Ok, we need to talk about Keith Law...

[hoosiers]

I get that Pythagorean record is a better predictor of a team's performance going forward than a team's actual record.

Actually, I thought someone just posted an article that a team's actual record is a better predictor than the Pythag going forward.

Regarding Law, I don't think if would take more than a 10-17 finish for us to finish near the 8th best record that he predicts. However, I do think someone like Law should have a significantly better appreciation for what the Os are accomplishing this year. Sure, the NYY have more costly injuries, but the Os are missing key components as well and have found significantly better depth within the organization (Tillman, Machado) and outside the organization (Gonzalez, 2B, McClouth) than the NYY.

Finally, regarding next year, I think on paper our projected team is better than .500 with Hammel, Chen, Tillman and Britton as top 4. I think if DD can add $25M+ in payroll with a good 2B, strong LFer and good SP that we are around 86-88 wins before hoping for improvement from Hardy/Machado offensively. In 2014, we add Schoop and Bundy and probably move Machado to SS. We have tradeable commodities like Hoes, Reimold, Jake, Gausman and Matusz. IMO, overall there is a lot more talent here than we are given credit for.

[Greg]

keithlaw ‏@keithlaw

Nobody does. "@DaveW85: The definition of 'Blue Chip' is my issue. The Jays don't have Prospects (plural) on the level of Bundy/Machado."

Well Law did give the O's some love.

[SilentJames]

Law's reaction to seeing the Orioles tied for first tonight....

[harp6]

I don't see what all this fuss is about Law. I found him to be very knowledgeable. For instance, I think he is exactly on target with this comment that he made.

"This is certainly not the lineup you think the Yankees are going to roll out there in October?"

Yes. You heard Law predict it. At the rate the Yankees are going, they won't be sending a lineup out there in October, Keith.

[24fps]

Grumpy old man. Walter Mathau was a grumpy old man. Sounds more like a snarky adnoidal adolescent to me, Eddie Haskell comes to mind..

Agree here. He sounds like the kid in high school that everyone wanted dead for using up perfectly good oxygen.

[El Gordo]

Agree here. He sounds like the kid in high school that everyone wanted dead for using up perfectly good oxygen.

Riht. An unpopular geeky nerd.

[Va Beach O's fan]

Give him credit - at least he doesn't hide the fact that he's an idiot. He actually says at the beginning that "There is literally nothing that the Orioles can do to convince me that they are a good team. They're the 8th best team in the American League." Nice "analysis".

What a tool. I hope that Buck has this blasting in the locker room.

It's like he doesn't even watch baseball. He really is the worst baseball "analyst" in America, and it isn't even close. He makes Mitch Williams and John Kruk sound like Peter Gammons. Jackwagon.

That's clown podcasting/analysis bro.

[Va Beach O's fan]

BTW, I enjoy this picture of Mr. Law very much. Sums up his baseball knowledge and the EXACT amount to which he should be taken seriously.

[Va Beach O's fan]

Although I was able to find this picture of him as well..........

I'm absolutely 100% sure he is wearing that shirt because it has his name on it and he is that much of an egotistical moron.

Just a little more perspective on the type of guy we are dealing with here.

[Gurgi]

First of all, we really weren't counting on BRob.

The Yankees lost Pineda for the year. Gardner barely played. Pettitte has been on the shelf for months. ARod missed a lot of time. Sabathia has been on the DL, Nova is there now. Rivera has missed most of the year. I'd definitely say the Yankees lost more.

I think this is more to do with roster construction. They were depending upon lots of guys that are close to wearing adult diapers. It is not surprise that lots of them are breaking down. Lots also were stars in the ROIDS era and have Mark McGwire type consistency problems.

[BmoreMatt]

I think Harbs had it right when he quoted Roosevelt.

"It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat."

I'm not mad at ya Keith, but to put it simply, you just don't count. I could not possibly care less what you say because none of it, not one sentence counts.

[ledzepp8]

I don't see what all this fuss is about Law. I found him to be very knowledgeable. For instance, I think he is exactly on target with this comment that he made.

"This is certainly not the lineup you think the Yankees are going to roll out there in October?"

Yes. You heard Law predict it. At the rate the Yankees are going, they won't be sending a lineup out there in October, Keith.

Irrelevant. The Orioles beat the healthy Yankees lineup. They beat the Tigers, they beat the White Sox, etc. Law is a dip**** with a chip on his shoulder.

[BmoreMatt]

Irrelevant. The Orioles beat the healthy Yankees lineup. They beat the Tigers, they beat the White Sox, etc. Law is a dip**** with a chip on his shoulder.

Yep, and just for good measure, we beat the Sux before they imploded.

[Tony-OH]

I get that Pythagorean record is a better predictor of a team's performance going forward than a team's actual record. If all we knew about the O's were their actual and Pythagorean records up to this point of the season, we'd probably label the O's as the team most likely to come back to earth.

But what the Pythagorean record misses is that the Orioles now are a much better team than the Orioles of the first half. Our mediocre run differential was compiled mostly by a team that had Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz and Jake Arietta in the rotation, Wilson Betemit at third base, Chris Davis in left field, JJ Hardy and Mark Reynolds in terrible slumps, and Nick Markakis either in a mild slump or on the DL.

In this case, run differential has no predictive value for what the O's can do going forward. The team we're seeing on the field now is a very good team that ironically is built exactly on Earl Weaver's principles--outstanding pitching, outstanding defense and power hitting.

Agreed. The team the Orioles are putting on the field right now far exceeds the team earlier in the year, ESPECIALLY defensively. With Machado at third, McClouth in left and Andino at second, this team doesn't have a weak spot defensively any longer. For me, along with the emergence of Tillman, Gonzalez, and Britton, it's the reason I believe in this team.

[Floater]

keithlaw ‏@keithlaw

Hater "@cwyers: anything can happen between now and the end of the season, but I think the Yankees are a better team than the Orioles."