Prince could accept 3 year deal

[Moose Milligan]

The more this drags out, I have to admit, the better chance the Orioles have.

The Cubs? Out. They are in a total rebuild mode

The Rangers? Out. They posted 51 million for Darvish, and wil take 70-90 million to sign him, and they still want to lock up Hamilton and their young pitchers.

The Nationals? Out. It would be foolish for them to make a run at Prince. They need to lock up both Zimmermans, and their other young talent. If they sign Prince, the price tag would be north of 150 million, and that would be 300 million locked up between right field and 1st base. I'm calling it now, they're out.

The Mariners? We have heard they are interested, but I get the feeling that their GM just has "interest with Fielder". Actually, he might think that Smoak will give them the production that Prince will eventually for very cheap dollars. I believe that they will shy away from big contracts, al la, Adrian Beltre. They aren't out.

The Brewers? I could see Prince going back, but he can get better money somewhere else, and in a better hitters park. Although he is comfortable with the Brewers, he wont be with the Brew Crew in 2012.

That leaves the Orioles. A team desperate for winning, looking for a solid first base man, and looking to add winning pieces. This team is a young talented team, that needs to make a few more moves before they can contend. Getting Prince, would make our offense above average, and if we upgrade the pitching staff, and our young arms keep maturing and getting better, we could have something special. Baltimore is a hitters park, and Fielder's talents would be showcased in NY and BOS, he would be with the best of the best, and that's what Fielder lives for, he is a competitive guy. If the money is right, look for Prince to be in Black and Orange. ESPNxm said that the team that signs prince will have a regional TV network that they can use the funds of, much like LAA did with FOX and Pujols.

If I'm Prince I go back to Milwaukee for less money than going to Baltimore.

Your outline is true, however it leaves out the possibility for a sleeper team to come to the forefront and get him. Remember how the Yankees swooped in last minute and got Tex? Remember how the Angels just swooped in and grabbed Pujols? The possibility of the unknown exists.

Seriously, if I'm a big league super star with options I go anywhere other than Baltimore. Put yourself in Prince Fielder's shoes and ask yourself why you'd consider coming to a franchise like this if all deals on your table are similar.

[GoldGlove21]

If I'm Prince I go back to Milwaukee for less money than going to Baltimore.

Your outline is true, however it leaves out the possibility for a sleeper team to come to the forefront and get him. Remember how the Yankees swooped in last minute and got Tex? Remember how the Angels just swooped in and grabbed Pujols? The possibility of the unknown exists.

Seriously, if I'm a big league super star with options I go anywhere other than Baltimore. Put yourself in Prince Fielder's shoes and ask yourself why you'd consider coming to a franchise like this if all deals on your table are similar.

I wouldn't be shocked to see a team like the Yankees swoop in and grab him to DH. I also wouldn't be shocked if the Blue Jays made a run for him. One would have to think that the Orioles have a better shot at Fielder at this point than they did Tex.

[Frobby]

Frobby, you love Boswell, don't you?

As for Fielder, I am really amazed how little buzz there has been for him and how slow the market is for him.

Well, the Washington Post is my home newspaper, I read the sports pages at breakfast every day, and I've been reading Boswell for about 35 years, including when he was the beat reporter for the Orioles and then principal baseball columnist during the period when the O's were still a great team. To the extent that the Orioles developed a strong following in DC after the Senators moved away, Tom Boswell was largely responsible due to his fabulous coverage of the team in that era.

He has lost a little speed off his fastball, and his views on the Orioles tend to be a bit tinted at times due to his hatred for Peter Angelos, but he is still a gifted writer and can exrpess his opinons far more articulately and intelligently than any of the Sun's writers.

As to Fielder, I feel market conditions are such that we could actually have a shot at him at a price that isn't certifiably insane. It will be an interesting story over the next few weeks. I suspect Boswell is right that Boras may wait for Texas to deal with Darvish before he has Fielder sign on the dotted line.

[DrungoHazewood]

He's better than Dunn as he hits for average, walks more and K's less.

And he's much better defensively and he has more passion for the game.

Through age 27:

Fielder walks in 13.4% of PAs, Dunn 16.5%. Advantage Dunn.

Fielder hit .282, Dunn .248. Advantage Dunn. (Fielder had very slight advantages in OBP, SLG, and OPS)

Dunn struck out in 27% of PA, Fielder in 19%. (But this also led to Fielder GIDPing 50% more than Dunn)

He is actually a very good base runner, believe it or not.

I did not say he was FAST, but that he was a good smart base runner.

By bb-ref's baserunning runs Fielder -28 through age, Dunn at that age was +1.

Totaling it all up, through age 27 Dunn and Fielder were both worth about 20 wins. That is, not including the +7498 wins Fielder gets for being more passionate about the game.

[Sports Guy]

Through age 27:

Fielder walks in 13.4% of PAs, Dunn 16.5%. Advantage Dunn.

Fielder hit .282, Dunn .248. Advantage Dunn. (Fielder had very slight advantages in OBP, SLG, and OPS)

Dunn struck out in 27% of PA, Fielder in 19%. (But this also led to Fielder GIDPing 50% more than Dunn)

By bb-ref's baserunning runs Fielder -28 through age, Dunn at that age was +1.

Totaling it all up, through age 27 Dunn and Fielder were both worth about 20 wins. That is, not including the +7498 wins Fielder gets for being more passionate about the game.

I assume this is a typo?

[.500_OR_BETTER]

I wouldn't be shocked to see a team like the Yankees swoop in and grab him to DH. I also wouldn't be shocked if the Blue Jays made a run for him. One would have to think that the Orioles have a better shot at Fielder at this point than they did Tex.

No I don't see that happening at all.

Boras is trying to sell him as someone who you can build your team around and that he's open to going to team who is in that building phase and see's themselves ready to contend in 2+ years.

I take it that Boras knows that his best shot at a 7-10 year deal are .500 and under teams.

[DrungoHazewood]

I assume this is a typo?

Oops, yes. Fielder has an advantage in batting average.

[weams]

Oops, yes. Fielder has an advantage in batting average.

But really, they are worth the exact same wins through age 27? How about that.

[RHall31]

Give him 3 years at 30 mil per and be done with it!

[JTrea81]

But really, they are worth the exact same wins through age 27? How about that.

Fielder has been worth 1.8 fWAR better than Dunn through age 27.

Fielder is on a better trajectory in his WAR graph.

Teixeira and Fielder are just about on the same path right now age wise.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=319,4613,1281

[Malike]

Fielder has ben worth 1.8 fWAR better than Dunn through age 27.

Fielder is on a better trajectory in his WAR graph.

Teixiera and Fielder are just about on the same path right now age wise.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=319,4613,1281

Fielder will not be as valuable as Teixiera due to his defensive liabilities. I prefer rWAR totals, it accounts for baserunning if I'm remembering correctly where as fWar doesn't. I know there is about a 25 point difference in Brooks Robinsons' rWAR and fWAR, so the baseline for replacement must be much different? I honestly don't know. I guess I will stick with gWAR.

[weams]

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You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Malike again.

[JTrea81]

Fielder will not be as valuable as Teixiera due to his defensive liabilities. I prefer rWAR totals, it accounts for baserunning if I'm remembering correctly where as fWar doesn't. I know there is about a 25 point difference in Brooks Robinsons' rWAR and fWAR, so the baseline for replacement must be much different? I honestly don't know. I guess I will stick with gWAR.

rWAR uses Total Zone for defense which is a huge component of WAR and TZ is much less accurate than UZR.

[Sports Guy]

The bottom line is for the next 4 years, the Orioles should get anywhere from 12-20 WAR out of Fielder.

The 2 years after that, they probably get around 4-5 WAR total.

Any years after that will likely be worth no more than 2 WAR a year.

If they signed him to 6 years, I think the best case would be 25 WAR, which will be worth 110-125M, depending on what the value of a win does.

I am ok with paying him 6/140. Its an overpay but not a drastic one and not one that would cripple us.

Anything more than that and you are entering stupidity land.

I would also give him an opt out clause after 4 years.

[Malike]

rWAR uses Total Zone for defense which is a huge component of WAR and TZ is much less accurate than UZR.

From some reading I have been doing it seems that rWAR better evaluates position players and fWAR better evaluates pitchers. I don't know though. It seems there are two pretty strong views on which is better and why.