Would you put Machado in the category of Harper/Trout?

[orioles942]

Certainly. He's in the same age range and is actually outdoing both of them in WAR this year. He's legit.

IIRC he's saved 6 runs so far this year, tops among 3rd basemen.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

like I said about 20-30 runs a year, 1 a week pace. But, that only figures 1 run scores, but how many big innings does he save cant be calculated? I am sure thier will be a few of those. For instance, Weiters throws out Trout SB on Sunday, likley leads to no runs in that inning but opened up a 3 run inning on a bad call.

[Stotle]

No, I don't. But it's kind of like judging a football player on his sprint time at the combine. Felix Pie had a good arm and great speed - and?

Not really -- grades are given based on in-game implementation (unless designated "raw"). For example, Player X has 6+ raw power but only grades out to a 5+ because of his contact issues.

[Hank Scorpio]

like I said about 20-30 runs a year, 1 a week pace. But, that only figures 1 run scores, but how many big innings does he save cant be calculated? I am sure thier will be a few of those. For instance, Weiters throws out Trout SB on Sunday, likley leads to no runs in that inning but opened up a 3 run inning on a bad call.

Variables are a B.

Problem is, you can't PROJECT Machado's defensive acumen based on these 33 games, necessarily. You can look at what he's done and judge him based on that, but it's hard to project what he's gonna do going forward.

He's 20... he'll get better at the plate and he'll get to know tendencies of pitchers with time. I'm not so sure he'll get better than he is defensively.

[DrungoHazewood]

But that's not how that stat works, right? I mean, that particular measure of defensive value can't simply be averaged out over a 162 game period.

Right. The mostly likely outcome is that Manny being +6 or +8 right now is that he's been both good and lucky in terms of distribution of balls hit his way. All we can say right now is that through less than half a season's worth of defensive innings he appears to be a plus third baseman.

[AlbionHero]

Right. The mostly likely outcome is that Manny being +6 or +8 right now is that he's been both good and lucky in terms of distribution of balls hit his way. All we can say right now is that through less than half a season's worth of defensive innings he appears to be a plus third baseman.

It should be mentioned that in about 50 games last year, he saved 7 runs as well. I know people will continue to talk about small sample size, but at some point we may need to admit he's a great defensive 3B.

[orioles942]

Variables are a B.

Problem is, you can't PROJECT Machado's defensive acumen based on these 33 games, necessarily. You can look at what he's done and judge him based on that, but it's hard to project what he's gonna do going forward.

He's 20... he'll get better at the plate and he'll get to know tendencies of pitchers with time. I'm not so sure he'll get better than he is defensively.

You can say that about every player in baseball. Who thought Adam Jones would get worse defensively, or Chris Davis would get better defensively. If Machado got better defensively you are talking about maybe the best 3rd baseman in recent memory.

[isestrex]

Machado

6+ arm, 6 hit, 6/6+ defense (3b), 5+/6 power, 4+/5 speed

Trout

8 speed, 6+ hit, 6/6+ defense, 5+/6 power, 5 arm

It's pretty hard for me to grade Machado's arm at anything less than a 7. I'd have to hear a pretty good argument for why it isn't an 8.

I agree with everything else.

[Stotle]

Warning. This is me being me. Harper has an 8 arm in the outfield. Manny has a 6+ arm in the infield. 1st question. Is there a difference in grading an outfield arm verses an infield arm? 2nd question. Is there a 3B with a better arm than Manny and who is it? 3rd question. Is there any infielder currently with an 8 arm in your opinion.

Geez, good questions. I honestly don't see enough of every MLB player regularly to feel like I am 100% comfortable with everyone's current grades on arm strength. Brendan Ryan was selected as best infield arm when the BP team did our tools series (which was created based on observation and reaching out to scouts). I believe Beltre, Simmons, Moustakas were all on the short list.

OF vs IF measurements are different in that your seeing players utilize different skills. The mechanics of throwing from the outfield are slightly different than that of an infielder's, and the demands on the player are different as well (OF needs the ball to cover more distance, obviously, and the idea of carry and trajectory can have bigger ripples). Does that make sense? Harper would be an 8 on the infield, as well, though.

[isestrex]

Geez, good questions. I honestly don't see enough of every MLB player regularly to feel like I am 100% comfortable with everyone's current grades on arm strength. Brendan Ryan was selected as best infield arm when the BP team did our tools series (which was created based on observation and reaching out to scouts). I believe Beltre, Simmons, Moustakas were all on the short list.

OF vs IF measurements are different in that your seeing players utilize different skills. The mechanics of throwing from the outfield are slightly different than that of an infielder's, and the demands on the player are different as well (OF needs the ball to cover more distance, obviously, and the idea of carry and trajectory can have bigger ripples). Does that make sense? Harper would be an 8 on the infield, as well, though.

Would you then say Ryan, Simmons and Beltre all have arms a good 2 ranks higher than Machado?

Forgive me but I find this very hard to believe with the 3 months of evidence we have.

[Stotle]

Fair enough. But we have essentially 1 season of numbers from Trout and Harper. Little less than a season from Manny. We can come to no conclusions on any of them because of their lack of time in the league. Therefore, we should be able to group Manny in with those guys as "Extremely Talented and Untested Young Stars". Because of the small sample, we can't really say Trout/Harper are any better than Manny just as we can't say Manny is any better than them.

I disagree, but won't belabor the point. We may be able to say we don't know who will have the better career, but we can certainly look at the data we have, and grade out the various pieces of a player's game, and come to a fairly informed take as to who we THINK will have the better career, outside variables set aside.

[Hank Scorpio]

I disagree, but won't belabor the point. We may be able to say we don't know who will have the better career, but we can certainly look at the data we have, and grade out the various pieces of a player's game, and come to a fairly informed take as to who we THINK will have the better career, outside variables set aside.

I think the big picture is really all that matters. Kid's obviously got game, regardless of "whether he's as good as or better than" either of 'em.

I know you'd concur with that broski.

[El Gordo]

I think Manny is quite capable of putting up David Wright's 2012 numbers with the bat and the glove, this season. And then get better next season.

[DrungoHazewood]

It should be mentioned that in about 50 games last year, he saved 7 runs as well. I know people will continue to talk about small sample size, but at some point we may need to admit he's a great defensive 3B.

I think we can say right now that he's a very good defensive third baseman. You probably don't need any major league track record to be able to qualitatively judge his fielding.

But we're talking the fine differences between good, very good, excellent, and Brooks Robinson. And until we have a lot more than half a season's worth of innings I'm not going to definitively make that call.

[Stotle]

Would you then say Ryan, Simmons and Beltre all have arms a good 2 ranks higher than Machado?

Forgive me but I find this very hard to believe with the 3 months of evidence we have.

Maybe, yeah. But I wouldn't quibble at all with someone dropping a 7 grade on Manny's arm.

[isestrex]

I think Manny is quite capable of putting up David Wright's 2012 numbers with the bat and the glove, this season. And then get better next season.

Good comp (sorry I'm outta rep for today or this would have been a greenie )