Is Bundy this special?

[andrewrickli]

Everything I said was a fact, except that Upton has been inconsistent. Looking at his numbers, it's pretty easy to conclude that he's up and down.

He may be up and down, but even when he is down, he is above the average bar. At worst he has been an average OF'er. At best he has been voted #4 in MVP voting.

If he was ours, people here would defend him like no other.

[waroriole]

Remember when Ankiel was the number one prospect? Look what happened.

Andy Marte?

Ruben Mateo?

Fernando Tatis?

Travis Lee?

Jose Cruz, Jr.?

Gordon Beckham?

Lastings Millage?

All guys who were can't miss. I sure missed there superstar seasons...wait, they never had them.

Remember Griffey, ARod, Strasburg etc.? This argument is silly. You can make the point the other way easily.

[Number5]

Adam Jones, we all can agree had a breakout year in 2012. Even then he was only worth 3.4 WAR.

Justin Upton, as a comparison in his "breakout year" had a WAR of 5.7 in 2011 or you could use 2009 and even then he had a WAR of 3.9.

Sorry, but I don't understand how this is relevant to this discussion. That Upton is a very good ballplayer is certainly not a question, at least in my mind. The question, however, is does it make sense to trade 6 years of Bundy for 3 years of Upton @ $38.5 million? Given that we have Jones and Markakis, and that a TOR SP seems to be our biggest need, I really can't see how this is a trade we should consider. Even if Bundy falls short of his ceiling and becomes a mid-rotation guy, the years/salaries would still make him a better value than Upton, IMO. As to meeting team needs, there seems to be little doubt there, either. Left field is a much easier position to fill than TOR, or even #2 or #3 SP, IMO. I'd much rather have Bundy and whoever we can get to fill left field than Upton and whoever we can get to fill the #1, #2, or #3 rotation spots. Sure, Bundy could get hurt, so could Upton, or any other player or prospect. Unless you have a real reason to suspect that injury is a much bigger risk for one particular guy, it really can't be predicted to any degree of accuracy. Whether you believe Bundy is the #1 prospect or not, there is little doubt that many consider him at least in the discussion. Would I like Upton on my team? Of course. Would I trade Bundy for him right now? No chance.

[Tryptamine]

People are paying way too much attention to Upton's 2012 where he played through injury. For me the single biggest concern with Upton is the rumor that was floating around that he had a degenerative shoulder issue. Whether it's true or not, I have no idea.

[andrewrickli]

Remember Griffey, ARod, Strasburg etc.? This argument is silly. You can make the point the other way easily.

Yeah I do? But you make ZERO sense.

My point is simple and fact. Not every top prospect pans out, and the odds are against prospects to ever blossom into their "star potential".

I never said that prospects don't pan out. I said that the percentage of them panning out into an MVP hitter or a Cy Young pitcher isn't that great. I realize that some prospects blossom into HOF'ers, but I also realize that more prospects don't pan out, than the ones who do.

[waroriole]

Yeah I do? But you make ZERO sense.

My point is simple and fact. Not every top prospect pans out, and the odds are against prospects to ever blossom into their "star potential".

So, trade every prospect for proven guys?

[andrewrickli]

Sorry, but I don't understand how this is relevant to this discussion. That Upton is a very good ballplayer is certainly not a question, at least in my mind. The question, however, is does it make sense to trade 6 years of Bundy for 3 years of Upton @ $38.5 million? Given that we have Jones and Markakis, and that a TOR SP seems to be our biggest need, I really can't see how this is a trade we should consider. Even if Bundy falls short of his ceiling and becomes a mid-rotation guy, the years/salaries would still make him a better value than Upton, IMO. As to meeting team needs, there seems to be little doubt there, either. Left field is a much easier position to fill than TOR, or even #2 or #3 SP, IMO. I'd much rather have Bundy and whoever we can get to fill left field than Upton and whoever we can get to fill the #1, #2, or #3 rotation spots. Sure, Bundy could get hurt, so could Upton, or any other player or prospect. Unless you have a real reason to suspect that injury is a much bigger risk for one particular guy, it really can't be predicted to any degree of accuracy. Whether you believe Bundy is the #1 prospect or not, there is little doubt that many consider him at least in the discussion. Would I like Upton on my team? Of course. Would I trade Bundy for him right now? No chance.

How do you know that Bundy is a TOR SP? You don't. The same way we didn't know that Ben McDonald was never going to be a TOR. You just don't know.

To the second bolded part-how? What if Upton becomes the .900 OPS type guy? We have plenty of pitchers that are capable of filling a #3 slot in the rotation, and I'm sure in the future we will have some more prospects that will be making minimum that can fill that hole, just like Bundy will be if he doesn't pan out.

[andrewrickli]

So, trade every prospect for proven guys?

No, but when you need a bat, and you are a playoff contending team that isn't "rebuilding" it's what you do to get talent on the trade market. You have to trade talent to get talent. See the Rangers.

t would be different if Bundy was our only potential TOR starter in our minor league system, but we have Bundy, and Gausman, and some think that E. Rodriguez can be a top prospect one day.

[El Gordo]

Upton has a career .832 OPS. Be great to have that in LF and he could give us more. But there are other ways we can get that .830 OPS out of LF. We may even get it this year from Reimold/McLouth. Bundy/Gausman are our best shot at getting that TOR that we need much more than a LF, in order to contend. Sure there are no guarantees, except that PA is never going to fork up 5/100M for a FA TOR, and to acquire one in trade(say King Felix) would gut not only our farm system, bit signifant parts of our core.I'd much ratger bet on Bundy.

[andrewrickli]

No team in their right mind would ever trade Stanton for Bundy. That's a ridiculous trade idea for the Marlins.

Upton is more realistic, IMO.

AZ needs SP especially after they gave up Bauer.

[andrewrickli]

Upton has a career .832 OPS. Be great to have that in LF and he could give us more. But there are other ways we can get that .830 OPS out of LF. We may even get it this year from Reimold/McLouth. Bundy/Gausman are our best shot at getting that TOR that we need much more than a LF, in order to contend. Sure there are no guarantees, except that PA is never going to fork up 5/100M for a FA TOR, and to acquire one in trade(say King Felix) would gut not only our farm system, bit signifant parts of our core.I'd much ratger bet on Bundy.

Reimold isn't good with a glove, and is terribly inhury prone. McLouth, while he did spark us last year, he only hit around .250. McLouth is more of a 4th OF'er.

[andrewrickli]

Bundy is a great prospect. It's not just Oriole fans or media who are saying that. At the same time, he's a prospect and he's a pitcher. Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Brien Taylor, etc. I would trade Bundy+ to get Stanton. I would think a lot harder about it when discussing Upton. I think it's just my peronal feelings on Upton. Even though he's had two really strong seasons in the last 4, I don't see a great hitter when I watch him. There has also been some talk about his attitude. I'm 50/50 on a Bundy for Upton but would probably say no because I'm not convinced Upton is a star.

Exactly right about Stanton, if the Marlins trade him for Bundy, their FO needs to be cleaned out. I would NEVER trade a proven MOO bat at 23 for an unproven pitching prospect.

[andrewrickli]

OH has always valued O's players more than other teams. I remember all the trades of 2012, and most were upset with them. We gave up Lino for Thome?? Guthrie for Hammel and Lindstrom???

Most people were mad after those deals and look how well they worked out for us. People here tend to get tunnel vision when it comes to valuing our players, IMO

[atomic]

I would trade Bundy for Stanton but not for Upton. I trust the guys running the club now and if they think Bundy is number 1 starter material you can't make that trade. Upton is an above average ball player but he is already going to be making top money. If you think Bundy could be a Mussina type player you have to keep him unless you get a superstar in return.

[hendu]

Adam Jones, we all can agree had a breakout year in 2012. Even then he was only worth 3.4 WAR.

Justin Upton, as a comparison in his "breakout year" had a WAR of 5.7 in 2011 or you could use 2009 and even then he had a WAR of 3.9.

Why do you keep comparing Jones to Upton? You're not proposing that they be traded for each other. Nowhere did you say, "Look, you all think that Jones is a star, and since Upton is better, we should want to trade for him too."

Your interpretation of an ace is also a bit too strict. You didn't list the Cliff Lee's, Greinke's, Gallardo's, Gio Gonzalez's, James Shields' etc etc. Granted, even if you run the list of aces to 20-25, I agree that the math might not add-up. I don't think that Frobby was saying based on on the odds...he was stating that he thinks that there's a better chance than not of Bundy being an ace.