Stotle cooks up his Oriole Trade

[clapdiddy]

This is a great trade, fair all the way around. Do the Orioles have people who think as creatively as Stotle???

I would say that Duquette could probably come up with this type of trade, but I doubt that Big Pete would let him pull the trigger.

[Tryptamine]

I think the trade makes a lot more sense if the Os keep Rodriguez and the Cubs were to get Rendon. That would be more like the value I'd expect.

[Stotle]

I think the trade makes a lot more sense if the Os keep Rodriguez and the Cubs were to get Rendon. That would be more like the value I'd expect.

Samardzija had some great runs of starts, but I think we have to keep in mind that the total body of his work was middle of the road last year -- about 1-2 wins above replacement value by most measures. Comparatively, Rendon was worth 1-2 wins above replacement over just 2/3rds of the season and is cost controlled and under team control for six more years.

[hoosiers]

While the Orioles are no longer a large market team post-Nationals, they still have OPACY and MASN. They don't need to play cheap. And they don't need to alienate their fanbase.

No one here is advocating the Os to "play cheap", just to play smart.

If you are glad we kept BRob and Markakis past his 3-5 year window, I am happy for you. We got to know them (and their massive drag on the payroll) very well.

[hoosiers]

Samardzija had some great runs of starts, but I think we have to keep in mind that the total body of his work was middle of the road last year -- about 1-2 wins above replacement value by most measures. Comparatively, Rendon was worth 1-2 wins above replacement over just 2/3rds of the season and is cost controlled and under team control for six more years.

Yeah, if Rendon is going to be 2-3 WAR next year, perhaps our step back would not be so great. LaRoche and Rendon might get to 4 WAR on the own for the same cost as Davis and then we will be significantly better positioned in 2015 to re-invest the LaRoche and Markakis $.

[Tryptamine]

Samardzija had some great runs of starts, but I think we have to keep in mind that the total body of his work was middle of the road last year -- about 1-2 wins above replacement value by most measures. Comparatively, Rendon was worth 1-2 wins above replacement over just 2/3rds of the season and is cost controlled and under team control for six more years.

He had a 3.0 fWAR in 2012 and 2.8fWAR in 2013 while posting FIPs of 3.55/3.77 and xFIPs of 3.77/3.45. This doesn't even include that most teams believe he has yet to tap a lot of his potential. That's the 33rd highest fWAR over that two year stretch for qualified pitchers ahead of guys like Matt Cain and Jered Weaver. His FIP rank is 30th ahead of guys like Kuroda/Sabbathia/CJ Wilson/Dickey/Moore. His xFIP rank is 18th ahead of Gio Gonzalez/Verlander/Shields/Sabbathia etc. Let's stop acting like he's some middling pitcher because of a flawed stat like ERA.

[PeteU]

No one here is advocating the Os to "play cheap", just to play smart.

If you are glad we kept BRob and Markakis past his 3-5 year window, I am happy for you. We got to know them (and their massive drag on the payroll) very well.

But I don't think trading away a 27 year old guy fully capable of a 30 HR/100 RBI season for the next 5 seasons is necessarily smart. If he was 33 and coming off the same year that he had, it's a whole other story.

Everyone wants to talk about the Bedard trade that happened. Nobody wants to talk about the Jones for Jurrjens and Prado rumored deal that didn't happen, even though we had people here at the time who said they would more than gladly pull the trigger on that one.

[weams]

But I don't think trading away a 27 year old guy fully capable of a 30 HR/100 RBI season for the next 5 seasons is necessarily smart. If he was 33 and coming off the same year that he had, it's a whole other story.

Everyone wants to talk about the Bedard trade that happened. Nobody wants to talk about the Jones for Jurrjens and Prado rumored deal that didn't happen, even though we had people here at the time who said they would more than gladly pull the trigger on that one.

I think the issue at stake is that it is two years and not five that we would be trading. In two years, we could bid for his services. Just like everyone else. I am not in favor of trading him BTW.

[Stotle]

He had a 3.0 fWAR in 2012 and 2.8fWAR in 2013 while posting FIPs of 3.55/3.77 and xFIPs of 3.77/3.45. This doesn't even include that most teams believe he has yet to tap a lot of his potential. That's the 33rd highest fWAR over that two year stretch for qualified pitchers ahead of guys like Matt Cain and Jered Weaver. His FIP rank is 30th ahead of guys like Kuroda/Sabbathia/CJ Wilson/Dickey/Moore. His xFIP rank is 18th ahead of Gio Gonzalez/Verlander/Shields/Sabbathia etc. Let's stop acting like he's some middling pitcher because of a flawed stat like ERA.

Apologies -- I was looking at projected WAR on Fangraphs, which interestingly doesn't have him higher than 2.1 over the next five years. Conversely, Rendon projects to 3.2 to 3.5 wins each year during that span.

I'm not basing valuation on ERA. I'm basing it production and industry thoughts on player projection. There is a disconnect between the stuff and the production. Most view that as a #2/#4 midrotation guy that is going to bounce back and forth from start to start as far as performance. Mid-rotation is the common refrain.

As I noted, it could be that the market for Samardzija is so great that the bidding will quickly escalate past the suggested Cole/Rodriguez package. For the most part, however, a Top 50 and Top 100 overall prospect seems to be viewed as a reasonable return, and evaluators might even place both Cole and Rodriguez in the Top 50 prospects.

It's all in fun, and just meant to stimulate conversation. It has, so I'm grateful.

[Tryptamine]

Apologies -- I was looking at projected WAR on Fangraphs, which interestingly doesn't have him higher than 2.1 over the next five years. Conversely, Rendon projects to 3.2 to 3.5 wins each year during that span.

I'm not basing valuation on ERA. I'm basing it production and industry thoughts on player projection. There is a disconnect between the stuff and the production. Most view that as a #2/#4 midrotation guy that is going to bounce back and forth from start to start as far as performance. Mid-rotation is the common refrain.

As I noted, it could be that the market for Samardzija is so great that the bidding will quickly escalate past the suggested Cole/Rodriguez package. For the most part, however, a Top 50 and Top 100 overall prospect seems to be viewed as a reasonable return, and evaluators might even place both Cole and Rodriguez in the Top 50 prospects.

It's all in fun, and just meant to stimulate conversation. It has, so I'm grateful.

No I get it and quite frankly it's nice to have something to talk about as this has been a terribly boring off season for my Cubs.

[Whammer]

But I don't think trading away a 27 year old guy fully capable of a 30 HR/100 RBI season for the next 5 seasons is necessarily smart.

Stroll down memory lane: In 2009, Nolan Reimold was a 25 Y.O. rookie who finished with a .279 BA to go along with 15 HRs in 104 games. At the time, he appeared to be fully capable of 30 HR/100 RBI seasons for years to come. The rest is history.

Granted, it's easy to look back now and say the O's should have sold high when they could with this guy. As far as Davis is concerned, his value is potentially at its peak now. If I could swing him and get another Bundy/Gausman type prospect in return, I'd do it in 2 seconds.

[Tryptamine]

To be honest you could probably move him to Pitt in a deal for Taillon+Polanco+Glasnow. That would restock the farm real real fast.

[PeteU]

I think the issue at stake is that it is two years and not five that we would be trading. In two years, we could bid for his services. Just like everyone else. I am not in favor of trading him BTW.

Understood. But if the thought is that we need to trade now (as opposed to next off-season) because his "value is at his peak," the payoff has to be huge. Either a Top 5 overall prospect or a proven all-star at the top of his game who meets our needs. None of the names mentioned fit that category. All of them carry big question marks after their names. And no throwing Eduardo Rodriguez into the package, either.

[PeteU]

Stroll down memory lane: In 2009, Nolan Reimold was a 25 Y.O. rookie who finished with a .279 BA to go along with 15 HRs in 104 games. At the time, he appeared to be fully capable of 30 HR/100 RBI seasons for years to come. The rest is history.

Granted, it's easy to look back now and say the O's should have sold high when they could with this guy. As far as Davis is concerned, his value is potentially at its peak now. If I could swing him and get another Bundy/Gausman type prospect in return, I'd do it in 2 seconds.

Difference is, Reimhold had potential. Davis has a track record. And not just last year but from 2012 as well. As far as I'm concerned, 2013 was the year to see if Davis was a fluke, not 2014.

[weams]

You could get Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker plus Smoak or Ackley. I think.