TT: Arrieta takes lead in 5th starter competition

[Hank Scorpio]

Why does he have TOR potential? Because he can throw 95 at times? I'm very tired of good velocity being mistaken for TOR potential. I just recently posted the FB speeds of the top 15 in fWAR over the last three seasons, and there's only a mild correlation between velocity and being a TOR. There are TOR guys who throw under 90 mph like Jared Weaver, and a lot of TOR guys who throw softer than Arrieta.

In my opinion, Arrieta has no more TOR potential than Tillman, Britton or Matusz.

Less, IMO.

[Il BuonO]

Why does he have TOR potential? Because he can throw 95 at times? I'm very tired of good velocity being mistaken for TOR potential. I just recently posted the FB speeds of the top 15 in fWAR over the last three seasons, and there's only a mild correlation between velocity and being a TOR. There are TOR guys who throw under 90 mph like Jared Weaver, and a lot of TOR guys who throw softer than Arrieta.

In my opinion, Arrieta has no more TOR potential than Tillman, Britton or Matusz.

He didn't mention anything in his post about velocity. You did. It's more than that. As he said, what is frustrating about Jake is that he can look dominating at times and then look like he's gone completely off the rails.

[weams]

The first part of your post doesn't make much sense. If TJ is kept, someone's option has to be used to get them off of the roster.

Most people didn't mind keep Flaherty until it was apparent we were competitive.

Yeah, I think that I meant to say that I would not be surprised to send someone with an option down in order to keep TJ for a bit of a longer look. Or I thought I was trying to say that at the time

[weams]

I almost belief TJ has to fail at the ML level to be sent back instead of someone's option used. I know many clamored last season for Flaherty to be returned for a myriad of reasons. I think they will take an extended look at TJ.

I meant that I think that TJ would not be sent back right away and that someone's option might be used. Even if that pitcher who is sent down appears to be a bit ahead of McFarland at the time.

[SrMeowMeow]

Why does he have TOR potential? Because he can throw 95 at times? I'm very tired of good velocity being mistaken for TOR potential. I just recently posted the FB speeds of the top 15 in fWAR over the last three seasons, and there's only a mild correlation between velocity and being a TOR. There are TOR guys who throw under 90 mph like Jared Weaver, and a lot of TOR guys who throw softer than Arrieta.

In my opinion, Arrieta has no more TOR potential than Tillman, Britton or Matusz.

There aren't many elite pitchers who throw under 90. I don't think there's anything particularly obscene about saying that great stuff means a higher ceiling and a higher floor.

[El Gordo]

Yeah, I think that I meant to say that I would not be surprised to send someone with an option down in order to keep TJ for a bit of a longer look. Or I thought I was trying to say that at the time

Funny, that's exactly what I thought you were saying, but I'm used to Donaldspeak.

[El Gordo]

There aren't many elite pitchers who throw under 90. I don't think there's anything particularly obscene about saying that great stuff means a higher ceiling and a higher floor.

Great stuff doesn't just mean velocity. IMO TOR = location,, location, location.

[kyleott]

Why does he have TOR potential? Because he can throw 95 at times? I'm very tired of good velocity being mistaken for TOR potential. I just recently posted the FB speeds of the top 15 in fWAR over the last three seasons, and there's only a mild correlation between velocity and being a TOR. There are TOR guys who throw under 90 mph like Jared Weaver, and a lot of TOR guys who throw softer than Arrieta.

In my opinion, Arrieta has no more TOR potential than Tillman, Britton or Matusz.

I'll throw in my $.02. He has TOR potential not solely because of the 95+ fastball. For starters, it's not just the fact that it's a 95 mph fastball, it's the kind of 95 mph fastball. I would venture to say no other pitcher has the lateral movement that Jake does with his fastball. He has also flashed a plus-slider and a drop-off-the-table, hammer-curve.

He has absolutely tantalizing potential. He also has absolutely maddening inconsistency. But I will agree with the sentiment that, of the cavalry, Arrieta has the the most TOR potential. On the nights where he is on, he captivates with 96 mph fastballs that run back over the outside of the plate at the knees. His problem is when he tries to place his fastball instead of just trusting it, and as result the walks accumulate. Not too many pitchers have the natural action on their fastball that Jake does.

He is talking a lot about working with Rick Adair. If they can refine his motion to the point where his release point is consistent, then he can really start to build. With the emphasis on changeups throughout the organization, a repeatable delivery on your fastball is the foundation for a deadly change -- which is his worst pitch at the moment of the 4 that he should move forward with.

[SrMeowMeow]

Great stuff doesn't just mean velocity. IMO TOR = location,, location, location.

But great stuff is largely independent of control. I think it should also be very obvious that I'm not equating great stuff with great results.

[El Gordo]

But great stuff is largely independent of control. I think it should also be very obvious that I'm not equating great stuff with great results.

Just not only velocity. Movement plus command is what separates the chaff from the bran, even if it's just a 91-93 mph FB.

[sfosfan]

Not too long ago I made a poll asking which pitcher has the nastiest stuff, and Arrieta won out. Thought the case was closed that Jake has the best stuff, so isn't that the same thing as having TOR potential? If Jakes shows better control, THEN will the doubters come around? Yes, the word "potential" is so overused. But nobody can deny Jake's stuff is good enough to be a staff ace. If that control issues gets figured out, then case closed.

[SrMeowMeow]

Just not only velocity. Movement plus command is what separates the chaff from the bran, even if it's just a 91-93 mph FB.

Stuff in terms of, you know, stuff. What people mean when they say stuff referring to pitchers. Some impressive combination of movement and velocity, and usually at least two really good pitches per those criteria. Command is unrelated, thus how every other elite prospect has "electric stuff, remains to be seen if he can command it well enough" in their report.

[sevastras]

Not too long ago I made a poll asking which pitcher has the nastiest stuff, and Arrieta won out. Thought the case was closed that Jake has the best stuff, so isn't that the same thing as having TOR potential? If Jakes shows better control, THEN will the doubters come around? Yes, the word "potential" is so overused. But nobody can deny Jake's stuff is good enough to be a staff ace. If that control issues gets figured out, then case closed.

I dont know, I have never been convinced that Arrieta has the best stuff. Gausman is sure impressive. My opinion on best stuff is Gausman, Bundy, Matusz, and then everyone else is just a touch or two behind. I know people arent sold on Matusz because he struggled, but to think of the O's as having a surpluss of great pitching is awesome.

[JayThomas]

The 3 BB's trouble me. He just has to improve the command. Right now I think the best bet is to go with Matusz as the #5 and keep McFarland in the pen. That way if McFarland struggles we can send him back and either replace him with someone else, or move Matusz to the pen if he is struggling as well, and bring up one of Arrieta or Britton to be the #5. Why give up McFarland before we have to?

Precisely.

[JayThomas]

I almost belief TJ has to fail at the ML level to be sent back instead of someone's option used. I know many clamored last season for Flaherty to be returned for a myriad of reasons. I think they will take an extended look at TJ.

Me too. I think that last year demonstrated that (1) they aren't messing around with their Rule 5 picks - they want those guys in their organization and (2) they trust their scouts and their own eyes to determine that these Rule 5 picks can hold their own and contribute enough to warrant stashing them on the team in a utility / bullpen role. I think if McFarland continues to get it done, he sticks. That almost mandates that if Matusz also continues to get it done, then he gets the role in the rotation. I don't think they start McFarland, no matter how he does. I think they stash him in the bullpen and utilize him in situations where he can excel, as is Buck's MO.