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Ubaldo Jimenez is Consistent

Old#5fan

By Old#5fan
in Orioles Talk

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LookitsPuck Hangout Grand Counsel

LookitsPuck

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I'm all for hope. Hope is more fun than cold, feelingless logic. :)

I think the best of both worlds is logic and hope. :)

I think it's more logical to use the following as a baseline:

- He started spring training later than others

- His mechanics are notorious for being out of whack

- He's in a new organization, with a new pitching coach, and a new manager...oh and a new catcher.

- He's typically a very slow starter (career wise, I broke down his month by month)

- Last year he had an ERA above 7.00 in April. We all know how good his stats were at the end of the year

I've seen some very good flashes from him. Am I worried? Ever so slightly, but not enough to think he's a bust.

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DrinkinWithFermi All-Star

DrinkinWithFermi

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Cmon, I don't wish an actual injury on anyone, but we all know that often times DL moves are made for "questionable" injuries.

Based on the post in question and the other various posts you've made in this thread, I find little reason to put any stock in your "clarification." In fact, you almost seem to be actively rooting for him to fail so you can run around here yelling "told ya so!"

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JayThomas All-Star

JayThomas

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Right. WCS is O's get 2012 Ubaldo this year, which is arguably the only year the Orioles really NEED the front-end to mid-rotation production. If you believe Eduardo Rodriguez, Dylan Bundy, and Kevin Gausman are major league starters, you have three baseline number fours there. It always seemed like a "hey he's available and there's upside" kind of move. If you are drawing up a plan for the offseason based on 25-man and org needs, you don't give Jimenez that contract.

I disagree, but only based on upside, not on median projection. If Ubaldo pitches close to his upside for this length of this contract it will be a great, great move. The price of a free-market #2 pitcher in 3 more years will be way over $12.5M. That will look like a steal.

The rub is, will Ubaldo deliver closer to his upside or his median? If the former, he will be a great value to us amidst Gausman, Bundy, Rodriguez, ?. If he only delivers to his median, then (obviously) not-so-much.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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I disagree, but only based on upside, not on median projection. If Ubaldo pitches close to his upside for this length of this contract it will be a great, great move. The price of a free-market #2 pitcher in 3 more years will be way over $12.5M. That will look like a steal.

The rub is, will Ubaldo deliver closer to his upside or his median? If the former, he will be a great value to us amidst Gausman, Bundy, Rodriguez, ?. If he only delivers to his median, then (obviously) not-so-much.

The problem I have with that way of thinking is that it doesn't (in my opinion) properly incorporate risk percentiles. It also doesn't contemplate the chance that his performance will be below his median performance, and the odds may be better that he underperforms than they are that he overperforms.

So you could have something like

#1 Starter - 5%

#2 Starter - 10%

#3 Starter - 20 %

#4 Starter - 45%

#5 Starer - 15%

Injury/Ineffective - 5%

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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I think the best of both worlds is logic and hope. :)

I think it's more logical to use the following as a baseline:

- He started spring training later than others

- His mechanics are notorious for being out of whack

- He's in a new organization, with a new pitching coach, and a new manager...oh and a new catcher.

- He's typically a very slow starter (career wise, I broke down his month by month)

- Last year he had an ERA above 7.00 in April. We all know how good his stats were at the end of the year

I've seen some very good flashes from him. Am I worried? Ever so slightly, but not enough to think he's a bust.

I don't think it makes any sense to call him a bust at this point. I'm all for looking for reasons to be optimistic. I am not a fan of the contract, but I hope it works out and I hope the positive folks are right.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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So, what's your prognosis on Ubaldo?

I think he is what he is. Too inconsistent mechanically to be depended upon for a long stretch. Effective when everything is working. Aging and likely, over four years, to see more bad than good as his stuff diminishes. Slight increase in chance of injury given age/mechanics. When he's hittable he is VERY hittable, making Camden a tough home field for him. Average production of a #4 starter over the course of the contract most likely outcome.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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I think he is what he is. Too inconsistent mechanically to be depended upon for a long stretch. Effective when everything is working. Aging and likely, over four years, to see more bad than good as his stuff diminishes. Slight increase in chance of injury given age/mechanics. When he's hittable he is VERY hittable, making Camden a tough home field for him. Average production of a #4 starter over the course of the contract most likely outcome.

Thanks. Sounds very reasonable. Hopefully he will be better. Particularly the first 2 years.

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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FWIW...

Arroyo has been worse thus far than Jimenez. Through 3 starts:

Jimenez

0-3, 7.31 ERA, 6.74 FIP, 16.0 IP, 5.6 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 55 ERA+

Arroyo

1-1, 9.95 ERA, 7.40 FIP, 12.2 IP, 2.8 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 40 ERA+

Rotoworld had this gem:

Bronson Arroyo was lit up by the Mets for nine runs on 10 hits over 3 1/3 innings of a 9-0 loss on Tuesday.

Advice: He threw 64 batting practice pitches, basically. It's bad enough that GM Kevin Towers is already feeling buyer's remorse three starts into Arroyo's Arizona career without considering that the rest of the rotation has done their best pitching machine impersonations thus far as well. Arroyo now owns a 9.95 ERA, while the Snakes staff as a whole has posted a 7.71 ERA. This is why Arizona is 4-13 overall, and 1-10 at the launching pad known as Chase Field. This Diamondbacks squad is taking on water, and it'll be interesting to see how Towers decides to go about draining the hull. Either way, even against the Cubs, you want nothing to do with Arroyo even in an All-Bronson league next time out. Make him prove it first.

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Old#5fan Hangout Grand Counsel

Old#5fan

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Based on the post in question and the other various posts you've made in this thread, I find little reason to put any stock in your "clarification." In fact, you almost seem to be actively rooting for him to fail so you can run around here yelling "told ya so!"

Your last statement is so blatently false, I was going to just ignore it, but if you really believe that you are insane. No fan of any team would ever root for any of their players to "fail." To accuse me of that shows you are not playing with a full deck.

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