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TT: Arrieta takes lead in 5th starter competition

Tony-OH

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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It was pretty evident that Jake's problem throwing strikes early in the count was mental not physical. Because he could throw strikes when he had to. Like it or not Wieters is the O's field general and he may have been able to affect whether Jake applied himself to throw strikes earlier in the count.

So, Wieters can will Arrieta to throw strikes? Perhaps he is a God then... ;)

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Grt 2BA FL Gator All-Star

Grt 2BA FL Gator

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Sure it would, I just think his best role is as a reliever. Here's his splits over his career:
 	Split 	       G 	 PA 	AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	SB 	CS 	BB 	SO 	SO/BB 	BA 	OBP 	SLG 	OPS 	TB 	GDP 	HBP 	SH 	SF 	IBB 	ROE 	BAbip 	tOPS+1stPA in G, as SP 68 	614 	552 	58 	148 	26 	2 	19 	0 	1 	50 	124 	2.48 	.268 	.330 	.426 	.755 	235 	13 	3 	4 	5 	0 	11 	.312 	862nd PA in G, as SP 67 	570 	502 	88 	146 	33 	3 	22 	3 	2 	54 	100 	1.85 	.291 	.359 	.500 	.859 	251 	8 	3 	4 	7 	3 	4 	.320 	1103rd PA in G, as SP 59 	385 	350 	56 	111 	24 	2 	16 	2 	1 	32 	52 	1.63 	.317 	.375 	.534 	.909 	187 	3 	1 	1 	1 	4 	4 	.336 	1214th+ PA in G, as SP 17 	26 	21 	4 	8 	1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	3 	5 	1.67 	.381 	.458 	.429 	.887 	9 	0 	0 	2 	0 	0 	0 	.500 	1231st PA in G, as RP 18 	47 	44 	1 	5 	0 	0 	1 	0 	0 	3 	19 	6.33 	.114 	.170 	.182 	.352 	8 	1 	0 	0 	0 	1 	0 	.167 	-12

The more times a batters sees him the more success he has off Matusz.

I 	Split 	      G 	PA 	AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	SB 	CS 	BB 	SO 	SO/BB 	BA 	OBP 	SLG 	OPS 	TB 	GDP 	HBP 	SH 	SF 	IBB 	ROE 	BAbip 	tOPS+Pitch 1-25 	86 	434 	391 	39 	108 	18 	0 	16 	0 	1 	33 	93 	2.82 	.276 	.333 	.445 	.778 	174 	8 	2 	4 	4 	1 	8 	.322 	90Pitch 26-50 	67 	421 	377 	56 	105 	21 	4 	13 	1 	1 	37 	71 	1.92 	.279 	.347 	.459 	.806 	173 	10 	4 	0 	3 	2 	5 	.311 	97Pitch 51-75 	65 	417 	365 	57 	103 	25 	0 	14 	2 	2 	43 	76 	1.77 	.282 	.354 	.466 	.820 	170 	5 	0 	5 	4 	2 	2 	.319 	101Pitch 76-100 	57 	327 	297 	46 	90 	17 	2 	13 	2 	0 	25 	54 	2.16 	.303 	.357 	.505 	.862 	150 	2 	1 	2 	2 	2 	4 	.332 	110Pitch 101+ 	19 	43 	39 	9 	12 	3 	1 	2 	0 	0 	4 	6 	1.50 	.308 	.372 	.590 	.962 	23 	0 	0 	0 	0 	1 	0 	.323 	132

After 75 pitches, Matusz becomes very hittable.

 	Split 	             W 	L 	W-L% 	ERA 	G 	GS 	GF 	CG 	SHO 	SV 	IP 	H 	R 	ER 	HR 	BB 	IBB 	SO 	HBP 	BK 	WP 	BF 	WHIP 	SO/9 	SO/BBas Starter 	21 	33 	.389 	5.51 	68 	68 	0 	0 	0 	0 	354.2 	413 	231 	217 	57 	139 	7 	281 	7 	0 	1 	1595 	1.556 	7.1 	2.02as Reliever 	1 	0 	1.000 	1.35 	18 	0 	2 	0 	0 	0 	13.1 	5 	2 	2 	1 	3 	1 	19 	0 	0 	0 	47 	0.600 	12.8 	6.33

Obviously these are under small sample size as a reliever, but when you take his lack of effectiveness the longer he's out there, the more it appears that his best role is in the bullpen.

I do understand the career splits and how they are going to pretty much suck. Here are the splits from 2010, when Brian was at his best mentally/physically:

[table]

[thead][tr][th]Split[/th][th]G[/th][th]IP[/th][th]ER[/th][th]ERA[/th][th]H[/th][th]BB[/th][th]SO[/th][th]BA[/th][th]OBP[/th][th]SLG[/th][th]OPS[/th][/tr][/thead]

[tr][td]1st inning[/td][td]32[/td][td]32.0[/td][td]12[/td][td]3.38[/td][td]28[/td][td]10[/td][td]29[/td][td].230[/td][td].294[/td][td].336[/td][td].630[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]2nd inning[/td][td]31[/td][td]30.2[/td][td]12[/td][td]3.52[/td][td]21[/td][td]10[/td][td]32[/td][td].194[/td][td].269[/td][td].324[/td][td].593[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]3rd inning[/td][td]30[/td][td]29.1[/td][td]17[/td][td]5.22[/td][td]34[/td][td]12[/td][td]22[/td][td].296[/td][td].366[/td][td].461[/td][td].827[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]4th inning[/td][td]28[/td][td]27.0[/td][td]17[/td][td]5.67[/td][td]32[/td][td]8[/td][td]25[/td][td].291[/td][td].342[/td][td].445[/td][td].787[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]5th inning[/td][td]25[/td][td]25.0[/td][td]7[/td][td]2.52[/td][td]18[/td][td]10[/td][td]20[/td][td].194[/td][td].279[/td][td].355[/td][td].634[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]6th inning[/td][td]22[/td][td]20.2[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.48[/td][td]26[/td][td]7[/td][td]11[/td][td].310[/td][td].359[/td][td].452[/td][td].811[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]7th inning[/td][td]13[/td][td]8.2[/td][td]6[/td][td]6.23[/td][td]9[/td][td]6[/td][td]2[/td][td].265[/td][td].375[/td][td].324[/td][td].699[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]8th inning[/td][td]3[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]5[/td][td]19.29[/td][td]5[/td][td]0[/td][td]2[/td][td].417[/td][td].417[/td][td].667[/td][td]1.083[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]Innings 1-3[/td][td]32[/td][td]92.0[/td][td]41[/td][td]4.01[/td][td]83[/td][td]32[/td][td]83[/td][td].241[/td][td].311[/td][td].374[/td][td].685[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]Innings 4-6[/td][td]28[/td][td]72.2[/td][td]32[/td][td]3.96[/td][td]76[/td][td]25[/td][td]56[/td][td].265[/td][td].326[/td][td].418[/td][td].744[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]Innings 7-9[/td][td]13[/td][td]11.0[/td][td]11[/td][td]9.00[/td][td]14[/td][td]6[/td][td]4[/td][td].304[/td][td].385[/td][td].413[/td][td].798[/td][/tr]

[/table]

I would say these aren't nearly as conclusive or damning as the career splits. Again, me choosing to look at his best year at a young age when we all were very high on him. I guess I haven't come down from that high, because I think that guy is still there somewhere..

This one may be even more revealing. He demonstrated the ability to navigate through 100 pitches quite well:

[table]

[thead][tr][th]Split[/th][th]G[/th][th]PA[/th][th]AB[/th][th]R[/th][th]H[/th][th]BB[/th][th]SO[/th][th]BA[/th][th]OBP[/th][th]SLG[/th][th]OPS[/th][/tr][/thead]

[tr][td]Pitch 1-25[/td][td]32[/td][td]172[/td][td]149[/td][td]12[/td][td]35[/td][td]17[/td][td]35[/td][td].235[/td][td].318[/td][td].322[/td][td].640[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]Pitch 26-50[/td][td]31[/td][td]195[/td][td]181[/td][td]20[/td][td]40[/td][td]9[/td][td]45[/td][td].221[/td][td].272[/td][td].381[/td][td].653[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]Pitch 51-75[/td][td]31[/td][td]196[/td][td]170[/td][td]28[/td][td]54[/td][td]21[/td][td]37[/td][td].318[/td][td].389[/td][td].500[/td][td].889[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]Pitch 76-100[/td][td]27[/td][td]164[/td][td]148[/td][td]13[/td][td]38[/td][td]13[/td][td]23[/td][td].257[/td][td].319[/td][td].385[/td][td].704[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]Pitch 101+[/td][td]13[/td][td]33[/td][td]30[/td][td]3[/td][td]6[/td][td]3[/td][td]3[/td][td].200[/td][td].273[/td][td].300[/td][td].573[/td][/tr]

[/table]

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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I do understand the career splits and how they are going to pretty much suck. Here are the splits from 2010, when Brian was at his best mentally/physically:

[table]

[thead][tr][th]Split[/th][th]G[/th][th]IP[/th][th]ER[/th][th]ERA[/th][th]H[/th][th]BB[/th][th]SO[/th][th]BA[/th][th]OBP[/th][th]SLG[/th][th]OPS[/th][/tr][/thead]

[tr][td]1st inning[/td][td]32[/td][td]32.0[/td][td]12[/td][td]3.38[/td][td]28[/td][td]10[/td][td]29[/td][td].230[/td][td].294[/td][td].336[/td][td].630[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]2nd inning[/td][td]31[/td][td]30.2[/td][td]12[/td][td]3.52[/td][td]21[/td][td]10[/td][td]32[/td][td].194[/td][td].269[/td][td].324[/td][td].593[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]3rd inning[/td][td]30[/td][td]29.1[/td][td]17[/td][td]5.22[/td][td]34[/td][td]12[/td][td]22[/td][td].296[/td][td].366[/td][td].461[/td][td].827[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]4th inning[/td][td]28[/td][td]27.0[/td][td]17[/td][td]5.67[/td][td]32[/td][td]8[/td][td]25[/td][td].291[/td][td].342[/td][td].445[/td][td].787[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]5th inning[/td][td]25[/td][td]25.0[/td][td]7[/td][td]2.52[/td][td]18[/td][td]10[/td][td]20[/td][td].194[/td][td].279[/td][td].355[/td][td].634[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]6th inning[/td][td]22[/td][td]20.2[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.48[/td][td]26[/td][td]7[/td][td]11[/td][td].310[/td][td].359[/td][td].452[/td][td].811[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]7th inning[/td][td]13[/td][td]8.2[/td][td]6[/td][td]6.23[/td][td]9[/td][td]6[/td][td]2[/td][td].265[/td][td].375[/td][td].324[/td][td].699[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]8th inning[/td][td]3[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]5[/td][td]19.29[/td][td]5[/td][td]0[/td][td]2[/td][td].417[/td][td].417[/td][td].667[/td][td]1.083[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]Innings 1-3[/td][td]32[/td][td]92.0[/td][td]41[/td][td]4.01[/td][td]83[/td][td]32[/td][td]83[/td][td].241[/td][td].311[/td][td].374[/td][td].685[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]Innings 4-6[/td][td]28[/td][td]72.2[/td][td]32[/td][td]3.96[/td][td]76[/td][td]25[/td][td]56[/td][td].265[/td][td].326[/td][td].418[/td][td].744[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]Innings 7-9[/td][td]13[/td][td]11.0[/td][td]11[/td][td]9.00[/td][td]14[/td][td]6[/td][td]4[/td][td].304[/td][td].385[/td][td].413[/td][td].798[/td][/tr]

[/table]

I would say these aren't nearly as conclusive or damning as the career splits. Again, me choosing to look at his best year at a young age when we all were very high on him. I guess I haven't come down from that high, because I think that guy is still there somewhere..

This one may be even more revealing. He demonstrated the ability to navigate through 100 pitches quite well:

[table]

[thead][tr][th]Split[/th][th]G[/th][th]PA[/th][th]AB[/th][th]R[/th][th]H[/th][th]BB[/th][th]SO[/th][th]BA[/th][th]OBP[/th][th]SLG[/th][th]OPS[/th][/tr][/thead]

[tr][td]Pitch 1-25[/td][td]32[/td][td]172[/td][td]149[/td][td]12[/td][td]35[/td][td]17[/td][td]35[/td][td].235[/td][td].318[/td][td].322[/td][td].640[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]Pitch 26-50[/td][td]31[/td][td]195[/td][td]181[/td][td]20[/td][td]40[/td][td]9[/td][td]45[/td][td].221[/td][td].272[/td][td].381[/td][td].653[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]Pitch 51-75[/td][td]31[/td][td]196[/td][td]170[/td][td]28[/td][td]54[/td][td]21[/td][td]37[/td][td].318[/td][td].389[/td][td].500[/td][td].889[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]Pitch 76-100[/td][td]27[/td][td]164[/td][td]148[/td][td]13[/td][td]38[/td][td]13[/td][td]23[/td][td].257[/td][td].319[/td][td].385[/td][td].704[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]Pitch 101+[/td][td]13[/td][td]33[/td][td]30[/td][td]3[/td][td]6[/td][td]3[/td][td]3[/td][td].200[/td][td].273[/td][td].300[/td][td].573[/td][/tr]

[/table]

Even your stats show Matusz significantly better through 50 pitches and through the first two innings. Sure, you can take any stretch and twist the numbers around, but at the end of the day, every stat we have suggests Matusz starts to wear down after 50 pitches and he's extremely effective in short stints out of the bullpen. I think Matusz can be an Arthur Rhodes type of reliever who will be very valuable to this team in that role.

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Hank Scorpio Hangout Grand Counsel

Hank Scorpio

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Even your stats show Matusz significantly better through 50 pitches and through the first two innings. Sure, you can take any stretch and twist the numbers around, but at the end of the day, every stat we have suggests Matusz starts to wear down after 50 pitches and he's extremely effective in short stints out of the bullpen. I think Matusz can be an Arthur Rhodes type of reliever who will be very valuable to this team in that role.

I know another guy like that...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=arrieja01&year=&t=p

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Grt 2BA FL Gator All-Star

Grt 2BA FL Gator

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Even your stats show Matusz significantly better through 50 pitches and through the first two innings. Sure, you can take any stretch and twist the numbers around, but at the end of the day, every stat we have suggests Matusz starts to wear down after 50 pitches and he's extremely effective in short stints out of the bullpen. I think Matusz can be an Arthur Rhodes type of reliever who will be very valuable to this team in that role.

Fair enough. I think the pitch 76-100 shows he had a pretty solid ability to navigate 7 or so innings when he was right. Clearly the 50-75 pitch mark was a struggle but unlike a Tommy Hunter or Koji who you knew was going to hit a wall (Tommy in the 4th, Koji in the 6th) Brian showed the ability quite a few times to keep teams off balance with all four of his pitches. I think he also did a much better job in 2010 going inside on lefties. We shall see (or again, at least I hope we get to at some point).

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sevastras All-Star

sevastras

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Clearly, I am showing myself to be a Matusz homer (Not even sure why I am, must have been romanced by that 2010 season), but for the O's, wouldn't it make more sense to at least try to reestablish his value as a starter? If it were me, I'd like for him to even go down to AAA and get stretched out if he doesn't win out the #5 job right now.

I like to think that the jury is still out on him as starter. He's young, had some real sustained success and may have regained some of the mental strength he lost from the massacre that was 2011.

Obviously that's all how I choose to look at it. I can understand how someone would look at the last two years and say the guy has had his chances.

But a big part of me feels like he has all the tools, he just hasn't been able to put it all together the last couple of years. I guess you could say that about him and Arrieta, but I think Brian has had more sustained success with his last 10 or so starts in 2010. Don't know if Arrieta has ever really had a stretch like that. He definitely hasn't had a complete season like Brian had in 2010.

Anyways, I can dream and he's the guy I'm rooting for. Just sad to hear that the O's really want him the pen. I know he can be valuable there, but I want to see him get another crack at the rotation.

You should get out of this relationship, it is abusive. He isnt the guy you fell in love with. He swept you off your feet, and then for 2 years he has done nothing but hurt you. You should go live with a friend or something until you can get back on your feet. Just dont see him any more, I cant see you getting hurt like this. I know he was a great guy at first, but he just isnt that same guy. You cant change that.:rofl:

I crack myself up some times. On a serious note, I agree with you. I want him to be awesome, he has the stuff. I would love to see him turn the corner and become who we all hoped he would.

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Grt 2BA FL Gator

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You should get out of this relationship, it is abusive. He isnt the guy you fell in love with. He swept you off your feet, and then for 2 years he has done nothing but hurt you. You should go live with a friend or something until you can get back on your feet. Just dont see him any more, I cant see you getting hurt like this. I know he was a great guy at first, but he just isnt that same guy. You cant change that.:rofl:

I crack myself up some times. On a serious note, I agree with you. I want him to be awesome, he has the stuff. I would love to see him turn the corner and become who we all hoped he would.

I mean it's true. In some senses, it's quite irrational for me to be wrapped up in 2010 and hope the last couple years are not who the real Matusz is.. I guess he really swept me off my feet. August/Sept of 2010 were quite fun!

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Il BuonO Hangout Grand Counsel

Il BuonO

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It was pretty evident that Jake's problem throwing strikes early in the count was mental not physical. Because he could throw strikes when he had to. Like it or not Wieters is the O's field general and he may have been able to affect whether Jake applied himself to throw strikes earlier in the count.

On his ball-strike ratio not being great: "I think a lot of that might have to do with wanting to throw breaking balls early in counts. I just missed with some pitches and the umpire came up to me after an inning and said he missed a couple and he owed me one. So, it's spring training and there are things I have to work on and get ready for the season, but at the same time, I've still got to go out there and compete. "I think when I did get behind some guys, I was able to come right back at them and attack and even the count and get some big outs."

I am posting this from my phone so I had to cut and paste part of of the post from earlier in the thread. Unless you think he's making excuses, then I don't buy the whole 'it was mental thing'. I take him at his word that he was working on the CB early in counts.

That said, he still needs to work ahead next time.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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On his ball-strike ratio not being great: "I think a lot of that might have to do with wanting to throw breaking balls early in counts. I just missed with some pitches and the umpire came up to me after an inning and said he missed a couple and he owed me one. So, it's spring training and there are things I have to work on and get ready for the season, but at the same time, I've still got to go out there and compete. "I think when I did get behind some guys, I was able to come right back at them and attack and even the count and get some big outs."

I am posting this from my phone so I had to cut and paste part of of the post from earlier in the thread. Unless you think he's making excuses, then I don't buy the whole 'it was mental thing'. I take him at his word that he was working on the CB early in counts.

That said, he still needs to work ahead next time.

Nice post. I hadn't seen this. I'll take him at his word also. But it happened a bunch of times. So is that a mental thing, not adjusting? Whatever it is, when he needed to throw a strike he was doing it.

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