Is there any answer for Reynolds?

[El Gordo]

I stated earlier that he seems to have left his all or nothing approach and is trying to make contact with two strikes. Perhaps, thats why his HR numbers are down and he's K'ing less. :scratchchinhmm:

Since May 1 he is .329 .453 .632 1.084. At that rate he would project to 36 HR over 162 G. For 500 PA that comes to about 110 K's, 85 BB's, 25 HR, 80 RBI's. I'll take, it I'll take it. :2yay-thumb:

[Il BuonO]

I was just watching highlights of Reynolds plating the first two runs of the game on an 0-2 breaking pitch. I especially enjoyed Billy Ripken calling it the "spinning nothing pitch" that Reynolds didn't miss. Classic.

[OFFNY]

I was just watching highlights of Reynolds plating the first two runs of the game on an 0-2 breaking pitch. I especially enjoyed Billy Ripken calling it the "spinning nothing pitch" that Reynolds didn't miss. Classic.

An 0-2 count with 2 outs and the bases loaded, early in a scoreless game.

That's CLUTCH !!!

[LA2]

Dunn was pretty done last year. He never regressed to the mean.

Dale Murphy was 31 with an OPS of 997 after being over 1000 the prior couple of years. He never again had an OPS over 750. I am sure when he was hitting .225 his age 32 season some said he was toast. He ended up at .226 They would have been right. Then again that fails to take into account the whole birthmark thing.

Jason Bey became awfully bad awfully quick. Dontrelle Willis fell off extremely quickly.

Three outcome guys like Reynolds can just fall off a cliff. And while his OPS looks pretty good right now, we can all agree that of he hits 15 homers this year he hasn't regressed to the mean.

But Dunn certainly has this year; in fact, he's overshooting it by a wide margin. Current OPS: .953 / Career OPS: .879. (.229 / .370 / .583 in 276 PAs.)

Also, your three examples were all 31 years old or over during their steep decline (or, in the case of Dunn, off-year). Mark Reynolds is 28--it matters.

[Flash- bd]

I love this: when Reynolds is going well the complaint is, "but all he does is K and hit HRs" but when he's not hitting HRs everyone says where are the HRs you're supposed to be hitting, Mark? It's quite a double-standard...fact is, it doesn't really matter if Reynolds only hits 15 HRs (although I have little doubt he'll hit more) this year so long as his OPS is where it should be (which I would bet good money it will be).

As for "three outcome guys like Reynolds" falling off cliffs, sure, there are examples, but not many at age 28 with no other major, relevant factors at play. As long as Reynolds stays healthy he's a very good bet to be a .825-.875 (with potential for higher, frankly) OPS guy for the next 3 years. I don't think people remember just how putrid his start was last year. Through 42 games his OPS was .659 and he managed to finish at .806. This year his OPS is at .808 through 42 games. His career high .892 OPS, IMO, is not out of reach this year, given that he's adjusted to the AL and now seemingly comfortable at 1B.

Well, thought this was going to be one of my worst looking comments of the year. With Mark Reynolds' OPS sitting at .819 it no longer looks so bad.

Just amazing what he's done to get back to his regular season levels in a year that seemed pretty lost for him. And that's saying nothing of his defense which has been superb. In retrospect I was a bit rosy saying that he was a very good bet to be .825-.875, but still; I'll take .819 with the defense he's playing all day and twice on Sunday. (Did I get the cliche right?)