Samardzija for Wieters? Roch dreaming of Samardzija throwing to Saltalamacchia for Orioles

[CA-ORIOLE]

I certainly never said that Damardzija is not very good. That is simply false.

As I have already clearly told you, more than once, my comparisons with Feldman, Burnett, and Arroyo were in regards to the Oriole's choices of either trading Bundy/Gausman for Samardzija or simply signing Feldman, Burnett, or Arroyo. Given the relative similarities between Damardzija's MLB results and those 3, it seems smarter to me - by a wide margin - to keep Bundy and Gausman and sign a Feldman/Arroyo/Burnett. I made it very clear that I am not saying Feldman et al are of equal value to Samardzija, however Feldman et al PLUS Bundy/Gausman are worth far more than Samardzija in my view.

I think maybe you have been so quick to jump on individual data points being made that you may have missed the context in which they were being made. Again, everything I have posted in this discussion has been regarding the idea of trading Bundy/Gausman for Samardzija. My saying that Samardzija's body of work statistically does not merit that type of trade value does not mean that I consider him to be without value.

I never mentioned Norris. Norris is not relevant to the discussion, as he is already an Oriole and is not a consideration for a free agent signing.

Spin it any way you want, but you've characterized him as nothing more than an mid rotation innings eater and mitigated any potential/upside based on the comparisons and poor analysis (imo) you have used throughout. That said, my apologies if you think I have taken some things out of context, but I think we just we have a basic disagreement on valuation here.

I'm not sure who you are arguing with about not trading Bundy/Gaussman, since no one is saying that, but keep up the good fight.

Please have the last word number5.

[isestrex]

If the Cubs, or you, expect any team to trade top pitching prospects for Samardzija, as if he were an ace, then I'm afraid that you will have to wait awhile, IMO. It is no different than for the Orioles to think that teams should trade for Wieters based on his off-the-charts scouting projections, as opposed to his actual OK MLB results (although Wieters is a year younger than Samardzija). Now, if you are talking about Wieters for Samardzija, that is a whole different thing altogether. That trade, on the surface, seems basically fair. The issue there is fit. As I said in my post, it is hard to see the 2 teams finding a package that makes it work. The Orioles would, logically, almost have to get Castillo back, and the Cubs have a stated desire for top pitching prospects. It seems odd to me that either team would want to shuffle one soon-to-be free agent for another, while also creating another hole to fill in their lineup. I was talking about the Cubs' stated desire of receiving top pitching prospects for Samardzija. It appeared to me that we were well past the Wieters-for-Samardzija discussion.

For you and CA-Oriole to pretend that ERA is a meaningless stat and that Samardzija's heretofore OK career should be ignored in favor of his perceived upside is a bit of a head-in-the-sand approach, IMO. ERA and ERA+ do, in fact, have meaning, especially as the sample size increases. Samardzija's results are no longer in a small sample size, and have come in the National League. Samardzija's best results have come as a reliever, which is not at all unusual. His stats as a SP are as I quoted, as shown on the link I provided. He is not an ace. He is not a near-ace. He will be 29 years old the next time he pitches. He is a free agent in 2 years. These are all very real factors that the Orioles, or any team considering trading for him, must consider. Yes, they should also weigh the possibilities of him breaking out and yet becoming an ace or near-ace, but in this discussion upside certainly favors Bundy/Gausman.

Now, when I talk about Feldman, Burnett, and Arroyo, I am speaking in terms of the Orioles meeting their need of a solid mid-rotation innings eater for 1-2 years until Gausman/Bundy are ready. It is not a 1-1 comparison. I was comparing trading Bundy/Gausman for Samardzija vs. simply signing Feldman, Burnett, or Arroyo, and keeping both Bundy and Gausman for the future. I am not talking about trading Feldman for Samardzija. Of course, in that scenario, Samardzija's potential would be an overriding factor. But, again, that is not what we are talking about. To date, Samardzija's results have, indeed, been very similar to those of Feldman, Burnett, and Arroyo, whether you and CA-Oriole choose to admit that those easily verified facts are true or not. Again, I am not saying the Cubs should trade Samardzija for a Feldman or a Burnett. I am simply stating that their actual MLB results are not dissimilar. And, really, having results similar to those guys is not necessarily a bad thing. Perhaps Samardzija, like Wieters, may yet take the next step up, but that is not, by any means, a given.

There comes a time that actual results outweigh scouting projections. Look at Matusz. Look at Britton. Samardzija has certainly outperformed both of them, but he hasn't exactly performed like Jose Fernandez or King Felix, either. He is rapidly reaching the point where seeing is believing. The proof, as they say, is in the pudding.

Thanks for the clarification and the respectable approach you took in addressing my points.

I'm afraid I completely disagree with just about everything here and I see no reason in continuing to debate. We'll just have to see how his career unfolds regardless of which team he's on.

[Dark Helmet]

Oh you want to go line by line?

I doubt the Cubs would even want Bundy.- I am sure every team in baseball would want to have Bundy in the org.

Coming off TJ, he's probably atleast two years away from even being considered a major league option.-TJ recovery is about a year and highly dependent on the rehabbing player's work ethic. Bundy sets the standard for work ethic and early reports are they have had to slow him down as he has hit every milepost early. Considering that the O's used him out of the pen in 2012 I see no reason why he couldn't be an option in 2015. Two years from Dec 2013 is 2015 so you evidently do not think he will be useful until the 2016 season.

And that's IF he pitches well after the surgery and doesn't hit any snags. So far ahead of schedule

Not to mention the years of inning limits that will follow. Your probably looking at four years before he'd be allowed to touch 200 innings. Because 170 quality innings is a problem. Four season would be the mark if a team felt a need to keep him at 30 inning increase a season, that doesn't seem likely.

And again, that's if he's effective. A lot of the shine is gone from Bundy right now. There are gobs and gobs of shine left.

I'm not saying he's never going to be great. But looking from the outside in, would we deal Tillman for a guy coming off TJ surgery?If I wasn't a contender and Tillman was two years away from FA and seemed unlikely to extend I would most certainly be interested in Bundy.

Other GMs see Bundy as damaged goods until he proves otherwise. GM's get scared off by Labrums not by TJ surgery. I am sure they would all try and buy low.

I already admitted other Gms would want Bundy, and you agreed they would try and buy low. We agree there, so not sure what your debating there.

I never said Bundy wouldn't be useful. I was saying he probably won't be allowed to reach his full potential by the team limiting his innings. Which the innings would have most likely been limited anyhow, but the surgery has probably added to that. Say its 2015 is when he's ready to go full speed. I doubt the Orioles let him go more than 170. Maybe he goes 200 in 2016. That's still 2 years before you can really expect a full workload. Assuming he has no setbacks.

[Larry18]

The knock on Samardzija is that if he can't throw his slider for strikes, he doesn't have anything else to get hitters off his fastball.

[andrewrickli]

Arrieta is simply an example of "stuff" vs. results. A clear example. Of course Samardzija has outperformed Arrieta.

Samardzija has had solid results. I have said that. He is not, however, an ace. He does not command trade value of an ace. He commands trade value of what he is. The Cubs have indicated that they seek top pitching prospects for Samardzija. I am very much against trading top pitching prospects for 2 years of Samardzija.

So you still didn't answer me. How are you comparing the two. They both have "stuff" but Samardzija has results, Arrieta doesn't.

[andrewrickli]

Maybe we could do Wieters and Norris. He'd be cheaper to extend than Samardzija for the Cubs.

[Number5]

So you still didn't answer me. How are you comparing the two. They both have "stuff" but Samardzija has results, Arrieta doesn't.

Ummmm...

Quote Originally Posted by Number5 View Post

Arrieta is simply an example of "stuff" vs. results. A clear example. Of course Samardzija has outperformed Arrieta.

Samardzija has had solid results. I have said that. He is not, however, an ace. He does not command trade value of an ace. He commands trade value of what he is. The Cubs have indicated that they seek top pitching prospects for Samardzija. I am very much against trading top pitching prospects for 2 years of Samardzija.

[andrewrickli]

Ummmm...

Quote Originally Posted by Number5 View Post

Arrieta is simply an example of "stuff" vs. results. A clear example. Of course Samardzija has outperformed Arrieta.

Samardzija has had solid results. I have said that. He is not, however, an ace. He does not command trade value of an ace. He commands trade value of what he is. The Cubs have indicated that they seek top pitching prospects for Samardzija. I am very much against trading top pitching prospects for 2 years of Samardzija.

So what happens when those top prospect you are against trading turn out to be the the next Matusz, Arrieta, or Lowen?

[SilentJames]

Something tells me the second we trade Wieters we regret it. And Samardzija is not the guy that would make me not regret it.

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[El Gordo]

Bundy and Gausman are our top pitching prospects. I wouldn't trade either one for Samardzija. I'd trade Wieters for Samardzija plus.

[Mondo Trasho]

The market for Wieters is pretty much nil right now. Maybe once people get hurt next season his value will be higher. But right now, you'll be lucky to get a middle reliever for him.

He's more valuable to us than anyone else. Just keep him until he walks.

[Number5]

So what happens when those top prospect you are against trading turn out to be the the next Matusz, Arrieta, or Lowen?

Are you really asking me asking if it is possible for a trade decision to end up looking bad using 20-20 hindsight? Come on now.

Trading Bundy or Gausman for Samardzija makes no sense. You are saying we should bank on 29-year-old Samardzija reaching his upside, yet assume that both the younger players, Bundy and Gausman, will flop. The only certainty here is that Samardzija will be a free agent in 2 years if he's not extended. And extending him will clearly not be cheap... that is the whole reason the Cubs are shopping him. This is a non-starter. It really is, Mikey.

[MrOrange82]

So what happens when those top prospect you are against trading turn out to be the the next Matusz, Arrieta, or Lowen?

You cling to their "high ceilings," "potential," "flashes of brilliance," and "hard luck" as though they're life rafts in a violent storm. And then, after several seasons, you dream up deals involving those players in which other teams offer us the deed to King Midas' mines in trade. Because, you know, the players just need a change of scenery at that point.

Obviously.

[andrewrickli]

Are you really asking me asking if it is possible for a trade decision to end up looking bad using 20-20 hindsight? Come on now.

Trading Bundy or Gausman for Samardzija makes no sense. You are saying we should bank on 29-year-old Samardzija reaching his upside, yet assume that both the younger players, Bundy and Gausman, will flop. The only certainty here is that Samardzija will be a free agent in 2 years if he's not extended. And extending him will clearly not be cheap... that is the whole reason the Cubs are shopping him. This is a non-starter. It really is, Mikey.

Right now, Samardzija is proven. Bundy and Gausman arent. What IF they don't pan out like Matusz? Instead of getting a ML legitimate piece for them, we get nothing...

We can't always hold on to our prospects, especially since we are terrible at developing pitching.

[$Greatness$]

Wieters and a 2 piece jumbo crab cakes platter for Notre Dame.