Law's Top 100

[CamdenTerp]

To me the concern over the pitch count debate regardless of age comes down to two things. Conditioning and Mechanics. As we have all heard, Dylan has a tremendous regimen that has worked for him and his conditioning. According to most of what I have read his mechanics are smooth. Do you really want anybody going out and throwing that many pitches on a regular basis? No of course not, but in Dylan's case I truly believe there isn't as much to worry about concerning these "4 days".

[Stotle]

To me the concern over the pitch count debate regardless of age comes down to two things. Conditioning and Mechanics. As we have all heard, Dylan has a tremendous regimen that has worked for him and his conditioning. According to most of what I have read his mechanics are smooth. Do you really want anybody going out and throwing that many pitches on a regular basis? No of course not, but in Dylan's case I truly believe there isn't as much to worry about concerning these "4 days".

As part of my "training" I spoke with a medical professional that specialized in analysis of pitching mechanics in amateurs. I can't go into great detail, but one thing I found interesting was that there was some science to back up the idea that a small span of time -- even a singular outing -- could result in a relatively minor issue with the shoulder that, over time, turns into a major issue. Essentially, even if you are "low risk", there is a threat that one bad physical occurrence can open the door to future issues -- even if your weren't particularly "at risk" prior to the "bad occurrence". There's more to it, but that is the general idea.

[Stotle]

As part of my "training" I spoke with a medical professional that specialized in analysis of pitching mechanics in amateurs. I can't go into great detail, but one thing I found interesting was that there was some science to back up the idea that a small span of time -- even a singular outing -- could result in a relatively minor issue with the shoulder that, over time, turns into a major issue. Essentially, even if you are "low risk", there is a threat that one bad physical occurrence can open the door to future issues -- even if your weren't particularly "at risk" prior to the "bad occurrence". There's more to it, but that is the general idea.

EDIT -- And, to be clear, I really like BOTH Bundy's, and ultimately think they will be durable professional starters. It just so happened that last year was incredibly deep in draft talent, so Dylan's very minor warts dropped him below a few other kids, for me.

[Lucky Jim]

As part of my "training" I spoke with a medical professional that specialized in analysis of pitching mechanics in amateurs. I can't go into great detail, but one thing I found interesting was that there was some science to back up the idea that a small span of time -- even a singular outing -- could result in a relatively minor issue with the shoulder that, over time, turns into a major issue. Essentially, even if you are "low risk", there is a threat that one bad physical occurrence can open the door to future issues -- even if your weren't particularly "at risk" prior to the "bad occurrence". There's more to it, but that is the general idea.

This makes intuitive sense to me.

[CamdenTerp]

As part of my "training" I spoke with a medical professional that specialized in analysis of pitching mechanics in amateurs. I can't go into great detail, but one thing I found interesting was that there was some science to back up the idea that a small span of time -- even a singular outing -- could result in a relatively minor issue with the shoulder that, over time, turns into a major issue. Essentially, even if you are "low risk", there is a threat that one bad physical occurrence can open the door to future issues -- even if your weren't particularly "at risk" prior to the "bad occurrence". There's more to it, but that is the general idea.

I can understand this point of view. It is hard to pinpoint any one occurrence to a pitching arm injury most of the time. Unless you are Dave Dravecky. Even Cole Hamels broke his arm in HS when he pitched for Rancho Bernardo HS in 2000 and went on to have a good career.

I know we are talking specifically about the shoulder, but I think the singular outing could be bad "if" there is a lack of conditioning and the arm gets tired. Obviously at this point the elbow starts to drop which could be cause for concern that is why I was citing the proper mechanics and conditioning to combat that from happening.

I like to hear all sides on this because this topic is very interesting to me.

[DrungoHazewood]

To be exact, it was actually 181 pitches - and he threw 112 pitches in a start 3 days earlier, so make that a total of 293 pitches within 4 days.

Pitchers used to regularly throw 350+ IP in a season with 40+ CG. Strength and conditioning is the key to keeping pitchers healthy, babying arms is misguided and possibly even dangerous.

Bundy has fluid, repeatable mechanics and he rarely throws at max effort. His workout regime is tailored to strengthening the specific muscles stressed in pitching. He completed his entire high school career without a single major injury. Bundy will single-handedly refute all of the false assumptions about pitching injuries which have ruined so many careers.

The baseball world has much to learn from young Mr. Bundy.

I would have no concerns at all. If this were 1912, the ball was like a wet, nasty beanbag, Ty Cobb led the league in homers with 8, and teams scored 2.5 runs a game.

[Don Quixote]

That seems like a nonsensical comment. Are we expecting Bundy to get taller?

That comment did sound odd, but it's not unreasonable to expect a modest increase in height. He's currently a young 19, and continued increase in height can occur into the early 20s (though, of course, not always). Of course, it would be supremely idiotic to leave him out of the rotation if he has topped out in height, based solely on that.

The point Stotle made about one-time happenings possibly having detrimental effects is quite valid; for now I'll continue to be essentially optimistic.

[BobDylanBundy]

I would have no concerns at all. If this were 1912, the ball was like a wet, nasty beanbag, Ty Cobb led the league in homers with 8, and teams scored 2.5 runs a game.

How about the early/mid 1890's when there were around 5.0-7.5 runs per game??

[TGO]

How about the early/mid 1890's when there were around 5.0-7.5 runs per game??

You mean before gloves?

[Lucky Jim]

I can understand this point of view. It is hard to pinpoint any one occurrence to a pitching arm injury most of the time. Unless you are Dave Dravecky. Even Cole Hamels broke his arm in HS when he pitched for Rancho Bernardo HS in 2000 and went on to have a good career.

I know we are talking specifically about the shoulder, but I think the singular outing could be bad "if" there is a lack of conditioning and the arm gets tired. Obviously at this point the elbow starts to drop which could be cause for concern that is why I was citing the proper mechanics and conditioning to combat that from happening.

I like to hear all sides on this because this topic is very interesting to me.

I think the point here is that arm injuries may not have a dose-response-like linearity. It's possible that a "minor" injury can happen relatively early, with "local" fatigue, and have that become a major injury over time.

[DrungoHazewood]

How about the early/mid 1890's when there were around 5.0-7.5 runs per game??

You mean when the average pitcher peaked in his early to mid 20s and most HOFers were done by 30? Even then it was a totally different game with one baseball used all game, and the league leader in homers in the teens. It was clearly established practice to pace yourself and only throw hard and use your best stuff in the key moments of the game. Sure, Jeremy Guthrie could throw 350 innings a year if Prince Fielder led the league with 17 homers and starters could cruise along throwing 78 mph fastballs most of the game.

[CamdenTerp]

I think the point here is that arm injuries may not have a dose-response-like linearity. It's possible that a "minor" injury can happen relatively early, with "local" fatigue, and have that become a major injury over time.

I can definitely agree with that.

[markdublya]

Am I the only one who didn't know about Bundy throwing 180 pitches in a single game? I'm sure it happens but it's absolutely criminal to put a kid at severe risk like that and jeopardize his dream and a paycheck that could set him up for life.

Reminds me of Kerry Wood's high school having him pitch BOTH games of an important doubleheader right before being drafted....and ultimately getting sued by the Cubs....If I recall correctly...

http://www.jockbio.com/Bios/Wood/Wood_bio.html

But all was not right at Wrigley. Two days before the draft, Kerry threw 175 pitches in a doubleheader with Grand Prairie?s playoff hopes on the line. The Chicago brass was in an uproar.

[BobDylanBundy]

You mean when the average pitcher peaked in his early to mid 20s and most HOFers were done by 30? Even then it was a totally different game with one baseball used all game, and the league leader in homers in the teens. It was clearly established practice to pace yourself and only throw hard and use your best stuff in the key moments of the game. Sure, Jeremy Guthrie could throw 350 innings a year if Prince Fielder led the league with 17 homers and starters could cruise along throwing 78 mph fastballs most of the game.

Yes, you can easily argue many theories about player strategies in that era, and the statistics definitely show they were pitching to contact. However, that still does not escape the relevant points: these pitchers were throwing 100+ pitches per start on less than 4 days rest for 40-50 starts per season without getting hurt.

Innings limits do nothing except prevent the opportunity for injury (at the expense of production/utilization). With the proper training, conditioning, and mechanics, there's no reason why a pitcher's 250th IP needs to be any more 'dangerous' than their 100th. The pitchers at the turn of the 19th century proved it, and Mr. Dylan Bundy shall reteach us their example.

[Lucky Jim]

Yes, you can easily argue many theories about player strategies in that era, and the statistics definitely show they were pitching to contact. However, that still does not escape the relevant points: these pitchers were throwing 100+ pitches per start on less than 4 days rest for 40-50 starts per season without getting hurt.

Innings limits do nothing except prevent the opportunity for injury (at the expense of production/utilization). With the proper training, conditioning, and mechanics, there's no reason why a pitcher's 250th IP needs to be any more 'dangerous' than their 100th. The pitchers at the turn of the 19th century proved it, and Mr. Dylan Bundy shall reteach us their example.

This is counter-intuitive to me for a host of reasons. I'll let others hash it out, but I have a hard time believing it's true. (And readily admit, I'm not expert.)