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PECOTA projects the Orioles record at 74-88


Tony-OH

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I am not sure the other teams in the AL East are better yet.
It doesn't matter if we got worse.

Red Sox: Lost Ellsbury, signed Pierzynski but lost Saltalamcchia, signed Mujica, probably will lose Drew.

Rays: Acquired Hanigan and Bell, lost Rodney.

Yankees: Signed Ellsbury to replace Granderson, signed Roberts and Kelly Johnson to replace Cano, signed Beltran and McCann, lost Pettitte, Hughes and Rivera.

Blue Jays: Signed Navarro to replace Arencibia.

As things stand today, I think we're a .500ish team. There's still a lot to happen.

It remains to be seen if there's still a lot to happen, but if we're a .500ish team then it doesn't matter that the other teams didn't improve. They were already better than we were. Specifically, The Red Sox and Rays still have the best pitching in the division and as weams will tell you, it's all about the pitching.

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It remains to be seen if there's still a lot to happen, but if we're a .500ish team then it doesn't matter that the other teams didn't improve. They were already better than we were. Specifically, The Red Sox and Rays still have the best pitching in the division and as weams will tell you, it's all about the pitching.

Then the Yankees are in serious trouble, for now, down Pettitte, Hughes and Rivera. The Jays aren't any great shakes either.

We need more pitching, I'd agree, but I think our potential starters are better than last year's group (from the first half of the season).

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From this thread about 2013 PECOTA's, before the start of last season. PECOTA had us at 74-88.

I think the improvements made by Toronto and Boston make [winning more than 93 games] a tall order. The O's went 24-12 against those two teams last year and I think that will be very hard to duplicate. My guess is that it will be hard for any AL East team to win significantly more than 90 games this year. I think 91-92 will win the division this year.
I think Boston is actually worse on paper. I can see the Bronx being a Zoo. Toronto certainly spent money like the Marlins did last year. I do think the Rays will be batter, even without Shields.
Whether or not Boston and Toronto overpaid for the players they acquired, they should be improved on the field for 2013, not just because of who they acquired, but because they figure to be healthier. I do expect the Yankees to be down from 2012, and personally, I think Tampa will be down, too. Everyone talks about Shields, but losing Upton and Keppinger also hurts.

I think it all adds up to a delicious dogfight in 2013, with all five teams possibly in the 80-92 win range. I still think Boston is the worst team in the division, but a .500ish record from them wouldn't surprise me.

[Responding to someone expecting the Yankees to be better in 2013 than in 2012] I just don't see this. Youkilis is 34, injury prone and on a steep downhill slide. Ichiro is 39 and will be hard pressed to replicate what he did as a Yankee last year. Rivera is 43, coming off a serious injury and will not be likely to outperform what Soriano did last year. Hafner is 36. Pineda is coming off shoulder surgery and who knows whether he'll contribute. Romine and Cervelli aren't as good as Martin. Who knows whether Jeter will be able to come back from his ankle and be as good as in 2012, when he already was defying gravity. I will be absolutely shocked if the Yankees don't slip at least a few games in 2013.

Well, I did better than PECOTA last year. I had Boston up (not as far up as they were in reality, though) and New York down. So I won't put much stock in PECOTA's 75-87 prediction for 2014.

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According to the Clubhouse Confidential on MLB Network, PECOTA projects the Orioles record at 74-88.

So we have Vegas giving us the over/under at 76.5 and PECOTA projected 74 wins.

I know this has been beat into the ground, but it does goes to show that besides some optimism from the fans and organization, most people predict a deep dive for the Orioles in 2013.

Me, I think we're about an 82 win team give or take 4-5 wins.

You were pretty much spot on.

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From this thread about 2013 PECOTA's, before the start of last season. PECOTA had us at 74-88.

Well, I did better than PECOTA last year. I had Boston up (not as far up as they were in reality, though) and New York down. So I won't put much stock in PECOTA's 75-87 prediction for 2014.

What about the roughly 10 or 12 straight years where we all quibbled/argued with/lambasted PECOTA's projection of about 70 wins and they were more-or-less right every year?

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        Pecota   Actual   Diff2013      75       85      +102012      71       93      +222011      81       69      -122010      78       66      -122009      74       64      -102008      66       68      + 22007      74       69      - 52006      77       70      - 72005      78       74      - 42004      80       78      - 22003      69       71      + 2

Over its history, PECOTA has predicted the Orioles for 38 more wins than have actually been obtained (though the last two seasons has seen a net of 32 wins in the other direction).

The standard deviation is 8 wins (meaning PECOTA has been off it's mark an average of 8 wins every year). That number is obviously getting worse as the standard deviation has hiked up to 13.2 over the last 5 years. That's a pretty wide swing in either direction for a projection system.

Forgive me if I don't take these too seriously.

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It remains to be seen if there's still a lot to happen, but if we're a .500ish team then it doesn't matter that the other teams didn't improve. They were already better than we were. Specifically, The Red Sox and Rays still have the best pitching in the division and as weams will tell you, it's all about the pitching.

It's always all about the pitching. And the defense. And the THREE run homer. Not the solo shots.

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        Pecota   Actual   Diff2013      75       85      +102012      71       93      +222011      81       69      -122010      78       66      -122009      74       64      -102008      66       68      + 22007      74       69      - 52006      77       70      - 72005      78       74      - 42004      80       78      - 22003      69       71      + 2

Over its history, PECOTA has predicted the Orioles for 38 more wins than have actually been obtained (though the last two seasons has seen a net of 32 wins in the other direction).

The standard deviation is 8 wins (meaning PECOTA has been off it's mark an average of 8 wins every year). That number is obviously getting worse as the standard deviation has hiked up to 13.2 over the last 5 years. That's a pretty wide swing in either direction for a projection system.

Forgive me if I don't take these too seriously.

You shouldn't take it very seriously because it's impossible to project within more than about +/- 6 or 8 wins with any consistency. Even if God himself did a fantasy draft and made every single team have exactly the same talent you'd get some teams winning 90 and some winning 70.

Every projection implies (or should imply) at least five wins on either side as error bars.

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