Looking at the Big Picture

[Frobby]

I've been trying to step back this fall and look at the Big Picture when it comes to the Orioles. Overall, I'm a little nervous about what I see.

The good:

Overall, we have a very nice core of position players. Our group ranked 5th in MLB in fWAR at 26.6. The team finished 4th in the AL in runs, and made the fewest errors in major league history, finishing second in the AL in UZR. Six players were nominated for Gold Gloves, three of whom won, including the Platinum Glove winner. We had three players win the Silver Slugger. Three players started the All Star Game, and a fourth made it as a reserve. We had the HR and RBI champ. The everyday lineup is good enough to be a playoff team now, when you consider offense and defense combined.

We have built an excellent team culture. These guys have each others' backs, they work hard, and they're hard nosed. They play great defense every night and make few mental errors. It's a very easy team to root for.

We have an above average group of pitching prospects. Bundy/Gausman/Harvey/EdRod is a very nice top four, and Davies/Wright/Berry are a pretty nice second tier.

The bad:

Our present major league pitching staff is not playoff caliber, in fact, it's below average. We don't have a true ace, and everyone is pitching "up" one slot at least.

The talent we have in the minors is not ready to help. As I look back on 2013, the biggest tragedy was that Bundy needed to have TJ surgery instead of completing his minor league apprenticeship. Yes, there's a good chance he bounces back to be as good as we hoped, but he's not going to impact the major league team until 2015 at the earliest. Gausman was rushed a bit last year and needs another half-year in the minors at least IMO, and the others are further away than that.

Meanwhile, our offensive core is not that young (except Machado), and not under contract for that long. Hardy and Markakis could be gone in a year, and Davis and Wieters could be gone in two. If we are able to keep them, they'll be expensive and in their 30's. We may be precluded from keeping them and acquiring significant supplemental talent. (In Markakis' case, it's not clear he will be worth keeping at any price; it depends whether he bounces back to form in 2014, and even then, he'd need to take a significant pay cut.)

We have very little offensive talent in the minors. Schoop is the only player likely to make an impact in the next two years, and he is not ready and seems to have some holes in his offensive game.

So how good is this team for 2014-15, and where does that leave us?

We won 85 games last year, and to me, that's exactly what we were and figure to be if changes aren't made. I think our pitching could be a little better in 2014 if we resigned Feldman (after all, our ERA dropped from 4.39 to 3.93 in the second half). Our bullpen could get better results and we could have a better record in one-run games. So, there's a 90ish win upside if we leave the team "as is," but there's also an 80ish win downside if the team experiences injuries to one or two of its six core offensive players, none of whom had a single DL stint in 2013.

For me, "stay the course" makes little sense, unless we are trying to mimic the 2006-10 Toronto Blue Jays, who won 87, 83, 86, 75 and 85 games. Yet, the alternative courses are also dangerous. The free agent market is pretty mediocre, and the guys who clearly would help us will be very expensive and cost a draft pick. Even the guys who won't cost picks figure to be expensive with the new TV money that teams have available to spend. Shopping Hardy, as has been suggested, is not a bad idea, but it carries its own risks, as the infield defense is the strength of this team and it's unlikely that the combo of Machado at SS and whoever at 3B is going to be as good as Hardy/Machado have been. So, Hardy would have to bring back someone who very clearly would improve the pitching for a trade to make any sense.

Overall, I don't envy Dan Duquette. He's got his work cut out for him over the next two years, with a "pretty good" team that has a relatively short window in which to win, and very little help coming from the minor leagues in the foreseeable future. He's going to have to be both smart and lucky to put this team back in the playoffs while at the same time positioning the team to remain contenders in the longer run.

[Tx Oriole]

I've been trying to step back this fall and look at the Big Picture when it comes to the Orioles. Overall, I'm a little nervous about what I see.

The good:

Overall, we have a very nice core of position players. Our group ranked 5th in MLB in fWAR at 26.6. The team finished 4th in the AL in runs, and made the fewest errors in major league history, finishing second in the AL in UZR. Six players were nominated for Gold Gloves, three of whom won, including the Platinum Glove winner. We had three players win the Silver Slugger. Three players started the All Star Game, and a fourth made it as a reserve. We had the HR and RBI champ. The everyday lineup is good enough to be a playoff team now, when you consider offense and defense combined.

We have built an excellent team culture. These guys have each others' backs, they work hard, and they're hard nosed. They play great defense every night and make few mental errors. It's a very easy team to root for.

We have an above average group of pitching prospects. Bundy/Gausman/Harvey/EdRod is a very nice top four, and Davies/Wright/Berry are a pretty nice second tier.

The bad:

Our present major league pitching staff is not playoff caliber, in fact, it's below average. We don't have a true ace, and everyone is pitching "up" one slot at least.

The talent we have in the minors is not ready to help. As I look back on 2013, the biggest tragedy was that Bundy needed to have TJ surgery instead of completing his minor league apprenticeship. Yes, there's a good chance he bounces back to be as good as we hoped, but he's not going to impact the major league team until 2015 at the earliest. Gausman was rushed a bit last year and needs another half-year in the minors at least IMO, and the others are further away than that.

Meanwhile, our offensive core is not that young (except Machado), and not under contract for that long. Hardy and Markakis could be gone in a year, and Davis and Wieters could be gone in two. If we are able to keep them, they'll be expensive and in their 30's. We may be precluded from keeping them and acquiring significant supplemental talent. (In Markakis' case, it's not clear he will be worth keeping at any price; it depends whether he bounces back to form in 2014, and even then, he'd need to take a significant pay cut.)

We have very little offensive talent in the minors. Schoop is the only player likely to make an impact in the next two years, and he is not ready and seems to have some holes in his offensive game.

So how good is this team for 2014-15, and where does that leave us?

We won 85 games last year, and to me, that's exactly what we were and figure to be if changes aren't made. I think our pitching could be a little better in 2014 if we resigned Feldman (after all, our ERA dropped from 4.39 to 3.93 in the second half). Our bullpen could get better results and we could have a better record in one-run games. So, there's a 90ish win upside if we leave the team "as is," but there's also an 80ish win downside if the team experiences injuries to one or two of its six core offensive players, none of whom had a single DL stint in 2013.

For me, "stay the course" makes little sense, unless we are trying to mimic the 2006-10 Toronto Blue Jays, who won 87, 83, 86, 75 and 85 games. Yet, the alternative courses are also dangerous. The free agent market is pretty mediocre, and the guys who clearly would help us will be very expensive and cost a draft pick. Even the guys who won't cost picks figure to be expensive with the new TV money that teams have available to spend. Shopping Hardy, as has been suggested, is not a bad idea, but it carries its own risks, as the infield defense is the strength of this team and it's unlikely that the combo of Machado at SS and whoever at 3B is going to be as good as Hardy/Machado have been. So, Hardy would have to bring back someone who very clearly would improve the pitching for a trade to make any sense.

Overall, I don't envy Dan Duquette. He's got his work cut out for him over the next two years, with a "pretty good" team that has a relatively short window in which to win, and very little help coming from the minor leagues in the foreseeable future. He's going to have to be both smart and lucky to put this team back in the playoffs while at the same time positioning the team to remain contenders in the longer run.

Good post Frobby. But I am glad DD is at the helm.

[weams]

I've been trying to step back this fall and look at the Big Picture when it comes to the Orioles. Overall, I'm a little nervous about what I see.

The good:

Overall, we have a very nice core of position players. Our group ranked 5th in MLB in fWAR at 26.6. The team finished 4th in the AL in runs, and made the fewest errors in major league history, finishing second in the AL in UZR. Six players were nominated for Gold Gloves, three of whom won, including the Platinum Glove winner. We had three players win the Silver Slugger. Three players started the All Star Game, and a fourth made it as a reserve. We had the HR and RBI champ. The everyday lineup is good enough to be a playoff team now, when you consider offense and defense combined.

We have built an excellent team culture. These guys have each others' backs, they work hard, and they're hard nosed. They play great defense every night and make few mental errors. It's a very easy team to root for.

We have an above average group of pitching prospects. Bundy/Gausman/Harvey/EdRod is a very nice top four, and Davies/Wright/Berry are a pretty nice second tier.

The bad:

Our present major league pitching staff is not playoff caliber, in fact, it's below average. We don't have a true ace, and everyone is pitching "up" one slot at least.

The talent we have in the minors is not ready to help. As I look back on 2013, the biggest tragedy was that Bundy needed to have TJ surgery instead of completing his minor league apprenticeship. Yes, there's a good chance he bounces back to be as good as we hoped, but he's not going to impact the major league team until 2015 at the earliest. Gausman was rushed a bit last year and needs another half-year in the minors at least IMO, and the others are further away than that.

Meanwhile, our offensive core is not that young (except Machado), and not under contract for that long. Hardy and Markakis could be gone in a year, and Davis and Wieters could be gone in two. If we are able to keep them, they'll be expensive and in their 30's. We may be precluded from keeping them and acquiring significant supplemental talent. (In Markakis' case, it's not clear he will be worth keeping at any price; it depends whether he bounces back to form in 2014, and even then, he'd need to take a significant pay cut.)

We have very little offensive talent in the minors. Schoop is the only player likely to make an impact in the next two years, and he is not ready and seems to have some holes in his offensive game.

So how good is this team for 2014-15, and where does that leave us?

We won 85 games last year, and to me, that's exactly what we were and figure to be if changes aren't made. I think our pitching could be a little better in 2014 if we resigned Feldman (after all, our ERA dropped from 4.39 to 3.93 in the second half). Our bullpen could get better results and we could have a better record in one-run games. So, there's a 90ish win upside if we leave the team "as is," but there's also an 80ish win downside if the team experiences injuries to one or two of its six core offensive players, none of whom had a single DL stint in 2013.

For me, "stay the course" makes little sense, unless we are trying to mimic the 2006-10 Toronto Blue Jays, who won 87, 83, 86, 75 and 85 games. Yet, the alternative courses are also dangerous. The free agent market is pretty mediocre, and the guys who clearly would help us will be very expensive and cost a draft pick. Even the guys who won't cost picks figure to be expensive with the new TV money that teams have available to spend. Shopping Hardy, as has been suggested, is not a bad idea, but it carries its own risks, as the infield defense is the strength of this team and it's unlikely that the combo of Machado at SS and whoever at 3B is going to be as good as Hardy/Machado have been. So, Hardy would have to bring back someone who very clearly would improve the pitching for a trade to make any sense.

Overall, I don't envy Dan Duquette. He's got his work cut out for him over the next two years, with a "pretty good" team that has a relatively short window in which to win, and very little help coming from the minor leagues in the foreseeable future. He's going to have to be both smart and lucky to put this team back in the playoffs while at the same time positioning the team to remain contenders in the longer run.

Nice perspective. I am on record with being anti trade J.J. He could essentially be controlled for the next two season for 21 million.

I would trade Jim Johnson if he brought a return.

I would trade Bundy if someone wanted to take a flier.

I would trade Jon Schoop if he brought a big return.

Other than that, we have no real trade chips.

ERodrodriez maybe brings back someone we need. Hard to tell. I am not looking to trade him.

[weams]

I am not a big believe in the closing window concept myself. If nothing else, Wieters, Davis, and Hardy bring back good amateur picks. And I am certain it will be more than that. In fact, if Nick does a bit better this season, we can decline his option and offer a qualifying to get back a pick. He won't retire.

I think our pitching is on a strong upward trend.

Flaherty and Jones should both be good for a long while.

I think that at the MLB level we are set better than New York and Boston.

[Frobby]

I am not a big believe in the closing window concept myself. If nothing else, Wieters, Davis, and Hardy bring back good amateur picks. And I am certain it will be more than that. In fact, if Nick does a bit better this season, we can decline his option and offer a qualifying to get back a pick. He won't retire.

I think our pitching is on a strong upward trend.

Flaherty and Jones should both be good for a long while.

I think that at the MLB level we are set better than New York and Boston.

If we make a qualifying offer to Nick, he will be an Oriole in 2015, unless he has a monster season in 2014 (which would be a nice problem to have). We won't really save any money that way, because the buyout on Nick's option is $2 mm and the qualifying offer will be at least this year's $14.1 mm, probably more. Maybe we'd save a million bucks if we were lucky.

I agree the others would bring nice packages, but we'd be out of the playoff picture for a couple of years IMO, trying to build back up for 2016 or beyond. And that might not be a bad thing to do, but are Oriole fans prepared for it?

You seems higher on the pitching and on Flaherty than I am. I have hopes in both regards, but they're hopes, not beliefs.

[BillySmith]

Kind of a neat thread. I know I lose perspective because it's just so nice to be competitive again and you think it has to be this same core to get us over the top. There will be new blood annually.

I remember when Oakland began to trade their great pitching for huge returns. We need to do some of that, albeit, as Weams points out, maybe with Wieters, Davis, Hardy, Tillman.

DD preaches building from within and maintaining a competitive team, and he's obviously all over this.

I can only imagine what will be happening at the trade deadline if we're 5 games under .500.

[weams]

If we make a qualifying offer to Nick, he will be an Oriole in 2015, unless he has a monster season in 2014 (which would be a nice problem to have). We won't really save any money that way, because the buyout on Nick's option is $2 mm and the qualifying offer will be at least this year's $14.1 mm, probably more. Maybe we'd save a million bucks if we were lucky.

I agree the others would bring nice packages, but we'd be out of the playoff picture for a couple of years IMO, trying to build back up for 2016 or beyond. And that might not be a bad thing to do, but are Oriole fans prepared for it?

You seems higher on the pitching and on Flaherty than I am. I have hopes in both regards, but they're hopes, not beliefs.

If Morales and Drew are not accepting qualifying offers, neither will Nick. He would take a 3/30 first.

[weams]

If Morales and Drew are not accepting qualifying offers, neither will Nick. He would take a 3/30 first.

Victorino was not really much better before he got the 3/39

2010	29	PHI	NL	147	648	587	84	152	26	10	18	69	34	6	53	79	.259	.327	.429	.756	101	252	6	7	0	1	5	*8	GG2011	30	PHI	NL	132	586	519	95	145	27	16	17	61	19	3	55	63	.279	.355	.491	.847	130	255	4	6	6	0	1	*8	AS,MVP-132012	31	TOT	NL	154	666	595	72	152	29	7	11	55	39	6	53	80	.255	.321	.383	.704	91	228	5	6	9	3	1	*87/9	2012	31	PHI	NL	101	431	387	46	101	17	5	9	40	24	4	35	49	.261	.324	.401	.724	94	155	4	2	5	2	1	8	2012	31	LAD	NL	53	235	208	26	51	12	2	2	15	15	2	18	31	.245	.316	.351	.667	85	73	1	4	4	1	0	7/89

2011	27	BAL	AL	160	716	641	72	182	31	1	15	73	12	3	62	75	.284	.351	.406	.756	106	260	16	7	0	6	6	*9/3D	GG2012	28	BAL	AL	104	471	420	59	125	28	3	13	54	1	1	42	51	.298	.363	.471	.834	126	198	11	4	0	5	3	9/D	2013	29	BAL	AL	160	700	634	89	172	24	0	10	59	1	2	55	76	.271	.329	.356	.685	86	226	17	3	0	8	3	*9/D	

[bobmc]

Nice analysis Frobby - thanks for sharing!

It makes me feel good that we are finally relevant but unfortunately on the outside looking in. Moose will say he's happy we are winners. cindy will B E L I V E or something.

I don't feel confident with Bundy - I want to believe but he has to show us a lot and Harvey has a long way to go. With the departure of the core sluggers and nothing in the minors to fill the void, I want Andy Mac to return to percolate a few deals?.

All in all, I support DD and Buck and hope they can squeeze the max potential out of this squad. It sure would be nice to have some money to spend - oh wait?..:cussing:

Can RZ and naysaying Can throw us a bone of positivity? :scratchchinhmm:

[weams]

Nice analysis Frobby - thanks for sharing!

It makes me feel good that we are finally relevant but unfortunately on the outside looking in. Moose will say he's happy we are winners. cindy will B E L I V E or something.

I don't feel confident with Bundy - I want to believe but he has to show us a lot and Harvey has a long way to go. With the departure of the core sluggers and nothing in the minors to fill the void, I want Andy Mac to return to percolate a few deals….

All in all, I support DD and Buck and hope they can squeeze the max potential out of this squad. It sure would be nice to have some money to spend - oh wait…..:cussing:

Can weams, RZ and naysaying Can throw us a bone of positivity? :scratchchinhmm:

Chris Tillman

Kevin Gausman

Dylan Bundy

Hunter Harvey

Wei-Yin Chen

Zach Davies

Tim Berry

Miguel Gonzalez

Jon Schoop

Mike Ohlman

Chris Walker

[bobmc]

Chris Tillman

Kevin Gausman

Dylan Bundy

Hunter Harvey

Wei-Yin Chen

Zach Davies

Tim Berry

Miguel Gonzalez

Jon Schoop

Mike Ohlman

Chris Walker

I'm hopeful but….thanks!

[weams]

I'm hopeful but….thanks!

I did not try to throw Mike Wright, T.J McFarland, Ryan Flaherty and Josh Hart at you.

[Dark Helmet]

If Morales and Drew are not accepting qualifying offers, neither will Nick. He would take a 3/30 first.

Nick is set for life money-wise. Hes comfortable in Baltimore. Hes a family man who has built a home and family in monkton. I'm not so sure he'd turn down a qualifying offer from the Orioles. Especially since it will be around 15M. I could even see Nick playing out this contract and retiring. I don't see him being too interested in playing baseball into his mid-late thirties. Jmo.

[Dark Helmet]

Nick is set for life money-wise. Hes comfortable in Baltimore. Hes a family man who has built a home and family in monkton. I'm not so sure he'd turn down a qualifying offer from the Orioles. Especially since it will be around 15M. I could even see Nick playing out this contract and retiring. I don't see him being too interested in playing baseball into his mid-late thirties. Jmo.

And I'm not saying he's gonna live here (since his offseason home is in GA). I just think he will play out where he and his family are comfortable. Then move on to being a FT family man.

[Frobby]

Victorino was not really much better before he got the 3/39

2010	29	PHI	NL	147	648	587	84	152	26	10	18	69	34	6	53	79	.259	.327	.429	.756	101	252	6	7	0	1	5	*8	GG2011	30	PHI	NL	132	586	519	95	145	27	16	17	61	19	3	55	63	.279	.355	.491	.847	130	255	4	6	6	0	1	*8	AS,MVP-132012	31	TOT	NL	154	666	595	72	152	29	7	11	55	39	6	53	80	.255	.321	.383	.704	91	228	5	6	9	3	1	*87/9	2012	31	PHI	NL	101	431	387	46	101	17	5	9	40	24	4	35	49	.261	.324	.401	.724	94	155	4	2	5	2	1	8	2012	31	LAD	NL	53	235	208	26	51	12	2	2	15	15	2	18	31	.245	.316	.351	.667	85	73	1	4	4	1	0	7/89

2011	27	BAL	AL	160	716	641	72	182	31	1	15	73	12	3	62	75	.284	.351	.406	.756	106	260	16	7	0	6	6	*9/3D	GG2012	28	BAL	AL	104	471	420	59	125	28	3	13	54	1	1	42	51	.298	.363	.471	.834	126	198	11	4	0	5	3	9/D	2013	29	BAL	AL	160	700	634	89	172	24	0	10	59	1	2	55	76	.271	.329	.356	.685	86	226	17	3	0	8	3	*9/D	

You're right, they are pretty comparable. But Nick still has 2014 to play, which will go a long way towards determining his value.

By the way, I thought he Sox were nuts to offer Victorino 3/$39 mm. It paid off pretty well in 2013; we'll see about the next two years. I'm astounded that the Mariners made a QO to Morales, and equally astounded that he didn't take it. Drew is a little less surprising to me.