Boras: Wieters may Test Free Agency

[olehippi]

Spend the money on Manny and Chris. Weters is horrible. Caleb Joseph needs to get a serious look. No way you over pay for a guy that can't hit. He's a huge bust to me. That's my opinion. Sorry if some of you think it's rediculous. I personally think over spending for a .220 hitter is completely rediculous. trade him while he has value and bring up Joseph. He can't possibly hit any worse.

Have you ever wondered why Caleb Joseph is still playing AA ball in Bowie at age 27? Or why he has played more games in the OF and DH (55) this year than at C (43)?

It might be because he's a defensive liability behind the plate....as in 13 passed balls in those 43 games he's caught. By comparison, Matt Weiters has a grand total of 15 passed balls in his entire 5 years with the Orioles.

Also, despite Weiters' less than stellar .232 BA, he currently has 12 HR's and 44 RBI's and is still on pace to hit 20+ HR's and have 75-80 RBI's. By comparison, Joe Mauer - despite his gaudy .320 BA - only has 8 HR's and 32 RBI's.

[Frobby]

I dont get the mentality of the folks that believe Wieters is no better than a AAA catcher.

Is he the best catcher in MLB, heck no.

Why does he gets the respect of the baseball people for his catching skills. Roch just posted a nice article on it, earlier this week and was already posted him.

Yet, he doesn't get the respect from "SOME" of his hometown fans?????????????

According to fangraphs, Wieters is the 8th best catcher in MLB this year, going by fWAR. Like everyone else, I'm disappointed with his batting average and OBP this season. Hopefully he can bring those up in the remaining 66 games. But to say he is "horrible" or no better than "AAA" or "replacement level" shows an incredible lack of understanding.

[Redskins Rick]

According to fangraphs, Wieters is the 8th best catcher in MLB this year, going by fWAR. Like everyone else, I'm disappointed with his batting average and OBP this season. Hopefully he can bring those up in the remaining 66 games. But to say he is "horrible" or no better than "AAA" or "replacement level" shows an incredible lack of understanding.

8 is respectable, considering how many are ranked under him and it also shows the lack of respect given his abilities by some.

Granted, it would be great, if his bat came back to his career average.

[BohKnowsBmore]

8 is respectable, considering how many are ranked under him and it also shows the lack of respect given his abilities by some.

Granted, it would be great, if his bat came back to his career average.

I'm inclined to believe that he will.

In 2011, his OPS bottomed out (post-April) on August 6 at .699. He ended up OPS'ing .867 in September and finished with an OPS of .778 (110 OPS+)

In 2012, his OPS bottomed out (post-April) on August 6 again at .715. He ended up OPS'ing .930 in September and finished with an OPS of .764 (107 OPS+)

The idea that Matt gets hot later in the season is certainly supported by the numbers. As others have mentioned in other threads, he seems to be hitting a lot of gloves with loud outs. Hi BABIP of .246 is far below his career average of .286. Further, the notion that it's so low because MW "always grounds out weakly to the infield" is misguided, at least as it relates to this season. His GB% is the lowest of his career and his FB% is the highest. His HR/FB% is down on the year which matches my own anecdotal evidence of noticing many long fly balls caught on the warning track or gappers that have hung up just long enough to be run down. Personally, I'm expecting a big bounce back from Matt over the second half (~40%) of the season.

[Frobby]

I'm inclined to believe that he will.

In 2011, his OPS bottomed out (post-April) on August 6 at .699. He ended up OPS'ing .867 in September and finished with an OPS of .778 (110 OPS+)

In 2012, his OPS bottomed out (post-April) on August 6 again at .715. He ended up OPS'ing .930 in September and finished with an OPS of .764 (107 OPS+)

The idea that Matt gets hot later in the season is certainly supported by the numbers. As others have mentioned in other threads, he seems to be hitting a lot of gloves with loud outs. Hi BABIP of .246 is far below his career average of .286. Further, the notion that it's so low because MW "always grounds out weakly to the infield" is misguided, at least as it relates to this season. His GB% is the lowest of his career and his FB% is the highest. His HR/FB% is down on the year which matches my own anecdotal evidence of noticing many long fly balls caught on the warning track or gappers that have hung up just long enough to be run down. Personally, I'm expecting a big bounce back from Matt over the second half (~40%) of the season.

I'm not "expecting" a big bounce back, just hoping for one. The past trends give me reason for hope, but every year is different.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I'm not "expecting" a big bounce back, just hoping for one. The past trends give me reason for hope, but every year is different.

Maybe expect is a bad way of phrasing it. I am hopeful and have good reason to believe that he will.

[calmunderfire]

According to fangraphs, Wieters is the 8th best catcher in MLB this year, going by fWAR. Like everyone else, I'm disappointed with his batting average and OBP this season. Hopefully he can bring those up in the remaining 66 games. But to say he is "horrible" or no better than "AAA" or "replacement level" shows an incredible lack of understanding.

Try to ignore Fangraphs because their calculations are not as accurate as rWAR.

[Going Underground]

Try to ignore Fangraphs because their calculations are not as accurate as rWAR.

I noticed that Baseball reference and ESPN rank Wieters alot lower per War. BR has him at .08 OWAR and -.01 DWAR. ESPN has him really low on WAR. Seems to be all over the place on WAR>

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/c/sort/WARBR/order/true/minpa/200

[Frobby]

Try to ignore Fangraphs because their calculations are not as accurate as rWAR.

I noticed that Baseball reference and ESPN rank Wieters alot lower per War. BR has him at .08 OWAR and -.01 DWAR. ESPN has him really low on WAR. Seems to be all over the place on WAR>

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/c/sort/WARBR/order/true/minpa/200

I don't think there is a blanket answer to which version of WAR is better. The methodology for measuring a catcher's defense is significantly different than the methodology used at other positions. All I can say is this: by every conventional measure (CS%, steal attempts per inning, fielding percentage, passed balls per inning, wild pitches per inning, etc.), Wieters is at or near the top. Therefore, when fangraphs ranks him as the best defensive catcher in the AL, I find that more credible than BB-ref's determination that Wieters has had negative defensive value this year.

[calmunderfire]

I don't think there is a blanket answer to which version of WAR is better. The methodology for measuring a catcher's defense is significantly different than the methodology used at other positions. All I can say is this: by every conventional measure (CS%, steal attempts per inning, fielding percentage, passed balls per inning, wild pitches per inning, etc.), Wieters is at or near the top. Therefore, when fangraphs ranks him as the best defensive catcher in the AL, I find that more credible than BB-ref's determination that Wieters has had negative defensive value this year.

Reference WAR is 87% accurate in terms of run production. fWAR is not as accurate. Flat out.

[weams]

I don't think there is a blanket answer to which version of WAR is better. The methodology for measuring a catcher's defense is significantly different than the methodology used at other positions. All I can say is this: by every conventional measure (CS%, steal attempts per inning, fielding percentage, passed balls per inning, wild pitches per inning, etc.), Wieters is at or near the top. Therefore, when fangraphs ranks him as the best defensive catcher in the AL, I find that more credible than BB-ref's determination that Wieters has had negative defensive value this year.

Reference WAR is 87% accurate in terms of run production. fWAR is not as accurate. Flat out.

Does anyone else want to chime in on this? I must plead ignorance.

[waroriole]

Does anyone else want to chime in on this? I must plead ignorance.

I think Frobby already explained it. C defensive ratings are so different from other positions, that it's hard to assign much weight to them. However, as Frobby said, the conventional stats show that Wieters is at the top in all of them.

I think framing has a lot to do with the C rankings on one site. I'm just not sure which one.

[mark_beckens]

I haven't read everything. Just commenting on OP. Most Boras clients test FA. So this really shouldn't be a surprise.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Try to ignore Fangraphs because their calculations are not as accurate as rWAR.

Yeah, you're going o have to expand with some specifics as related to Wieters/catcher. The offensive component of fWAR is very similar to rWAR . In fact rrWAR modified it's weighted average formula to closely match fWAR several years ago.

From picking apart rWAR;s defensive components, Wieter's is being killed pretty well by the "catcher ERA" component this year taking him from average to minus 7 runs on defense. I consider that to be very misleading, if not inaccurate, particularly from a yearly evaluation basis.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I noticed that Baseball reference and ESPN rank Wieters alot lower per War. BR has him at .08 OWAR and -.01 DWAR. ESPN has him really low on WAR. Seems to be all over the place on WAR>

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/c/sort/WARBR/order/true/minpa/200

ESPN uses BR WAR (rWAR). They have the same WAR for Wieters. The oWAR and dWAR components on rWAR are not additive.