Josh Hamilton market update - 3 years $60-75 million

[TonySoprano]

Try offering him a 3-year contract at the highest annual value in history with a 4th year that kicks in with some sort of serious performance milestones. Maybe in a pinch do the 4th year guaranteed in hopes he can make 3 of those years worth it and you eat the fourth. The highest annual salary in history gives him the ego win from a PR standpoint since he doesn't get the 6-7. Also shows the O's are ready to act like they're a serious franchise. Make the Rangers beat that offer.

The Rangers wouldn't have to beat the offer because they don't have a state income tax. I think this is an academic exercise anyway. He's giving Texas a chance to top any offer which tells me where his strong preference is.

So ideally 3/$90, maybe as much as 4/$110?

Pete Angelos signs that deal. That is, until you add the M as in millions after those numbers No way Pete signs off on $30M+/year.

[section18]

The Orioles need to step up and sign Hamilton now that his price and years have apparently dropped. We still can't rule out our proximity to his family in Raleigh, N.C. and the former Rangers on the Orioles who can be part of his support team. We can afford him for 3 or 4 years and an 80 - 85 mill package may be enough to sign him. The Rangers original offer was $13.75 mill per yr. over 3 years from what I have read. How much have they improved their original offer? I believe I read somewhere they were not going to improve the amount and maybe only increase the years. If the Rangers obtain Upton from Arizona the possibility of his return to Texas lessens. Now that another friend of his has left (Michael Young) I doubt he is as enthused about returning to Texas. The only other player I've ever heard speak about him to the media is Ian Kinsler and he is rumored on the trade block as well. Is there anyone that wouldn't like to trade for Kinsler to be our 2B? The BROB matter still hangs over the team with nothing definite about his return other than he is working out every day in Florida. I mentioned on another post a week or so ago that a good ST for BROB could cause a team like the Marlins to have an interest in obtaining him if we eat part of his salary.

[DrungoHazewood]

And I also think the O's are so close and he is a top flight talent. We could get to the series next year if we took some real risks, not scrap heap, reclamation project signings.

So to your question...No way we offer a 6-7 year deal. Not even 5.

Try offering him a 3-year contract at the highest annual value in history with a 4th year that kicks in with some sort of serious performance milestones. Maybe in a pinch do the 4th year guaranteed in hopes he can make 3 of those years worth it and you eat the fourth. The highest annual salary in history gives him the ego win from a PR standpoint since he doesn't get the 6-7. Also shows the O's are ready to act like they're a serious franchise. Make the Rangers beat that offer.

The highest annual value in history would be something like $34M or $35M a year. ARod has had years where he made $33M. So you're looking at something like 3/105, plus a 4th year at $30M+, makes for the possibility of 4/140ish. That's paying for 21 or 28 wins, or thereabout. That's an MVP level each year, and a four-year total that's about half of a HOF career.

If that's an explicit overpay to win the bidding, I guess that's fine, if somewhat unrealistic. If that's based on his real world valuation, it's very, very high. Through what is almost always a player's peak years (26-31) he's been worth about 23 wins over six years, and has had just one 7+ win season.

I don't think I'd give a guy a 100% bonus just to get him to sign with the Orioles. He's a 3.5 or 4-win player over his peak years, and you're suggesting the O's offer him a 7-win contract for his mid-30s. That's more than double his expected real life value, with no risk mitigation built in for his personal issues.

[Fla_O'sfan]

It never ceases to amaze how some O's fans continue to dream big. There is absolutely zero chance of this team signing Hamilton or any other high priced FA. Reynolds was let go to save $$. If (and it's a big IF) there is any kind of replacement, it will come from the bargain bin or in a trade for a player who makes less than the one(s) traded away.

[BrunoCherrytown]

The highest annual value in history would be something like $34M or $35M a year. ARod has had years where he made $33M. So you're looking at something like 3/105, plus a 4th year at $30M+, makes for the possibility of 4/140ish. That's paying for 21 or 28 wins, or thereabout. That's an MVP level each year, and a four-year total that's about half of a HOF career.

If that's an explicit overpay to win the bidding, I guess that's fine, if somewhat unrealistic. If that's based on his real world valuation, it's very, very high. Through what is almost always a player's peak years (26-31) he's been worth about 23 wins over six years, and has had just one 7+ win season.

I don't think I'd give a guy a 100% bonus just to get him to sign with the Orioles. He's a 3.5 or 4-win player over his peak years, and you're suggesting the O's offer him a 7-win contract for his mid-30s. That's more than double his expected real life value, with no risk mitigation built in for his personal issues.

I absolutely agree its an overpay. I also thought, because I was too lazy to look it up, that the biggest annual contract was around $30 per with ARod. But even knowing that, I'd still do it because we can afford it - our owner is just too cheap to authorize it. And this is where I stop caring about cost-based wins and lean towards real wins. We are really close to being a World Series contender -I'm of the mind that, at this point, dumpster diving is riskier than signing a legit talent.

[DrungoHazewood]

I absolutely agree its an overpay. I also thought, because I was too lazy to look it up, that the biggest annual contract was around $30 per with ARod. But even knowing that, I'd still do it because we can afford it - our owner is just too cheap to authorize it. And this is where I stop caring about cost-based wins and lean towards real wins. We are really close to being a World Series contender -I'm of the mind that, at this point, dumpster diving is riskier than signing a legit talent.

My problem with this kind of contract for Hamilton is that he's going to be a 3-win player, but you now have 7 wins worth of free agent dollars committed to him. If the Orioles can afford $30 or $40M a year in more payroll I could think of a lot of things I'd rather do with than money than offer Josh Hamilton twice what he's been historically worth through his decline.

[CSB Jack]

I absolutely agree its an overpay. I also thought, because I was too lazy to look it up, that the biggest annual contract was around $30 per with ARod. But even knowing that, I'd still do it because we can afford it - our owner is just too cheap to authorize it. And this is where I stop caring about cost-based wins and lean towards real wins. We are really close to being a World Series contender -I'm of the mind that, at this point, dumpster diving is riskier than signing a legit talent.

But that's no way to run a real business. There is a value to real wins, absolutely, and WAR is just a guideline to value that should not be taken too far in calculations. But that doesn't mean that just because the Orioles CAN afford to overpay on one player that they SHOULD do so, or should do it by that much. If I was going to suggest they do that it would be with homegrown talent, not a free agent on the wrong side of 32.

Hamilton would make the Orioles' lineup better, no question. He's just not a $20M+/year player in my book. Right player, player right price. For me the price isn't right. Now, if I could get him for 4/60 I'd be very much in favor of that, but that's not the level we are talking about.

[BrunoCherrytown]

But that's no way to run a real business. There is a value to real wins, absolutely, and WAR is just a guideline to value that should not be taken too far in calculations. But that doesn't mean that just because the Orioles CAN afford to overpay on one player that they SHOULD do so, or should do it by that much. If I was going to suggest they do that it would be with homegrown talent, not a free agent on the wrong side of 32.

Hamilton would make the Orioles' lineup better, no question. He's just not a $20M+/year player in my book. Right player, player right price. For me the price isn't right. Now, if I could get him for 4/60 I'd be very much in favor of that, but that's not the level we are talking about.

I agree wholeheartedly that what i've proposed is not a way to run a real business. But in many ways owning a sports team isn't a real business. I'm a business owner, I don't lean on other businesses in my industry to prop up the value of my business through things like rev sharing, national TV deals, etc. I didn't have, say, a trade organization give me some lump sum and heavily one-sided controlling interest in my market where I just pocket the profits in return for letting a competitor enter it. I can't suck at my business for 14 years, understaff, and underinvest in my business, yet come out profitable at the end of the day. My business' value wouldn't increase many fold due to actions like this. Angelos has done all of these things.

If the O's were a real business they'd have been out of business a long time ago - we all know this. But owning a sports team means you are given some serious advantages such as loyal fan bases, pooled revenue streams etc. which make it almost impossible to lose money nowadays as long as the Pirates don't go on a Dodgers like spree.

I love our homegrown talent as much as the next guy, but we have nobody as good as Hamilton as a hitter in the lineup and he's an adequate OF - so if he could be had on an expensive, admittedly overvalued 3-4 year deal, I say do it.

But with my point i'm not operating under the premise of the O's having a $85-$100 million payroll. I think this is a pure Angelos con. If I'm operating under that premise what i've proposed is technically impossible. So really what i've proposed is la-la land stuff anyways. But most of what we do on here are hypothetical brain exercises focusing on our favorite MLB team.

We have a weak free agent class in the exact year we could take those next steps that get us to the World Series. Our trade options seem to be dwindling for impact talent given what we will need to surrender and what we are willing to surrender. Signing Hamilton is a desperate times call for desperate measures thing.

Even as I was proposing that 3-4 year ridiculously expensive contract I was thinking - this is really crazy and irrational. But that's what being a sports fan is about.

[TradeAngelos]

So wish I had the ability to rep you Bruno.

[Mayor McCheese]

The Orioles signing McLouth should have put an end to the Hamilton discussions.

This time next year we will be worrying about whos in LF again... ...it is what it is.

[Roll Tide]

So wish I had the ability to rep you Bruno.

Sign up for the Plus

[SrMeowMeow]

I think Hamilton may end up being one of the few big deals signed this offseason to produce surplus value. But I think McLouth's will be better in that respect. I'd take Hamilton but I'm not unhappy with our current solution.

Now, 2B...that's another story. And we need more pitching. And I miss Mark Reynolds and Koji.

[RevOlution]

So wish I had the ability to rep you Bruno.

Got him for you.

Agree with JohnnyK...sign up for the plus membership.

[Mizerooskie]

My problem with this kind of contract for Hamilton is that he's going to be a 3-win player, but you now have 7 wins worth of free agent dollars committed to him. If the Orioles can afford $30 or $40M a year in more payroll I could think of a lot of things I'd rather do with than money than offer Josh Hamilton twice what he's been historically worth through his decline.

The problem with this line of thinking is the assumption that you could use the $30M-$40M on multiple other available assets, and that those assets would fit how the team is constructed. Sure, if there was a perfectly priced $15M 1B and $15M DH, that logic would make sense. But there aren't, so it doesn't. Also, you're much more likely to get approval to spend that kind of money on a big name, rather than several smaller names.

[EddieO'sSC]

I agree wholeheartedly that what i've proposed is not a way to run a real business. But in many ways owning a sports team isn't a real business. I'm a business owner, I don't lean on other businesses in my industry to prop up the value of my business through things like rev sharing, national TV deals, etc. I didn't have, say, a trade organization give me some lump sum and heavily one-sided controlling interest in my market where I just pocket the profits in return for letting a competitor enter it. I can't suck at my business for 14 years, understaff, and underinvest in my business, yet come out profitable at the end of the day. My business' value wouldn't increase many fold due to actions like this. Angelos has done all of these things.

If the O's were a real business they'd have been out of business a long time ago - we all know this. But owning a sports team means you are given some serious advantages such as loyal fan bases, pooled revenue streams etc. which make it almost impossible to lose money nowadays as long as the Pirates don't go on a Dodgers like spree.

I love our homegrown talent as much as the next guy, but we have nobody as good as Hamilton as a hitter in the lineup and he's an adequate OF - so if he could be had on an expensive, admittedly overvalued 3-4 year deal, I say do it.

But with my point i'm not operating under the premise of the O's having a $85-$100 million payroll. I think this is a pure Angelos con. If I'm operating under that premise what i've proposed is technically impossible. So really what i've proposed is la-la land stuff anyways. But most of what we do on here are hypothetical brain exercises focusing on our favorite MLB team.

We have a weak free agent class in the exact year we could take those next steps that get us to the World Series. Our trade options seem to be dwindling for impact talent given what we will need to surrender and what we are willing to surrender. Signing Hamilton is a desperate times call for desperate measures thing.

Even as I was proposing that 3-4 year ridiculously expensive contract I was thinking - this is really crazy and irrational. But that's what being a sports fan is about.

This is not to bash Peter Angelos. I personally don?t know the man. I will say that I believe that Mr. Angelos has a setup were he knows exactly what he can spend and still make a profit from MASN subscription fees, revenue sharing, attendance revenue etc. Any additional spending becomes a risk in his setup. If he stays the course, he knows he is guaranteed profit. Taking on additional payroll is seen as risk.

Some here put all of their trust is Buck and D.D. I can?t say I feel the same. There is still a lot of off season to be played out; so I?ll be patient and see how it turns out.