Is there any answer for Reynolds?

[Frobby]

Despite only five homers Mark Reynolds is now at his career OPS. Regression wins, again, as always.

I wonder if any claim of a player being "done" after like two bad months has ever been right.

It happens all the time, because if you are done, a season is likely to start with two bad months. But just so there's no mistake here, Reynolds was bad for about four weeks. He got hot the first week of May, got hurt and went on the DL, and has been hot ever since he returned. He just hasn't hit a lot of homers, but he's walked a ton and also has more doubles than normal.

[Flash- bd]

Three outcome guys like Reynolds can just fall off a cliff. And while his OPS looks pretty good right now, we can all agree that of he hits 15 homers this year he hasn't regressed to the mean.

I love this: when Reynolds is going well the complaint is, "but all he does is K and hit HRs" but when he's not hitting HRs everyone says where are the HRs you're supposed to be hitting, Mark? It's quite a double-standard...fact is, it doesn't really matter if Reynolds only hits 15 HRs (although I have little doubt he'll hit more) this year so long as his OPS is where it should be (which I would bet good money it will be).

As for "three outcome guys like Reynolds" falling off cliffs, sure, there are examples, but not many at age 28 with no other major, relevant factors at play. As long as Reynolds stays healthy he's a very good bet to be a .825-.875 (with potential for higher, frankly) OPS guy for the next 3 years. I don't think people remember just how putrid his start was last year. Through 42 games his OPS was .659 and he managed to finish at .806. This year his OPS is at .808 through 42 games. His career high .892 OPS, IMO, is not out of reach this year, given that he's adjusted to the AL and now seemingly comfortable at 1B.

[DrungoHazewood]

I wonder if any claim of a player being "done" after like two bad months has ever been right.

As others have mentioned... yes, a lot. In fact, you could probably field a nice team of Hall of Famers who went from All Star to just about out of the league inside of a year. Johnny Bench had an .850-something OPS in '81, just a normal year for him. .620 on June 1, 1982. He bounced back a little, but was pretty much done, retired the next year. At 33 Boog Powell (no, not a HOFer) had a .901 OPS. On May 31st of his age-34 season he had a .601 and he was done. Mike Schmidt - .647 OPS on May 31st, 1988. He played ok the rest of that year, but was out of baseball early in '89.

It is much less common for a good player in mid-career to slump for a couple months and be truly done.

[baltfan]

I love this: when Reynolds is going well the complaint is, "but all he does is K and hit HRs" but when he's not hitting HRs everyone says where are the HRs you're supposed to be hitting, Mark? It's quite a double-standard...fact is, it doesn't really matter if Reynolds only hits 15 HRs (although I have little doubt he'll hit more) this year so long as his OPS is where it should be (which I would bet good money it will be).

As for "three outcome guys like Reynolds" falling off cliffs, sure, there are examples, but not many at age 28 with no other major, relevant factors at play. As long as Reynolds stays healthy he's a very good bet to be a .825-.875 (with potential for higher, frankly) OPS guy for the next 3 years. I don't think people remember just how putrid his start was last year. Through 42 games his OPS was .659 and he managed to finish at .806. This year his OPS is at .808 through 42 games. His career high .892 OPS, IMO, is not out of reach this year, given that he's adjusted to the AL and now seemingly comfortable at 1B.

?????? People complain that Reynolds hits homeruns? Reynolds OBP is nearly 50 points higher than it has been 3 of the last 4 years. His OPS coming into yesterday was .749. Of course if his OBP stayed at .369 and he hits only 15 home runs he arguably has more value since OBP is more important than slugging. I just don't think the OBP is sustainable, especially if the lack of power leads pitchers to challenge him more.

[EagleOriole]

?????? People complain that Reynolds hits homeruns? Reynolds OBP is nearly 50 points higher than it has been 3 of the last 4 years. His OPS coming into yesterday was .749. Of course if his OBP stayed at .369 and he hits only 15 home runs he arguably has more value since OBP is more important than slugging. I just don't think the OBP is sustainable, especially if the lack of power leads pitchers to challenge him more.

And are we not seeing that when they start to challenge him more he can hit HRs and doubles? He is going to be what he is...if he hits .220 and .340 and hits 30 HRs that is pretty much what he is. He is about to go through a power streak that will make people forget his start...of course, he will start over swinging and then K more and his batting average will go down.

All in all, I will take his production as long as he is not playing 3B.

[bobmc]

Its a lot easier to look at Reynolds face

when he isnt playing third base.

Now he isnt hurting our chance

to make it to a postseason dance!

No more butterfingers

just a guy hitting mammoth dingers!

Holla!

Keep bringing it Robert! LOL

[weams]

Its a lot easier to look at Reynolds face

when he isnt playing third base.

Now he isnt hurting our chance

to make it to a postseason dance!

No more butterfingers

just a guy hitting mammoth dingers!

Holla!

......

tio

[Flash- bd]

Right, and there's frankly no reason to simply assume his average will drop to .220. He's put up averages of .279 and .260 before, and I think it's rather clear his lack of average is generally more down to approach than it is to lack of ability to make contact (it's no surprise in those two years his OBP-AVG differential were .70 and .89 respectively, whereas the other years he's been right around .120.).

I also don't think the possibility that he could put all three skills together (decent average, major OBP, and slugging) should be discounted. He did this to some extent in 2009, but barring a HUGE HR barrage he's not going to hit 44 this year (nor hit the equivalent pace he set that year, taking into account he has missed time this year). However, Mark Reynolds has hit 5 HR in 42 G; it just so happens, last year, he hit 5 HR through 42 games as well and finished with 37. I don't expect him to go on quite the power tear he did last year because I think his overall approach is less HR-focused this year, but he hit 25 HR from June 14 last year until the end of the season, so we shouldn't rule out him hitting 18-20. If he does that along with a higher avg, say, .250 and an OBP of .360 he will be hugely valuable, and put up his highest wOBA since 2009.

As I said, I don't doubt he will do this; I predicted he will finish with an OPS north of .850 and I still believe that will ultimately be the case, barring unforeseen circumstances (injury).

[jiminnj]

6 games in a row coming up in NL parks. No DH, both Reynolds and Davis are hot. Does Buck roll the defensive dice and put Reynolds back at 3B and Davis at 1B? Does he keep Reynolds at 1B and let Davis play 3B? Does he sit one or the other? Not an easy call.

I probably would go with Reynolds at 3B and Davis at 1B for most of the games.

[Rene88]

6 games in a row coming up in NL parks. No DH, both Reynolds and Davis are hot. Does Buck roll the defensive dice and put Reynolds back at 3B and Davis at 1B? Does he keep Reynolds at 1B and let Davis play 3B? Does he sit one or the other? Not an easy call.

I probably would go with Reynolds at 3B and Davis at 1B for most of the games.

Does Annette break up with Paul? Does Paul find out Annette has been cheating on him with Connor? Good questions.

I don't think I could put Mark Reynolds at third regardless of how hot his bat is.

[Frobby]

Reynolds' first 20 games (through May 2): .136/.260/.197, 0 HR, 3 RBI.

Reynolds' next 22 games (May 4 - now): .342/.462/.658, 5 HR, 15 RBI.

He's now been hot longer than he was cold. His stint on the DL kind of distorts his numbers.

It's notable that even when he was ice cold, he was drawing a ton of walks. And he's continued to do that now that he's red hot. He's not one of those guys who heats up and starts swinging at everything.

[MrOrange82]

Reynolds' first 20 games (through May 2): .136/.260/.197, 0 HR, 3 RBI.

Reynolds' next 22 games (May 4 - now): .342/.462/.658, 5 HR, 15 RBI.

He's now been hot longer than he was cold. His stint on the DL kind of distorts his numbers.

It's notable that even when he was ice cold, he was drawing a ton of walks. And he's continued to do that now that he's red hot. He's not one of those guys who heats up and starts swinging at everything.

I know BA isn't a great indicator of how a guy's swinging, but I've never understood how Reynolds could go from three consecutive years of BA's in the .239-.279 range, only to go .198 and .221 over the next two seasons. If he can somehow maintain his OBP while carrying a .250ish BA, I'll be ecstatic.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't think I could put Mark Reynolds at third regardless of how hot his bat is.

Could always pull an Earl and start Tolleson/Flaherty at third and then start pinch hitting about the 5th inning.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I know BA isn't a great indicator of how a guy's swinging, but I've never understood how Reynolds could go from three consecutive years of BA's in the .239-.279 range, only to go .198 and .221 over the next two seasons. If he can somehow maintain his OBP while carrying a .250ish BA, I'll be ecstatic.

From fangraphs (and watching him last year) you can see the his FB% and babip dropped significantly the past two years and also that he was chasing (and hitting) more out of zone pitches. He's been getting a lot more breaking balls. Even this year, he's getting a very high percentage of breaking balls but appears to be making adjustments. Maybe that means less HR's than usual and taking more pitches to the opposite field (which I'm amazed to see him do actually). In any event his wRC+ is 122 right now which is higher than last year and second highest of his career.

[KurtCDavidson]

Right, and there's frankly no reason to simply assume his average will drop to .220. He's put up averages of .279 and .260 before, and I think it's rather clear his lack of average is generally more down to approach than it is to lack of ability to make contact (it's no surprise in those two years his OBP-AVG differential were .70 and .89 respectively, whereas the other years he's been right around .120.).

I also don't think the possibility that he could put all three skills together (decent average, major OBP, and slugging) should be discounted. He did this to some extent in 2009, but barring a HUGE HR barrage he's not going to hit 44 this year (nor hit the equivalent pace he set that year, taking into account he has missed time this year). However, Mark Reynolds has hit 5 HR in 42 G; it just so happens, last year, he hit 5 HR through 42 games as well and finished with 37. I don't expect him to go on quite the power tear he did last year because I think his overall approach is less HR-focused this year, but he hit 25 HR from June 14 last year until the end of the season, so we shouldn't rule out him hitting 18-20. If he does that along with a higher avg, say, .250 and an OBP of .360 he will be hugely valuable, and put up his highest wOBA since 2009.

As I said, I don't doubt he will do this; I predicted he will finish with an OPS north of .850 and I still believe that will ultimately be the case, barring unforeseen circumstances (injury).

I don't think I'm going to post anymore, because you make all of the points that I would. I love Mark Reynolds. Not only because I think he's a good baseball player, but also because he's an interesting baseball player. There really has never been anyone quite like Mark Reynolds in the history of baseball. Throw in the defensive liability and third base and the offensive skills that don't quite fit at 1B or DH and there is a great drama to watch. I think you throw him at first and hope he gets that OPS over .850.