Orioles are one of the teams that the Twins have contacted in regards to Justin Morneau

[Frobby]

Wilson Betemit had an OPS of .859 vs. RHPs in 2012. He is under contract for 2013 for about $2m and is already on the team.

Justin Morneau had an OPS of .902 vs. RHPs in 2012. He is under contract for 2013 for $14m and will cost at least one or two prospects to acquire.

Neither player can hit lefties. Even if MIN eats several million, you're still paying $6-8 million and prospects for a fairly marginal improvement.

I'd rather use those resources to acquire a proven SP like Joe Saunders.

Good post. The big difference is that, prior to 2011, Morneau never had a big problem hitting lefities. So, if you believe he can revert to form vs. LHP, he has a lot of upside, as he is already doing a lot of damage vs. RHP. Betemit, on the other hand, has never hit LHP well, and there is zero reason to think he will do so in the future. Personally, I would not want to pay all that extra money to find out if Morneau will regain his ability to hit LHP.

[OrioleMagic79]

I'm not even quite sure where to begin here. If you don't like WAR, then lets use some other metrics. There have been an even 100 corner infielders who've played at least 200 games since 2007. Among those 100 Reynolds is:

9th in home runs

12th in runs scored

27th in doubles

14th in RBI

13th in walks

31st in OPS

By almost any reasonable metric he's an above-average offensive player.

I guess I'll go ahead and ask - If you don't like WAR, then what framework do you use to judge and compare players?

I have no idea what you're talking about. Literally no idea. You could have at least cut-and-pasted a Murray Chass anti-WAR screed if that was your point.

Some of those would be decent options, some not as much. There's varying levels of risk and cost associated with each. But the overall cost/benefit analysis would probably look pretty favorably on Reynolds as a full-time first baseman. He's far cheaper than LaRoche, who's coming off a massive spike in a age 30+ walk year. He's much less risky than a fading Youkilis. He'll require a much shorter and lower-value deal than Swisher for not much less production. Morneau has significant injury and cost risks. KC wants several high-end prospects for Butler. Morse is 31 and has had one good, full season in his MLB career.

At the right cost Reynolds is a pretty good option. Unfortunately his contract demands were probably higher than his track record warranted.

Reynolds was a better hitter last year, and probably the year before. They're comparable on defense at first. So, no, I don' think that's correct.

I don't care what Reynolds did in 2007...he isn't the player he used to be and has been in a pretty steep decline ever since...

Not to mention Reynolds is not a "corner infielder" anymore, he is a 1B at this point. He may back up at 3B once in a blue moon (although more likely Betemit will do that to not create a hole at 1B and/or DH when spelling Manny), but we are talking about his value as a starter at 1B. He won't even DH because Davis and Betemit will do that.

So the numbers aren't as good when compared just at 1B...not to mention the steady decline thing...

There are risks at all positions no matter who you sign, but saying LaRoche is a risk because he had a really good year in his 30's (while a concern as it is a bit "out of nowhere" and hard to duplicate) without talking about Reynolds's declining trends is a bit silly.

Everyone on here who is afraid of the "risks" of other options, while singing from the rooftops about MR being the best option, what exactly is "safe" about MR? Everyone acts like he is going to somehow channel 2009 citing it as his upside...well, how about the fact that he has been horrible in comparison in the 3 seasons since? Isn't THAT a concern?

The only reasons anyone likes him is because they remember his hot streak that happened to be at the right time. He was AWFUL for the first 4 months of the season. Many posters on here were calling for him to be released because "we can't even trade him because he has no value," etc.

Taking a look at the average output over the last 3 years from him and this is what you get:

145 G, 30 HR, 80 RBI, 189 K's, 76 Runs, 23 doubles, .213 BA, .775 OPS, 13 GIDP, 77 BB, .326 OBP, 4 Sac Flies, .450 SLG

compare that with how he played in 2012:

135 G, 23 HR, 69 RBI, 159 K's, 65 Runs, 26 doubles, .221 BA, .763 OPS, 19 GIDP, 73 BB, .335 OBP, 2 Sac Flies, .429 SLG

That's almost a decline in every category...and even if he played in the same amount of games, he wouldn't have reached the average. This is with including 2012 in the 3 year average. If I didn't include that and compared the average from 2009-11 with 2012, the decline would be MUCH larger...

Guys, the love affair with MR needs to stop. We all need to remember what the majority of the season was like for him and not just the last month and a half or so...because even last year shows that he's more likely to be the player he was in the first 2/3 of the season than the last 1/3...

[CA-ORIOLE]

First, 1.9 is not between 2 and 3. But more importantly, oWAR includes a positional adjustment so his oWAR would be less if he played first base. This is the reason that WAR isn't equal to oWAR plus dWAR.

Exactly. dWAR also has a postional adjustment, so it's very possible for a guy to have a negative dWAR and be an above average fielder (for his position).

[Dark Helmet]

They signed Guthrie and another pitcher. They've been dishing out money which is uncanny for them.

They re-signed Guthrie and traded for Ervin Santana.

[weams]

For me at 1b:

Reynolds Plan A

Morneau Plan B

Morse Plan C

Why is Butler in a plan for 1b discussion? All I have read is he is awful defensively there and isn't more than a DH.

Well, a few here thought Dunn should be our first baseman. Butler is not THAT bad.

[soxhotcorner14]

I don't care what Reynolds did in 2007...he isn't the player he used to be and has been in a pretty steep decline ever since...

Not to mention Reynolds is not a "corner infielder" anymore, he is a 1B at this point. He may back up at 3B once in a blue moon (although more likely Betemit will do that to not create a hole at 1B and/or DH when spelling Manny), but we are talking about his value as a starter at 1B. He won't even DH because Davis and Betemit will do that.

So the numbers aren't as good when compared just at 1B...not to mention the steady decline thing...

There are risks at all positions no matter who you sign, but saying LaRoche is a risk because he had a really good year in his 30's (while a concern as it is a bit "out of nowhere" and hard to duplicate) without talking about Reynolds's declining trends is a bit silly.

Everyone on here who is afraid of the "risks" of other options, while singing from the rooftops about MR being the best option, what exactly is "safe" about MR? Everyone acts like he is going to somehow channel 2009 citing it as his upside...well, how about the fact that he has been horrible in comparison in the 3 seasons since? Isn't THAT a concern?

The only reasons anyone likes him is because they remember his hot streak that happened to be at the right time. He was AWFUL for the first 4 months of the season. Many posters on here were calling for him to be released because "we can't even trade him because he has no value," etc.

Taking a look at the average output over the last 3 years from him and this is what you get:

145 G, 30 HR, 80 RBI, 189 K's, 76 Runs, 23 doubles, .213 BA, .775 OPS, 13 GIDP, 77 BB, .326 OBP, 4 Sac Flies, .450 SLG

compare that with how he played in 2012:

135 G, 23 HR, 69 RBI, 159 K's, 65 Runs, 26 doubles, .221 BA, .763 OPS, 19 GIDP, 73 BB, .335 OBP, 2 Sac Flies, .429 SLG

That's almost a decline in every category...and even if he played in the same amount of games, he wouldn't have reached the average. This is with including 2012 in the 3 year average. If I didn't include that and compared the average from 2009-11 with 2012, the decline would be MUCH larger...

Guys, the love affair with MR needs to stop. We all need to remember what the majority of the season was like for him and not just the last month and a half or so...because even last year shows that he's more likely to be the player he was in the first 2/3 of the season than the last 1/3...

I'm not sure where the love affair with MR is coming from either. Just because we can make cute pictures with him spitting seeds? Or the 10-12 games out of a year he was hot? I don't get it.

I will say he played one helluva 1B last year when he moved from 3rd. He's a good dude, great character, can hit bombs and strikes out. He's solid, but unfortunately he's playing a position out of 3 that is open that can address a MOO bat. If the O's didn't address it in LF, that leaves 1B and DH open for that bat.

[weams]

"If a team?s starting center field gets injured and they have to replace that player with a Triple-A player, how much value would that team lose? That?s the conceptual basis of replacement level; it?s the level of talent that?s freely available on the free agent market at any time."

I think compensated at league minimum as well.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I don't care what Reynolds did in 2007...he isn't the player he used to be and has been in a pretty steep decline ever since...

Not to mention Reynolds is not a "corner infielder" anymore, he is a 1B at this point. He may back up at 3B once in a blue moon (although more likely Betemit will do that to not create a hole at 1B and/or DH when spelling Manny), but we are talking about his value as a starter at 1B. He won't even DH because Davis and Betemit will do that.

So the numbers aren't as good when compared just at 1B...not to mention the steady decline thing...

There are risks at all positions no matter who you sign, but saying LaRoche is a risk because he had a really good year in his 30's (while a concern as it is a bit "out of nowhere" and hard to duplicate) without talking about Reynolds's declining trends is a bit silly.

Everyone on here who is afraid of the "risks" of other options, while singing from the rooftops about MR being the best option, what exactly is "safe" about MR? Everyone acts like he is going to somehow channel 2009 citing it as his upside...well, how about the fact that he has been horrible in comparison in the 3 seasons since? Isn't THAT a concern?

The only reasons anyone likes him is because they remember his hot streak that happened to be at the right time. He was AWFUL for the first 4 months of the season. Many posters on here were calling for him to be released because "we can't even trade him because he has no value," etc.

Taking a look at the average output over the last 3 years from him and this is what you get:

145 G, 30 HR, 80 RBI, 189 K's, 76 Runs, 23 doubles, .213 BA, .775 OPS, 13 GIDP, 77 BB, .326 OBP, 4 Sac Flies, .450 SLG

compare that with how he played in 2012:

135 G, 23 HR, 69 RBI, 159 K's, 65 Runs, 26 doubles, .221 BA, .763 OPS, 19 GIDP, 73 BB, .335 OBP, 2 Sac Flies, .429 SLG

That's almost a decline in every category...and even if he played in the same amount of games, he wouldn't have reached the average. This is with including 2012 in the 3 year average. If I didn't include that and compared the average from 2009-11 with 2012, the decline would be MUCH larger...

Guys, the love affair with MR needs to stop. We all need to remember what the majority of the season was like for him and not just the last month and a half or so...because even last year shows that he's more likely to be the player he was in the first 2/3 of the season than the last 1/3...

Well, I basically agree with your assessment of MR. I'm having a little bit of a hard time separating your disdain for WAR though. You could easily use WAR to make the exact same argument you're making here. The bottom line is MR is most likely going to provide below average offensive production for a first baseman. So the case really boils down to your belief that Reynolds has developed into a great defesnice first baseman that will move him into the average to above average range, I don't really buy it. If you accept the fact that we're dealing with limited resources, I completely understand DD's line of thinking in non-tendering him.

[OrioleMagic79]

The place where you set the bar is largely irrelevant. You could make it "wins below Babe Ruth" and the relative values of each player would remain the same, they'd just all be scaled to a different baseline. Instead of Mark Reynolds being 1 WAR he'd be -10 WBBR, and instead of Mike Trout being 10 WAR he'd be -1 WBBR.

But the baseline is set at a replacement player because that's an appropriate measure of a major leaguer's value. You accumulate value in the majors by being better than free talent.

I agree with what you are saying, but the only WAR stat being used is MR's...and to me, if MR is only worth 2 more wins than a typical AAA first baseman, then I don't think that's very impressive at all. It is actually concerning...

That said, this all only matters if you believe WAR to be a relevant statistic, because we are looking at a contrived number from a season that has already happened and saying that we are going to get the same number of WAR out of him next season. That is asinine in my opinion, because WAR relies on too many random factors...Did Reynolds get more mistake pitches thrown down the middle than someone else at his position? Did Reynolds have the Sun in his eyes on two of his errors at third making his WAR go down and looking worse than a player who is actually worse at 3B than he is? Did the other players at his position get placed into a "win me the game" situation more often than he did? Maybe they had four hits in 5 game winning/losing situations, weighting those hits more than Mark who was in that situation one time and didn't get a hit? Well, the other guy didn't get a hit in his first chance either, but he had 4 other chances and Mark didn't...

The WAR stat goes against the one main standard of proof that must exist in all comparisons/research...it has too many variables at once, making it impossible to compare one player with another...it's the quint-essential "on paper" stat...and as Orioles fans, we should all be well aware from last season about what "on paper" projections are worth...

How many wins were the Orioles expected to have in 2012 "on paper"? It sure as hell wasn't 93...

And how many of you all were pissed off when the media and fans from other teams acted like our team was "lucky" and any day now will fall out of playoff contention and become "who they really are"? How many of you all made the argument that we were in fact a good team and weren't just "lucky"?

Well, using a stat like WAR means that MR will be 2 wins better than someone with a 0 WAR rating...but if that player with a 0 WAR rating goes out and helps his team win 6 more games than they would have otherwise this season, are you going to still tell me that MR was the better choice?

Like I said, I think it is a worthless stat, because no matter how you crunch the numbers, getting a tally in the left column cannot be explained on a piece of paper before the game starts...too much can happen that is random and can (and will) affect the outcome...

[Frobby]

Everyone on here who is afraid of the "risks" of other options, while singing from the rooftops about MR being the best option, what exactly is "safe" about MR? Everyone acts like he is going to somehow channel 2009 citing it as his upside...well, how about the fact that he has been horrible in comparison in the 3 seasons since? Isn't THAT a concern?

The only reasons anyone likes him is because they remember his hot streak that happened to be at the right time. He was AWFUL for the first 4 months of the season. Many posters on here were calling for him to be released because "we can't even trade him because he has no value," etc.

Taking a look at the average output over the last 3 years from him and this is what you get:

145 G, 30 HR, 80 RBI, 189 K's, 76 Runs, 23 doubles, .213 BA, .775 OPS, 13 GIDP, 77 BB, .326 OBP, 4 Sac Flies, .450 SLG

compare that with how he played in 2012:

135 G, 23 HR, 69 RBI, 159 K's, 65 Runs, 26 doubles, .221 BA, .763 OPS, 19 GIDP, 73 BB, .335 OBP, 2 Sac Flies, .429 SLG

That's almost a decline in every category...and even if he played in the same amount of games, he wouldn't have reached the average. This is with including 2012 in the 3 year average. If I didn't include that and compared the average from 2009-11 with 2012, the decline would be MUCH larger...

Guys, the love affair with MR needs to stop. We all need to remember what the majority of the season was like for him and not just the last month and a half or so...because even last year shows that he's more likely to be the player he was in the first 2/3 of the season than the last 1/3...

Personally, I don't have a love affair with Mark Reynolds, though I'd be happy to have him back at the right price. But I have to take issue with a few things you say here. First, it is not correct that Reynolds was awful for all of the first 4 months of the season and then had one hot streak. Reynolds had a very nice stretch from May 4 through June 14 where he hit .342/.462/.658. In the middle of that stretch, he had a stint on the 15-day DL, and I would argue that but for that injury, he might have had another 60 or so plate appearances during which he would have been torrid. Also, Reynolds played hurt the final 15 or so games of the season -- you may remember he had his shoulder and arm wrapped every night so he could stay in the lineup. Bottom line, for me there are a lot of reasons to expect a better season from Reynolds in 2013 than he had in 2012. Obviously, there is a risk he won't bounce back, and his salary has to reflect that risk.

I don't think much of your trend analysis. All it really says to me is that 2012 was a down year for Reynolds -- we knew that already.

Bill James projects Reynolds for a .799 OPS with 32 HR, 85 RBI next year. For me, that's a pretty good guess, recognizing that, as with any player, he could be significantly better or worse than that projection.

[CA-ORIOLE]

That said, this all only matters if you believe WAR to be a relevant statistic, because we are looking at a contrived number from a season that has already happened and saying that we are going to get the same number of WAR out of him next season. That is asinine in my opinion, because WAR relies on too many random factors...Did Reynolds get more mistake pitches thrown down the middle than someone else at his position? Did Reynolds have the Sun in his eyes on two of his errors at third making his WAR go down and looking worse than a player who is actually worse at 3B than he is? Did the other players at his position get placed into a "win me the game" situation more often than he did? Maybe they had four hits in 5 game winning/losing situations, weighting those hits more than Mark who was in that situation one time and didn't get a hit? Well, the other guy didn't get a hit in his first chance either, but he had 4 other chances and Mark didn't.....

This is an argument against statistics (a weak one at that) than it is an argument against WAR.

[Frobby]

I agree with what you are saying, but the only WAR stat being used is MR's...and to me, if MR is only worth 2 more wins than a typical AAA first baseman, then I don't think that's very impressive at all. It is actually concerning...

First of all, WAR is not supposed to measure the difference between the major league player and a "typical AAA" player. The baseline isn't a typical AAA player, it is a player who is basically at the borderline between AAA and the majors. Think Steve Pearce. He is better than the typical AAA 1B (.894 career MiL OPS), has been up to the majors several times, but isn't quite good enough to stick. He's been worth -0.2 WAR in his career, so almost exactly "replacement level."

Second, the way WAR is calibrated, an average major league starting position player is worth about 2 WAR per season. So, to say Reynolds should be a 2 WAR player as a 1B is to say he'll be an average major league starting 1B.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

I'm not sure where the love affair with MR is coming from either. Just because we can make cute pictures with him spitting seeds? Or the 10-12 games out of a year he was hot? I don't get it.

I will say he played one helluva 1B last year when he moved from 3rd. He's a good dude, great character, can hit bombs and strikes out. He's solid, but unfortunately he's playing a position out of 3 that is open that can address a MOO bat. If the O's didn't address it in LF, that leaves 1B and DH open for that bat.

I'm insulted. It's cute pics of him eating seeds. GIF's of him throwing them. We don't make cute pictures of him spitting. That's gross.

[soxhotcorner14]

I'm insulted. It's cute pics of him eating seeds. GIF's of him throwing them. We don't make cute pictures of him spitting. That's gross.

LMAO! :laughlol::laughlol:

[CA-ORIOLE]

First of all, WAR is not supposed to measure the difference between the major league player and a "typical AAA" player. The baseline isn't a typical AAA player, it is a player who is basically at the borderline between AAA and the majors. Think Steve Pearce. He is better than the typical AAA 1B (.894 career MiL OPS), has been up to the majors several times, but isn't quite good enough to stick. He's been worth -0.2 WAR in his career, so almost exactly "replacement level."

Second, the way WAR is calibrated, an average major league starting position player is worth about 2 WAR per season. So, to say Reynolds should be a 2 WAR player as a 1B is to say he'll be an average major league starting 1B.

Yeah, and being "average" is no insult. Don't necessarily agree that Reynolds would be average at first base going forward, but it's certainly in the range of possibilities.