality, there's no eligibility criteria, no list of candidates, so you're asking the manager or his delegate to free-associate who he happens to remember playing good defense just on memory. Fourth, you're limiting yourself to managers - guys who're paid to win baseball games, not judge all of the fielders across the league. You're excluding media, front office guys, writers, sabermetricians, fans - why limit yourself to guys whose job description is only very slightly involved in judging fielders? It's surprising a system that screwed up gets it right as often as it does.

[Sanfran327]

Tom Tango's fan poll. If you have to use a poll, I think a poll of mostly well-(baseball)-educated fans rating only the team(s) they know well would be best.

Gold Glove voting is utterly messed up. First it asks managers to rate players, some of whom they've only seen a handful of times over the last six months. Second, the managers often don't care or don't have time and delegate it to someone else. Third, it's an open plurality, there's no eligibility criteria, no list of candidates, so you're asking the manager or his delegate to free-associate who he happens to remember playing good defense just on memory. Fourth, you're limiting yourself to managers - guys who're paid to win baseball games, not judge all of the fielders across the league. You're excluding media, front office guys, writers, sabermetricians, fans - why limit yourself to guys whose job description is only very slightly involved in judging fielders? It's surprising a system that screwed up gets it right as often as it does.

Is it possible then that it's not really that messed up?

Sometimes I feel like we overcomplicate things a bit around here. Kind of like baseball snobs.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is it possible then that it's not really that messed up?

Sometimes I feel like we overcomplicate things a bit around here. Kind of like baseball snobs.

If the goal of the Gold Gloves is to reward the players who, through casual observation, appear to be pretty good defenders while hitting well enough to play regularly in the majors, it does an ok job. Then again, so would a poll of six guys in a sports bar.

If the goal is to consistenly identify the best defensive players in the majors, it's an abject failure.