Royals getting Shields and Wade Davis for Wil Myers and other prospects

[SrMeowMeow]

The point is, building a baseball team is too difficult to be discussed in generalities. One player away. Middle of the order bat. The whole concept of labeling pitchers by rotation slots. Trading unproven for proven talent. It's all about fine shadings of risk, reward, and probability. That's why projections and advanced stats are so incredibly valuable, because otherwise you're trading "a talented but unproven young hitter and two live arms for an ace and a good bullpen arm." Or, if you use slightly different words, "a phenomenal young talent and the cream of Kansas City's young pitching for a workhorse starter and another arm." You must try to assign precise values or probabilities at the time of the trade or admit that you're not trying to understand reality. And it's impossible to eyeball these things when there exist front offices that work harder.

[eb45]

I didn't read this whole thread but I don't really get your argument. How is Shields not a solid pick for a #1 starter? He was ninth in the AL in WAR last year and twelfth in ERA (among qualified starters). And this was his "non-ace year where everything didn't go right for him". In 2011 he was eighth in WAR and third in ERA. He's a very good pitcher who is a very good candidate to be an ace on many teams. Ace doesn't mean "best pitcher in baseball". And to short-circuit a whole semantic wrangle, let me just say that calling James Shields a "#3 or #4 starter" is crazytime. And also, how would you describe an average starter if not as a #3/#4 guy? If that's not average...are average starters #5 guys? I'm not following.

Because (Fangraphs') pitcher WAR is silly? Because raw ERA is silly? Come on. This is basic.

Adjusting for park and league and what have you, Shields' 108 ERA+ was 15th in the AL among 36 qualified starters, and his rWAR of 2.2 was 34th (around where people with much fewer IP like Andy Pettitte and Jose Quintana were). His RA9 was 146th of 325 AL pitchers (BR won't let me separate out non-qualifiers in Value stats). BR also has him at 0.4 WAA. His SIERA was great but if you don't think a fly ball pitcher who is prone to giving up HRs wouldn't do so well outside of Tropicana then that is crazytime.

James Shields is a good pitcher, I'm not debating that. But I don't see how anyone could think he's the one guy you want to build a rotation around so badly that you'll give up Wil Myers.

e: yeah I've already admitted that calling him a #3/4 was a bit harsh, but I still am pretty sure he's not a #1 on a playoff team, which is what KC paid for, and there's a lot of playoff teams where he wouldn't be a #2.

[weams]

Because (Fangraphs') pitcher WAR is silly? Because raw ERA is silly? Come on. This is basic.

Adjusting for park and league and what have you, Shields' 108 ERA+ was 15th in the AL among 36 qualified starters, and his rWAR of 2.2 was 34th (around where people with much fewer IP like Andy Pettitte and Jose Quintana were). His RA9 was 146th of 325 AL pitchers (BR won't let me separate out non-qualifiers in Value stats). BR also has him at 0.4 WAA. His SIERA was great but if you don't think a fly ball pitcher who is prone to giving up HRs wouldn't do so well outside of Tropicana then that is crazytime.

James Shields is a good pitcher, I'm not debating that. But I don't see how anyone could think he's the one guy you want to build a rotation around so badly that you'll give up Wil Myers.

e: yeah I've already admitted that calling him a #3/4 was a bit harsh, but I still am pretty sure he's not a #1 on a playoff team, which is what KC paid for, and there's a lot of playoff teams where he wouldn't be a #2.

Where would he slot for Washington?

[Can_of_corn]

Does this mean Francoeur is going to have a starting job in MLB next season?

Not sure having Shields is enough to make up for having to give Frenchy 500+ at bats.

[Dark Helmet]

•One GM told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that "Myers is no slam dunk" and added that this is "far from a lopsided deal." Rosenthal suggests teams like the Royals can too often get fixated on their prospects and pass on opportunities to compete.

•The Royals tried to trade Myers for Shields straight up, but the Rays said no, Yahoo's Jeff Passan writes (Twitter links). The Royals also tried trading Myers to Oakland for Brett Anderson only to be turned down, Passan writes

Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#Jw7SRwor3CSWxwFK.99

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The Royals offered the games top prospect for a pitcher that has thrown 230 innings combined the last 3 years? Seems they were just itching to give Myers away.

[Can_of_corn]

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The Royals offered the games top prospect for a pitcher that has thrown 230 innings combined the last 3 years? Seems they were just itching to give Myers away.

Who had Myers #1 overall?

[eb45]

Where would he slot for Washington?

4/5, depending on how much you like Detwiler.

[Enjoy Terror]

I might be alone on this. Although I initially thought the trade was heavily skewed in Tampa's favor, I don't think the Royals are that crazy for doing it. I actually like their rotation now; Shields is a decent #1, Guthrie and Santana give up the long ball a lot but are a good #2 and #3, with Chen as the vet and Davis as the wild card getting a shot. For all we know, Davis could pull a Hammel and be brilliant as a longman-converted-starter. There's a lot wrong with the Royals, but nothing as glaring as their rotation, and Moore addressed that immediately by giving up their best prospect. I guess you could make arguments as to whether Myers could have fetched more? It's hard to say; I think Shields was a good piece to ask for, Price would've had Friedman laughing.

In the end, it really depends on how you feel about prospects. Myers hit similarly in the PCL as Adam Jones did at the same age. He could be a stud; he could also be Kyle Blanks. Or Justin Smoak. or any other highly touted guy that never put it together in the bigs. I think time is going to determine the winner of this trade, and it's too early to declare TB the winner.

[Bulgaria]

Actually, it's a pretty big risk for the Rays. Myers isn't guaranteed to be productive next season, so all they've essentially done is send their #2 starting pitcher and a dominant reliever for possibly no immediate help, in a very competitive AL East. And their hitting, which wasn't very good last season, lost two of their best hitters in Keppinger and Upton, and merely added an enigmatic SS.

The Rays have arguably taken two steps back in trying to make the playoffs for next season. It's good for the future, but you know what they say, if you keep looking towards the future, the present will never arrive. The Royals still may not contend for a playoff spot, but at least they tried. If they dont try now, it may be too late for their current crop of young hitters. Who knows how long it would have taken for the team to develop young pitchers. They can't keep on waiting.

[scOtt]

Actually, it's a pretty big risk for the Rays. Myers isn't guaranteed to be productive next season, so all they've essentially done is send their #2 starting pitcher and a dominant reliever for possibly no immediate help, in a very competitive AL East. And their hitting, which wasn't very good last season, lost two of their best hitters in Keppinger and Upton, and merely added an enigmatic SS.

The Rays have arguably taken two steps back in trying to make the playoffs for next season. It's good for the future, but you know what they say, if you keep looking towards the future, the present will never arrive. The Royals still may not contend for a playoff spot, but at least they tried. If they dont try now, it may be too late for their current crop of young hitters. Who knows how long it would have taken for the team to develop young pitchers. They can't keep on waiting.

Meh. The Rays did what they are SO adept at doing. They traded Shields away at the HEIGHT of his value. And before his price got too pricey for them.

Adding Wade Davis in is their new wrinkle. That's a LOT to give up. They got back a lot, but time will tell. This is a risk for the Rays.

KC side I think it's a no-brainer.

[Can_of_corn]

Actually, it's a pretty big risk for the Rays. Myers isn't guaranteed to be productive next season, so all they've essentially done is send their #2 starting pitcher and a dominant reliever for possibly no immediate help, in a very competitive AL East. And their hitting, which wasn't very good last season, lost two of their best hitters in Keppinger and Upton, and merely added an enigmatic SS.

The Rays have arguably taken two steps back in trying to make the playoffs for next season. It's good for the future, but you know what they say, if you keep looking towards the future, the present will never arrive. The Royals still may not contend for a playoff spot, but at least they tried. If they dont try now, it may be too late for their current crop of young hitters. Who knows how long it would have taken for the team to develop young pitchers. They can't keep on waiting.

They also freed up a significant chunk of payroll. Time will tell if they make use of it.

[Whammer]

Another bump.

You just never know how these trades will work out.

[Tryptamine]

There's no question that at this point it is far less lopsided than it initially was viewed to be, but even with Wil Myers missing the majority of 2014 the Rays still had Odorizzi pitch really well to the tune a 3.75FIP and 3.90xFIP.

[Can_of_corn]

Another bump.

You just never know how these trades will work out.

It was a bad trade for the Royals that worked out really well.

Doesn't change the mechanics of the deal, just in this one particular instance the #5 starter throw in turned into the best relief pitcher in the game for a season.

[backwardsk]

It was a bad trade for the Royals that worked out really well.

Doesn't change the mechanics of the deal, just in this one particular instance the #5 starter throw in turned into the best relief pitcher in the game for a season.

Should have traded Shields mid-season because they were too far back in the standings, right?

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