Keith Law Has O's Taking Gausman

[paulcoates]

Over Giolito? Care to explain?

All the video I saw of Giolito, it seemed as if he has some control problems and Gausman appeared to be far more polished

[allstar1579]

All the video I saw of Giolito, it seemed as if he has some control problems and Gausman appeared to be far more polished

Giolito has pretty good control, especially for a 17 year old that throws 100mph. Gausman has been beat up on a couple times this year.

I've seen Gausman good and I've seen him bad, a bunch of both too. He had 11 WP this year and multiple games with 4+ BB. He would have a stellar game statistically, and then a total stinker so if you just look at the stats it doesn't look bad, but look at game by game.

You are comparing a college kid and a HS kid too. I'd like to think that in 2-3 years at UCLA Giolito will be an unquestioned no. 1 pick (if he wouldn't have been injured he would have been this year) and Gausman is a guy that could go 1-7 in a down year.

[Stotle]

Giolito has pretty good control, especially for a 17 year old that throws 100mph. Gausman has been beat up on a couple times this year.

I've seen Gausman good and I've seen him bad, a bunch of both too. He had 11 WP this year and multiple games with 4+ BB. He would have a stellar game statistically, and then a total stinker so if you just look at the stats it doesn't look bad, but look at game by game.

You are comparing a college kid and a HS kid too. I'd like to think that in 2-3 years at UCLA Giolito will be an unquestioned no. 1 pick (if he wouldn't have been injured he would have been this year) and Gausman is a guy that could go 1-7 in a down year.

Need to be careful about reference to stats in determining draft worth. If you parse them out for Gausman, he looks pretty good in most years. In particular, there are a number of splits that jump out and project very well.

[paulcoates]

Giolito has pretty good control, especially for a 17 year old that throws 100mph. Gausman has been beat up on a couple times this year.

I've seen Gausman good and I've seen him bad, a bunch of both too. He had 11 WP this year and multiple games with 4+ BB. He would have a stellar game statistically, and then a total stinker so if you just look at the stats it doesn't look bad, but look at game by game.

You are comparing a college kid and a HS kid too. I'd like to think that in 2-3 years at UCLA Giolito will be an unquestioned no. 1 pick (if he wouldn't have been injured he would have been this year) and Gausman is a guy that could go 1-7 in a down year.

Part of it is Giolito's control on the videos that I saw. His delivery did not seem real fluid to me, has a very slow delivery, and while I agree that he throws hard, does he have a lot of control? It just didn't look like he did to me. I know that some of the readups I have seen say he has good command, but the video just doesn't show me that.

Also, a bit of a red flag for me is his recent injury. I would be scared to draft a kid in that position if I were the Orioles. Plus, can the Orioles develop a kid like this? Recent history says no.

[paulcoates]

Need to be careful about reference to stats in determining draft worth. If you parse them out for Gausman, he looks pretty good in most years. In particular, there are a number of splits that jump out and project very well.

How hard is Gausman throwing? The few videos I have seen don't have a gun on them, but it looks like he is throwing upper 90's to me

Edit: Looks like he sits around 93-94 and has hit 102mph on the gun? Is that accurate?

[eb45]

From what I've read Gausman sits mostly 92-94 and has touched 99. Giolito is a touch higher on both (at two years younger).

Giolito's control isn't his strong suit, but then it isn't really for Gausman either. As allstar mentioned, Gausman will be lights out on occasion and then have a game where he can't find his release point. I've seen probably the same Gausman video as you (I've seen most of the Gausman video out there) and yeah, he looks really good, but it's kind of scary when you're talking a potential #1 pick who can't really find the zone sometimes.

The thing that worries me about Giolito is that it looks to me in some of the videos (mostly from last summer) like he'll drop his arm a little bit to kind of a low three-quarters and that's when his fastball gets a ton of arm-side run, often so much that it's nowhere near the zone. Can anyone who's more qualified than me tell me if that's at all accurate? Also, I've seen him slow down his arm a little on his changeup, but not all the time.

[allstar1579]

Need to be careful about reference to stats in determining draft worth. If you parse them out for Gausman, he looks pretty good in most years. In particular, there are a number of splits that jump out and project very well.

Yeah, you are right...was TRYING to be objective but not doing a very good job. I saw a couple of his starts where he would go 5 innings with 4/5 BB and give up 3-4 runs with a WP or two, and it just scared me off of him. I've seen him look really good in another start or two and against good competition, so I know that talent is THERE, it's just the consistency that bothers me you know?

How do you weigh stuff like that, when you have seen a guy have a couple bad starts, but other people have seen good starts so what you have to say about him doesn't line up overall?

[allstar1579]

Part of it is Giolito's control on the videos that I saw. His delivery did not seem real fluid to me, has a very slow delivery, and while I agree that he throws hard, does he have a lot of control? It just didn't look like he did to me. I know that some of the readups I have seen say he has good command, but the video just doesn't show me that.

Also, a bit of a red flag for me is his recent injury. I would be scared to draft a kid in that position if I were the Orioles. Plus, can the Orioles develop a kid like this? Recent history says no.

He's not as polished as Bundy, but that is a VERY rare prospect to be as polished as Dylan out of HS, but he's got tools to work with for days. You can't teach velocity, and he's got that to spare. I'd be willing to say right NOW he's more of a thrower than a pitcher, but that's true of MOST HS kids anyway, he'll need some time to learn a feel for how and when to throw his secondaries. I wouldn't say his control is any worse than Gausman though. Both are hard throwers with similar secondaries. Your difference is Gausman has already taken 2 years to improve on his, where Giolito would need 2 years to work on his, but Giolito projects to be better than Gausman is now if he does. It's a good case of this is what you have now, OR you could have this and it COULD be better in 2 years.

Appel throws just as hard, but I like his control more, and he's a cerebral pitcher which I'm kind of a sucker for.

I wouldn't worry about his injury, it was minor in the scheme of things and they were protective of his draft status and played it safe shutting him down for so long. From the sounds of things he's doing just fine now, and it was the elbow, not the shoulder, so it's not as much of a worry for me.

[Stotle]

How hard is Gausman throwing? The few videos I have seen don't have a gun on them, but it looks like he is throwing upper 90's to me

Edit: Looks like he sits around 93-94 and has hit 102mph on the gun? Is that accurate?

He has hit triple-digits multiple times. For me, he was up to 98 in the first three innings, dropped down to 93-95 for the next three. Left in the 7th. Hit 96 in that inning.

[Stotle]

Yeah, you are right...was TRYING to be objective but not doing a very good job. I saw a couple of his starts where he would go 5 innings with 4/5 BB and give up 3-4 runs with a WP or two, and it just scared me off of him. I've seen him look really good in another start or two and against good competition, so I know that talent is THERE, it's just the consistency that bothers me you know?

How do you weigh stuff like that, when you have seen a guy have a couple bad starts, but other people have seen good starts so what you have to say about him doesn't line up overall?

Can't give away the proprietary stuff, but the key is to pinpoint as best you can the root cause of all the major numbers you are looking at for purposes of stat analysis. Gausman isn't someone I'd label as necessarily having control issues, or problems finding the zone.

[baltimoreO's22]

If we take a pitcher, I want Gausman, because he could come up with Bundy and give us a nice 1-2 punch.

[eb45]

If we take a pitcher' date=' I want Gausman, because he could come up with Bundy and give us a nice 1-2 punch.[/quote']

So could Appel. Or Zimmer. Or even Giolito.

[Hutman]

If Gausman is able to get his command together he's definitly a # 2 major league starter.

[Il BuonO]

Over Giolito? Care to explain?

I just watched a couple videos online of Giolito and Gausman. I would take Gausman everyday of the week.

I watched him earlier this year before his injury. Lot of raw talent, but doesn't command his secondary pitches. I think this is all in question because of the injury. The area scout I talk with thinks he'll sign with UCLA.

[baltimoreO's22]

So could Appel. Or Zimmer. Or even Giolito.

Appel could but I don't see him being there, which is why I left him off. Zimmer and Giolito IMO will not come to the MLB as quick as Gausman. I could see both Bundy and Gausman in the MLB by 2014. I see 2015 for Zimmer and 2016 for Giolito. I guess what I was trying to say was both Bundy and Gausman would make the majors the same year, which would be kinda cool.