Is Bundy this special?

[andrewrickli]

...or is it OH's obsession and love with its prospects?

I know that this has been discussed in previous threads, but I think that it deserved it's own, seeing as how our "Bundy for Upton" thread has been derailed with trade talk surrounding the Orioles trying to acquire Mike Olt from the Rangers.

Here is what I posted yesterday about the Bundy for Upton debate, and the only negative stat that I can think of is his home and away OPS splits, and my argument to that is this. Chase field is a goog place to hit in, or so I hear. OPACY is a GREAT place to hit in, and one that Upton has never hit in before.

My big question to the board revolves around Bundy's value. The majority says "Bundy for six years is better than 3 years (hopefully more if we got him-i would try and get an extension in place) of Upton.

My argument is as follows. Upton is proven. He CAN hit 30 HR. He CAN steal 20 bases. He CAN drive in 88 runs. He CAN get on base. He CAN be worth a 5 WAR. He CAN hit in the clutch (.907 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position). Who is more valuable? Bundy at a 3.4ish ERA and 200 IP and pitching around 30 games OR Upton staying healthy and producing for this team and playing at least 150 games a year?

Bundy potential ace....Upton, proven MLB 25 year old young All Star, with the chance to be an MVP. What's your choice?

The remaining money on the Upton contract really isn't that bad of a deal. The guys described how 3 at about 13 million a piece really isn't that much for a team looking for a RH power hitting OF'er. Not to mention when you factor in that Upton is ONLY 25. He still has his prime ahead of him, and he still has the tools to be a 30/30 player.

Not only is he a plus defender, he hits for power. In the last two seasons he has managed to hit 48 HR, and drive in 155 runs while averaging a .285 AVG/ .362 OBP/ .470 SLG, which is a 2 year average of and .832 OPS. While his career OPS is also .832.

I find there no reason to believe that his stats can't get better coming to Camden Yards, and closer to home (Norfolk, VA). All offseason DD has said that he wants a MOO hitter, and Upton may be just that. He hits for power, and he gets on base (career .352 OBP). Also since 2009 he averages around 20 SB a season. Backing up my MOO argument I should point out that Upton in a 3 year average (2009-2012) had a .907 OPS with 2 outs and runners in scoring position. He can hit in the clutch AND get on base, which is something that we desperately lacked last year, and really, for quite some time. The next best guy for that description would be Markakis.

All things considered, lets take his averages and put them together. I would expect Upton to hit AT LEAST .285/.352/.470 (.822) with 20 SB--with the potential for more, that's just the base of what he could do next season in Baltimore IMO.

Uptons numbers against the AL the past 3 years? Yes its a SSS but worth a look:

BOS .300/.462/.700 1.162

CHW .600/.583/.700 1.283

CLE .273/.333/.545 .878

DET .360/.429/.360 .789

HOU .291/.381/.564 .945

KC .350/.417/.450 .867

LAA .333/.333/.333 .666

MIN .000/.154/.000 .154

NYY .583/.643/.1.167 1.810

OAK .283/.385/.333 .718

SEA .250/.213/.500 .731

TB .556/.667/1.000 1.667

TEX .308/.308/.308 .616

TOR .500/.538/.583 1.121

Getting Upton allows you to move Reimold to DH and slot McLouth in the 4th OF spot, and really allows for interchangeable parts. LF has been a revolving door for us, for sometime. Getting a 25 year old rising superstar/5 tool player, really could set us up for some big things. I mean, this guy is better than Adam Jones was at this age. He steals more, gets on base more, etc. These two next to eachother in the OF could be quite a treat for Baltimore.

At this point, you could do a one for one. Bundy for Upton, and you COULD argue that Upton is more valuable than Bundy. Upton although more expensive, has already proven that he can steal at least 20 bases, hit 30 HR, get on base, and most importantly, stay healthy for an ENTIRE year. Bundy, hasn't done ANY of that. Not to mention even if Bundy can pitch to a 3.4ish ERA, and pitch around 200 innings, he will only be in 30 of the 162 games. IMO, 150 games of Upton and his already proven ML talent, mixed with his MVP-type potential excites me to no end.

Maybe I am wrong for feelings this way, but so be it. Let me know what you think.

[bradyrocks]

Id trade Bundy for Upton in a heartbeat.

Lets say we have the chance to draft a HS stud, or Justin Upton now...in that draft. I think most would draft Justin, it wasnt even board consensus that Bundy should be our pick. Yet we wont trade 1 for 1?

I am bias because i grew up playing with Justin and would love to see him play for my team, but from the few times i have seen Bundy pitch, i wasnt blown away like i was by Strasburg...and honestly Strasburg, Wieters, Trout, and Stanton may be the only people i wouldnt trade for Upton

Keep in mind, even after his MVP caliber year, for whatever reason, they didnt really seem like they wanted him there. Would your bosses seemingly not wanting you around affect your work focus/performance?

[wildcard]

I don't think it is DD and Bucks plan to trade Bundy. He is the #1 pitching prospect in baseball. He will probably pitch in the majors sometime this year. I think the O's plan is to have Bundy and Gausman pitching 1 and 2 in the rotation. Great pitching beats great hitting 9 out of 10 times. The O's are trying to do what the Giants did with Lincecum and Cain. They are setting themselves up to win in the playoffs for years.

Would Upton help the O's? Sure. But he can't shut down the other team in the playoffs the way a #1 pitcher can.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Justin Upton/Career:

Home OPS: .937

Away OPS: .731

Home wRC+: 138

Away wRC+: 96

While it's understandable that the guy is going to have better home splits (especially in AZ), these are pretty alarming for me. Especially the latter two (which are park/league adjusted).

The clutch/high leverage stats are interesting, but the overall RISP numbers are well below norm and the 2 out RISP numbers are inflated by IBB's. Basically, I wouldn't be too enamored by the clutch numbers. Clutch stats are almost always a red herring.

Again, I would not trade Bundy for Upton. Stanton and we're talking.

[VeveJones007]

...or is it OH's obsession and love with its prospects?

I know that this has been discussed in previous threads, but I think that it deserved it's own, seeing as how our "Bundy for Upton" thread has been derailed with trade talk surrounding the Orioles trying to acquire Mike Olt from the Rangers.

Here is what I posted yesterday about the Bundy for Upton debate, and the only negative stat that I can think of is his home and away OPS splits, and my argument to that is this. Chase field is a goog place to hit in, or so I hear. OPACY is a GREAT place to hit in, and one that Upton has never hit in before.

My big question to the board revolves around Bundy's value. The majority says "Bundy for six years is better than 3 years (hopefully more if we got him-i would try and get an extension in place) of Upton.

My argument is as follows. Upton is proven. He CAN hit 30 HR. He CAN steal 20 bases. He CAN drive in 88 runs. He CAN get on base. He CAN be worth a 5 WAR. He CAN hit in the clutch (.907 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position). Who is more valuable? Bundy at a 3.4ish ERA and 200 IP and pitching around 30 games OR Upton staying healthy and producing for this team and playing at least 150 games a year?

Bundy potential ace....Upton, proven MLB 25 year old young All Star, with the chance to be an MVP. What's your choice?

I don't think Upton will ever be an MVP-caliber player. I'd rather role the dice that Bundy will turn out to be an ace. Giancarlo Stanton on the other hand...

[CaptainRedbeard]

I don't think Upton will ever be an MVP-caliber player. I'd rather role the dice that Bundy will turn out to be an ace. Giancarlo Stanton on the other hand...

Upton did earn 4th place in MVP voting just behind Prince Fielder 3rd in his age 23 season in 2011. Braun and Kemp had crazy years that year, but in other years he could have easily won an MVP. His 2012 was quite concerning about ever repeating or improving upon that performance though.

The big difference is years of control and contract. Upton is 3/38, and Bundy is 6/??, with 3 years of league minimum control. That's huge.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

.731 career road OPS =/= the best pitching prospect in baseball.

I like Upton...like, a lot...and I wish we had the pieces to trade for him...but he ain't worth Bundy.

[crissfan172]

Justin Upton/Career:

Home OPS: .937

Away OPS: .731

Home wRC+: 138

Away wRC+: 96

While it's understandable that the guy is going to have better home splits (especially in AZ), these are pretty alarming for me. Especially the latter two (which are park/league adjusted).

The clutch/high leverage stats are interesting, but the overall RISP numbers are well below norm and the 2 out RISP numbers are inflated by IBB's. Basically, I wouldn't be too enamored by the clutch numbers. Clutch stats are almost always a red herring.

Again, I would not trade Bundy for Upton. Stanton and we're talking.

Yeah...pretty much. Not only does Upton have bad splits, but he's only under contract for 3 years for quite a bit more than Bundy is getting paid. Yes...his contract is a bargain for what he'll likely be worth, but not nearly the bargain Bundy will be if he performs anywhere near his potential.

To answer the initial question, though, this has nothing to do with the OH overrating Bundy. He's a consensus top 2 prospect in baseball after all.

[luismatos4prez]

I'm very, very against this move.

If we're going to trade the best pitching prospect since Strasburg, can we please get more than 3 expensive years of a career .832 OPS hitter?

If Bundy even just becomes a decent ML starter, a Brad Penny or Joe Saunders if you will, he'll have more surplus value than Justin Upton's to the team. You gotta remember length of team control and salary with these things.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Also, this really should be merged into the existing Bundy/Upton thread. Just because mean ol' Mike Olt "derailed" that thread doesn't mean we need another one discussing the same bad idea.

[OsHon]

YES!! He is that special! What is wrong with you? We have the number 1 rated pitcher in all of baseball and you want to trade him. We can talk stats and splits and ceilings till the cows come home. Everyone and I mean everyone expects him to be a TOR and a player you build around. Just let it go.

[bluedog]

The whole argument that a player who pitches in 30 games is inherently less valuable than a position player that plays in 150 games a year is a false one in my opinion.

Following is a very brute force approach to my thinking on this. An outfielder may field the ball half a dozen times in a game on defense and get 5 plate appearances. That means they'll average about 10 to 12 opportunities to have an impact on the game each time they play. Multiply it by 150 games and its 1500 to 1800 times a season they will directly impact a game.

A starting pitcher may average 90 pitches a game and start 30 games. That's 2700 times they'll directly impact a game, not including fielding plays.

Or to put it another way. An ace starting pitcher should throw upwards on 200 innings a year. That represents about 15 % of the total number of innings thrown by an entire team.

A star hitter will get about 550 ABs which represents about 10% of the total number of at bats by an entire team.

By either analysis, a top starting pitcher could be seen to have 50% more impact on the team's total stats than a top positional player.

So count me in the keep Bundy camp. If the O's want to improve, I think finding a true TOR ace will have more impact than bringing in a AL Star hitter.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

The whole argument that a player who pitches in 30 games is inherently less valuable than a position player that plays in 150 games a year is a false one in my opinion.

Following is a very brute force approach to my thinking on this. An outfielder may field the ball half a dozen times in a game on defense and get 5 plate appearances. That means they'll average about 10 to 12 opportunities to have an impact on the game each time they play. Multiply it by 150 games and its 1500 to 1800 times a season they will directly impact a game.

A starting pitcher may average 90 pitches a game and start 30 games. That's 2700 times they'll directly impact a game, not including fielding plays.

Or to put it another way. An ace starting pitcher should throw upwards on 200 innings a year. That represents about 15 % of the total number of innings thrown by an entire team.

A star hitter will get about 550 ABs which represents about 10% of the total number of at bats by an entire team.

By either analysis, a top starting pitcher could be seen to have 50% more impact on the team's total stats than a top positional player.

So count me in the keep Bundy camp. If the O's want to improve, I think finding a true TOR ace will have more impact than bringing in a AL Star hitter.

Good points. Also worth noting is the fact that true TOR SPs help to impact games that they don't even pitch in by reducing the workload of the bullpen.

[CaptainRedbeard]

The whole argument that a player who pitches in 30 games is inherently less valuable than a position player that plays in 150 games a year is a false one in my opinion.

Following is a very brute force approach to my thinking on this. An outfielder may field the ball half a dozen times in a game on defense and get 5 plate appearances. That means they'll average about 10 to 12 opportunities to have an impact on the game each time they play. Multiply it by 150 games and its 1500 to 1800 times a season they will directly impact a game.

A starting pitcher may average 90 pitches a game and start 30 games. That's 2700 times they'll directly impact a game, not including fielding plays.

Or to put it another way. An ace starting pitcher should throw upwards on 200 innings a year. That represents about 15 % of the total number of innings thrown by an entire team.

A star hitter will get about 550 ABs which represents about 10% of the total number of at bats by an entire team.

By either analysis, a top starting pitcher could be seen to have 50% more impact on the team's total stats than a top positional player.

So count me in the keep Bundy camp. If the O's want to improve, I think finding a true TOR ace will have more impact than bringing in a AL Star hitter.

You can't really credit the batters with one opportunity per PA and pitchers with one opportunity per pitch. I like the innings vs. AB argument a lot more, that's definitely a simple and accurate way of approaching the issue (although it does ignore defense, which is a rather large part of the game). I wouldn't say pitchers have 50% MORE impact, but the split is pretty even 50/50 IMO.

I think the bar for replacement level starting pitchers is a little higher relative to that of position players, partly because there are 5 SP spots a team and 9 position spots. The top hitters almost always rack up more value than the top pitchers, if you go by WAR or the like.

The real point to be made about the value of a truly elite SP has to do with the parts that are hard to quantify, like the ability to reduce the load on the pen (as DrinkinWithFermi said) and affect a short playoff series. Having Verlander go twice in the ALDS is just cruel, for instance. If you get to that point in the season, the top pitcher in the game is almost always worth more than the top hitter.

In conclusion, blah blah blah, don't trade Bundy for Upton.

[Gurgi]

I think Bundy is perhaps that special. But one thing that I am somewhat nervous about is the kid never got a FB over 94 in his very limited appearances last year. I would of imagine that he was super rested at that point and should of been able to show us that 98 mph bad boy. I just fear anything with our prospects having seen soooo many just crash and burn in the last two decades.

But maybe he was intentionally trying to not be too ampted up?