Stotle cooks up his Oriole Trade

[skanar]

But you are then telling me that we are the Astros next season right?

Basically, yes. Not that bad, actually, since they had near-zero MLB caliber players on the 25-man at one point and the O's would be dressing Urrutia, Jones, Machado, Flaherty, Tillman, Gonzalez, Markakis and some bullpen pitchers. Maybe a 65 win team (Astros were 51-111), if you have nothing but AAAA guys for the rest - which you shouldn't. Sign a bunch of $1M bounceback vets, hope you get one 2013 Francisco Liriano or 2013 Francisco Rodriguez out of them and trade him at the deadline.

I'm not advocating this position; I think the O's should contend 2014 and 2015 within limits. But I'd prefer it to Stotle's field-a-competitive-team-while-rebuilding approach (which in fairness is not what he advocates, either, just what he thinks might be semirealistic given ownership, fanbase, etc.). If we trade Davis, I think we should be going all-in on a rebuild.

[PeteU]

Chris Davis could "slip" next year, and still be extremely capable of providing us 30 homeruns and 100 RBIs.

Him and EdRod?

No, no, no, no, no.

[Tryptamine]

Olt was in the middle of a really, really bad season, with evaluators questioning the hit tool and pitch ID against advanced arms. Grimm projected as a reliever or back-end arm. Edwards had yet to reach full season ball.

I think you may need to reconfigure your valuations when taking into account upside and proximity. On the other hand, maybe I'm just way off in my valuations.

Edwards was in full season ball all year last year. He pitched 91 innings in A ball Sally league and then was traded to the Cubs and promoted to A+ Daytona. He was also a mid season top 100 guy ranked right around 70 if I remember correctly. You're also forgetting Neil Ramirez who was the Cubs PTBNL.

[Stotle]

Edwards was in full season ball all year last year. He pitched 91 innings in A ball Sally league and then was traded to the Cubs and promoted to A+ Daytona. He was also a mid season top 100 guy ranked right around 70 if I remember correctly. You're also forgetting Neil Ramirez who was the Cubs PTBNL.

You are correct regarding Edwards -- I forgot he started in LoA. W/R/T Ramirez, I guess we can quibble over a PTBNL. The article addressed this with the proviso that tweaks would need to be made. I don't think a 24 year old in Double A would hold anything up if the Cubs really wanted that.

Proximity argument still applies vis-a-vie Edwards/Cole, as does reliever/starter projection considerations. Garza considerations include leverage due to playoff push, track record, present performance, etc. all favoring Garza. Extra control time certainly matters for Shark. As I said, maybe I'm way off. Cubs fans have generally (surprisingly?) responded very positively to the article. Shrug.

[DrungoHazewood]

Really creative and a great solution to the restrictions Stotle set for himself. I'm impressed (and must spread rep, etc etc). I think the Nationals do the best out of this deal, but it's not awful for any of the three, which is in and of itself quite an achievement.

I think if the Orioles are going to decide to build for the future, they should actually go for it. Trade Davis, Wieters, Hardy, and Chen all for prospects, ideally AA or AAA guys who will be in line to play and be good in 2016. Don't get just-ok MLB players like LaRoche or Samardzija. Hope Markakis rebounds and can be dealt at the deadline for something. See if someone will overpay for decent relievers like O'Day or Hunter.

Ideally, get Adam Jones on board first. Then the 2016 core is

C {empty} - Ohlman?

3B {empty}

SS Machado

2B Schoop

1B {empty}

LF Urrutia or other

CF Jones

RF Alvarez or other

With a rotation of Tillman-Gonzalez-Bundy-Gausman-Rodriguez and whoever else is traded for. Bullpen would probably turn over completely, but might involve Mike Wright, Belfiore, Patton, and Steve Johnson.

Of course, this won't happen in a million years. Also, it would mean admitting that this year's midseason trades were a massive mistake, since adding Hader, Delmonico, and a draft pick would improve the future outlook significantly.

I don't get the idea that you either have to make a big splash or go into total rebuild mode. I would MUCH rather add pieces and continually retool than ever have a firesale.

I've said it before: sports is supposed to be fun. I'd never punt a season or three (or 14).

[Tryptamine]

You are correct regarding Edwards -- I forgot he started in LoA. W/R/T Ramirez, I guess we can quibble over a PTBNL. The article addressed this with the proviso that tweaks would need to be made. I don't think a 24 year old in Double A would hold anything up if the Cubs really wanted that.

Proximity argument still applies vis-a-vie Edwards/Cole, as does reliever/starter projection considerations. Garza considerations include leverage due to playoff push, track record, present performance, etc. all favoring Garza. Extra control time certainly matters for Shark. As I said, maybe I'm way off. Cubs fans have generally (surprisingly?) responded very positively to the article. Shrug.

Garza also wasn't eligible to get you an extra draft pick while Samardzija is. Samardzija is also cheaper and under control for 4x as long. As far as Cubs fans have responded positively, where have you posted it? I've yet to have anyone think this was a good deal.

[JayThomas]

I'm seeing this as something like:

ERod for Rendon

Davis for Smardy and LaRoche and prospects

I too would prefer the Hoosiers/Stotle longer range trade. Plug in Rendon and spend a little money elsewhere to get a starter. Don't take too much of a hit next year and have pitching depth to trade for a bat a year or two out.

[Stotle]

Garza also wasn't eligible to get you an extra draft pick while Samardzija is. Samardzija is also cheaper and under control for 4x as long. As far as Cubs fans have responded positively, where have you posted it? I've yet to have anyone think this was a good deal.

It was part of an article published at Baseball Prospectus and has widely circulated across Twitter. I'm cool with you not liking it, though. Was a fun exercise either way.

Re: Qualifying offers, it certainly assumes Shark will be worth a qualifying offer. May or may not be the case. I do not know.

[PeteU]

I don't get the idea that you either have to make a big splash or go into total rebuild mode. I would MUCH rather add pieces and continually retool than ever have a firesale.

I've said it before: sports is supposed to be fun. I'd never punt a season or three (or 14).

Ask Marlins fans how fun fire sales are.

2 years of ecstasy mixed in with about 15 years of pure and utter soul sucking misery.

I think the tradeapoolza craze is an offshoot of the fantasy sports mindset that has become way too prevalent in today's sports world.

Reality is, we deal Chris Davis this offseason, we are talking massive fan revolt. The past two years of goodwill will be erased instantaneously.

[clapdiddy]

I don't get the idea that you either have to make a big splash or go into total rebuild mode. I would MUCH rather add pieces and continually retool than ever have a firesale.

I've said it before: sports is supposed to be fun. I'd never punt a season or three (or 14).

Agree with all this. I'm not sure that with Stotle's deal we'd actually be "punting" 2014. Rendon would have to stay healthy and Samardzjia would have to be productive, but I think the team would still be competitive if they get another stick for the middle of the lineup.

[DrungoHazewood]

Ask Marlins fans how fun fire sales are.

2 years of ecstasy mixed in with about 15 years of pure and utter soul sucking misery.

There are some people (read: SportsGuy) who claim any season without playoffs is soul sucking misery. So 85 wins is exactly the same as 55.

[hoosiers]

I think the tradeapoolza craze is an offshoot of the fantasy sports mindset that has become way too prevalent in today's sports world.

No, the tradeapoolza craze works very well for Tampa and for Oakland (and for Minn to a lesser extent before that).

The fans want a winner - not goodwill.

If Tampa can trade Garza and Shields, if Oakland can deal Mulder and Hudson and Haren, if Minn can deal Santana, the Os can trade Chris Davis and survive.

[weams]

Basically, yes. Not that bad, actually, since they had near-zero MLB caliber players on the 25-man at one point and the O's would be dressing Urrutia, Jones, Machado, Flaherty, Tillman, Gonzalez, Markakis and some bullpen pitchers. Maybe a 65 win team (Astros were 51-111), if you have nothing but AAAA guys for the rest - which you shouldn't. Sign a bunch of $1M bounceback vets, hope you get one 2013 Francisco Liriano or 2013 Francisco Rodriguez out of them and trade him at the deadline.

I'm not advocating this position; I think the O's should contend 2014 and 2015 within limits. But I'd prefer it to Stotle's field-a-competitive-team-while-rebuilding approach (which in fairness is not what he advocates, either, just what he thinks might be semirealistic given ownership, fanbase, etc.). If we trade Davis, I think we should be going all-in on a rebuild.

On an if, I 'm with you.

[Oldorioles]

This is a great trade, fair all the way around. Do the Orioles have people who think as creatively as Stotle???

[PeteU]

No, the tradeapoolza craze works very well for Tampa and for Oakland (and for Minn to a lesser extent before that).

The fans want a winner - not goodwill.

If Tampa can trade Garza and Shields, if Oakland can deal Mulder and Hudson and Haren, if Minn can deal Santana, the Os can trade Chris Davis and survive.

Just because it has worked for the Rays and A's doesn't mean we have to follow their lead.

Oakland and Tampa Bay also happen to play in the two least revenue producing ballparks in the league. They do tradeapalooza because they have to as a matter of survival. But it sucks in terms of growing the fanbase if you can only enjoy your favorite players for a 3-5 year window, as if you are following a college sports teams.

While the Orioles are no longer a large market team post-Nationals, they still have OPACY and MASN. They don't need to play cheap. And they don't need to alienate their fanbase.