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By Sports Guy · Posted
And that precisely the wrong thing to do. You don’t get fooled by one year at the historical peak age of 27. Mounty hits the ball hard and that likely isn’t going away anytime soon. However, he has never been worth over 1.7 fWAR and while that’s fine when he isn’t making money, it’s not that great when he is. Let someone else think he’s going to be worth that money. This is precisely what I have been talking about. Middling contracts rarely pay off. -
By Sports Guy · Posted
It’s a fair criticism. They have overpaid and over drafted a lot of for a lot of college hitters. And as Tony said, they have gone after some guys who have issues that they think they can fix (can add Haskin to that list) Think about the money spent on some guys. Haskin got 1.9M. Players drafted after him include Jared Jones, Evan Carter, Mason Wynn. Servideo was an overslept guy who got 950K. Kyle Harrison was drafted after him. 2021 draft, the Os elected to save money with Cowser and not take Lawlar, who was the better talent and has been rated higher throughout their MiL careers, with Lawlar being a top 10 guy on many lists. But getting past that, Norby was a good second pick and most felt that way at the time. But after that, Reed Trimble, John Rhodes, Donta Williams and Collin Burns. Tavera was an ok pick but he’s nothing special either. They didn’t go after some good arms that were drafted later. Guys like Mason Miller, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller. The Os used their “Savings” on Cowser on Creed Willems and went 500k over on Rhodes. They also went over slot on Burnes, Pavolony and Craig. All of them are misses although maybe Willems has some potential or some team may be intrigued by his power to want him as a 3rd piece in a trade. 2022 brought us Holliday and Beavers with the first 2 picks. They failed to sign McClean who is getting talked about a lot. Fabian still could be a guy that makes the roster and Bright has some potential upside as a reliever. 2023 is early but it has a 2021 feel to me. Seems like they have done a good job addressing the first 2 picks but very shaky after and while I agree it’s a crap shoot, I have said many times that I feel they are targeting the wrong types of guys. The system really starts to thin out once Basallo, Mayo, Holliday and Kjerstad graduate. The Os will have an abundance of talent on the ML roster once that happens but you will need that next wave. Where is the system going to be in 2-3 years? I’m guessing how well the Intl guys develop will determine this. We don’t know what Rubenstein is going to do with the payroll but we know Elias isn’t going to sign big FA deals. Will he sign middling contracts? Maybe..unfortunately. But we should be building the pen and the bench largely through the system. It’s a poor use of money to spend on those areas. I feel like the team has to start drafting power arms on a more frequent basis and they need to stop targeting so many college OFers that look destined to be organizational players from the moment you draft them. People get so wrapped up in the draft savings for the first pick and “that’s why we got Mayo” but that’s flat out wrong. There are plenty of ways to get overslot guys in the draft. -
By Orioles0615 · Posted
Or they could call a real deserving prospect up -
I don’t think anyone expects anything of the sort. You only have so many assets both for the team and to use as trade chips. They’re finite. You have to keep finding more assets to keep the wheel spinning. We are in a great spot now because we drafted players who became top prospects. To maintain that great spot, 3,4,5 years going forward we need to continue to find those types of players. The Latin program, hopefully will provide some. We still need to find Jordan Westburgs, Joey Ortiz’s, and Coby Mayos in the draft. -
The season’s not over, for either for them. It’s not over for our younger players either. 103 games to play, and probably a postseason. Plenty of time for the situation to look quite different than it does today. Hopefully, better and better on all fronts. At the moment, Mountcastle’s not even a close case. He’s carrying a 142 OPS+, on pace for a 4.9 rWAR, 3.3 fWAR season. If he ended up in that ballpark (by no means a sure thing), it’s a no brainer to keep him at the $8 mm or so he’d make next year. Hays obviously will be a much tougher case, given out OF alternatives. But he’s got a .926 OPS since coming off the IL, and I’m expecting his final numbers won’t look even remotely like his current ones. Whether they’ll be good enough to justify keeping him at maybe $9-10 mm, I’m skeptical, but we’ll see. -
By Safelykept · Posted
This is definitely tough, someone is going to have to get traded they dont have enough room to play all these guys at first. Yes the young guys are cheaper but worth more in trade. If you trade one of the young guys and you go forward RM are you getting into territory of maybe buying out his first couple of years of FA. Hes having that kind of year. -
By DrungoHazewood · Posted
Actually, that's exactly what it's meant for, to compare value across different types of players and different types of contributions. It's to put everything, hits, homers, steals, fielding, pitching, on the common baseline of wins. Tom Tango and Rally and the others who developed WAR specifically were doing it (or at least one of the main goals was) to help determine value for contracts. I have had conversations with them on this very topic. See posts #236 and 240 here.
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