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Flash Era Coming to an End?

Shabadoo25

By Shabadoo25
in Orioles Talk

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Yeah, other than Zobrist's value is probably understated by WAR, I'm not really following Corn's Zobrist/Flaherty comparison.

They were both a bit old (25) and struggled offensively (48 OPS+ and 66 OPS+), while being versatile on defense. (of course Zobrist was SS only his rookie year)

I think I remember reading folks wishing and hoping that Zobrist was Flaherty's ceiling.

Of course a career arc like Zobrist's happens once a generation.

I prefer comparing him to his predecessor in the role, Andino.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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They were both a bit old (25) and struggled offensively (48 OPS+ and 66 OPS+), while being versatile on defense. (of course Zobrist was SS only his rookie year)

I think I remember reading folks wishing and hoping that Zobrist was Flaherty's ceiling.

Of course a career arc like Zobrist's happens once a generation.

I prefer comparing him to his predecessor in the role, Andino.

Zobrist has been an MVP caliber player. I can't imagine any "reputable" poster on here making that type of comparison.

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MrOrange82 Hangout Grand Counsel

MrOrange82

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Zobrist has been an MVP caliber player. I can't imagine any "reputable" poster on here making that type of comparison.

It's more about citing limited hot streaks (e.g., that great June) and saying "if he gets regular ABs, he could [do XYZ]."

With the ultimate point being...maybe Flaherty isn't a .180 hitter, but he's also not the hitter who's shown up in occasional (ahem) flashes. He's not a starter. He's not a mid-700's-OPS hitter. He's not an established super-utility guy who can play every defensive position well just because he's been stationed in various places every now and again.

He is what he is...and what he has been. Right around replacement level.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Zobrist has been an MVP caliber player. I can't imagine any "reputable" poster on here making that type of comparison.

I don't know about reputable, but here is Gordo:

If Flaherty didn't have good defensive potential Buck wouldn't be slotting him everywhere including #3C with confidence. You could put Flaherty at any one of the 6 posiitions he plays for a full season and he would develop into a solid defender there. He has a very fluid, atheletic ,and good range. He could become a Zobrist type guy if he can improve wiyth the bat.

A tempered comparison:

Some of this depends on what you make of his atrocious April and May. He did very well in June, then went back to the minors after Roberts returned, and then did OK in a part time role.

June .297/.333/.486/.820 4 HR

July Mostly in the minors

Aug .250/.325/.472/.797 2 HR

Sept .269/.387/.615/1.002 2 HR

Total 119 ABs.

Of course that was mostly against RHPs. Still, there is some reason to think his ceiling might be higher than his 2013 numbers. I'd say .240/.300/.420/.720 would be a pretty safe projection, with a ceiling of .275/.330/.450/.780. Also keep in mind, this guy was a 1st round draft pick for the Cubs. The ceiling numbers would make him arguably a poor man's Ben Zobrist--capable of plus defense at multiple IF and OF positions. As long as we have him under team control for $500k per year, I would much rather have Flaherty than BRob for $3 million a year.

You actually show up as part of this conversation...

You could add Ben Zobrist to that list.

Age 25 198 PA .572 OPS

Age 26 105 PA .391 OPS

and then

Age 27 227 PA .844 OPS

I'm not suggesting Flash will be the next Zobrist, but his ability to play all over the field and his power are similar. If his career were to take a similar trajectory, he'd be a nugget.

Hence why my fingers are crossed. Its just good to see a guy be able to play all over the field and (while it hasn't been reached) the potential in his bat is enticing. I doubt he can have the offensive value of Zobrist but players unexpectedly turn corners all the time (see: Davis, Chris) so a guy can hope, right? Also, not that it means much but Flaherty's major league stats look better than Zobrist's through age 26 (they both came into the majors at 25).
I'm crossing my fingers the Orioles have found their own Ben Zobrist
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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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I said "wishing and hoping" and ceiling.

This place gets a bit crazy when a fan favorite hits a hot streak.

Well, "wish and hope" are sometimes stretched I suppose. Flaherty replicating last years production would be fine imo. I think a lot of us thought he had some chance to improve on last year, even if marginally. The Baltimore Orioles staff apparently.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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It's more about citing limited hot streaks (e.g., that great June) and saying "if he gets regular ABs, he could [do XYZ]."

With the ultimate point being...maybe Flaherty isn't a .180 hitter, but he's also not the hitter who's shown up in occasional (ahem) flashes. He's not a starter. He's not a mid-700's-OPS hitter. He's not an established super-utility guy who can play every defensive position well just because he's been stationed in various places every now and again.

He is what he is...and what he has been. Right around replacement level.

At bats are at bats. I don't get into he was streaky or hot etc. He was clearly above replacement level last year when he had regular/semi-regular play at second base. He is not hitting well this year so far. That is a fact.

Flaherty looks adequate at both third and shortstop to me. Above average at second. He is not Machado or Hardy, but I don't worry too much that average plays are going to be made by him at those positions.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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In 2012 from April 7-June 2 Flash hit 175 .204 .379 in 59 PA

From June 4 -July 25 .258 .303 .403 .706 in 68 PA

From August 1 - Oct 3 .243 .300 .514 .814 in 40 PA

In 2012 playoffs .273 .273 .545 .818 11 PA

In 2103 from April 4th - May 31 .150 .234 .250 .484 in 112 PA

From June 1 -July 13 .300 .333 .475 .808 in 84 PA

From July 22 -Sept 29 .242 .333 .500 .833 in 75 PA So for two stretches early in the season totaling 171 PA he was a sub .500 OPS hitter. Then for one stretch of 68 PA in 2012 he was a .700 OPS guy

and for 211 PA late in 2012 and late in 2013 he was an .800 OPS hitter. So which is he? A guy who can't hit and never will, or a guy who might have the potential to be a .700+ OPS hitter, not bad for a middle IF?

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24fps Hangout Grand Counsel

24fps

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In 2012 from April 7-June 2 Flash hit 175 .204 .379 in 59 PA

From June 4 -July 25 .258 .303 .403 .706 in 68 PA

From August 1 - Oct 3 .243 .300 .514 .814 in 40 PA

In 2012 playoffs .273 .273 .545 .818 11 PA

In 2103 from April 4th - May 31 .150 .234 .250 .484 in 112 PA

From June 1 -July 13 .300 .333 .475 .808 in 84 PA

From July 22 -Sept 29 .242 .333 .500 .833 in 75 PA So for two stretches early in the season totaling 171 PA he was a sub .500 OPS hitter. Then for one stretch of 68 PA in 2012 he was a .700 OPS guy

and for 211 PA late in 2012 and late in 2013 he was an .800 OPS hitter. So which is he? A guy who can't hit and never will, or a guy who might have the potential to be a .700+ OPS hitter, not bad for a middle IF?

Perhaps he is someone with 500+ PA's over a two year period who has not proven to be sufficiently compelling a talent to warrant any further investment beyond that which expediency dictates.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Perhaps he is someone with 500+ PA's over a two year period who has not proven to be sufficiently compelling a talent to warrant any further investment beyond that which expediency dictates.
Considering it takes about 1500 PA to tell what kind of hitter someone is, perhaps that's premature. Especially for someone who is a versatile UTIF.
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24fps Hangout Grand Counsel

24fps

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Considering it takes about 1500 PA to tell what kind of hitter someone is, perhaps that's premature. Especially for someone who is a versatile UTIF.

That would be roughly 2017 or 2018 at Flaherty's current rate. If it were up to me, I'll risk being premature.

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