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Curious to see how much time 53 homers buys


Moose Milligan

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Great question. Billy hesitated to broach the subject fearing the wrath of Davis supporters. Starting to think last year was a fluke. How many homeruns to salvage his year? 25?

I think that is realistic. I'd be okay with 20. At this rate, we're 25% through the year or so and he's on pace to hit 8.

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I think that is realistic. I'd be okay with 20. At this rate, we're 25% through the year or so and he's on pace to hit 8.

8 might do it also if it turns out later that he has been nursing the oblique....and Buck did not want to reveal. :scratchchinhmm:

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I'm starting to think it was a fluke year like Brady's. Sure hope I'm dead wrong!

I thought it seemed pretty clear it was a fluke when considering just how insanely dominate he was at the plate last year. I think Davis is a great offensive player...upper .800 OPS, maybe touch .900 OPS but definitely not a consistent 1.000+ OPS guy. I think it was time to trade him after last year but I understand why they didn't.

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I have to give OH'ers a lot of credit for their continued patience on Davis. The old oblique routine doesn't fly too well with me. He is taking some mighty swings and misses without any note of discomfort. His head is flying out and at the present shows zero signs of being near what he was for the first half of last year. For all the love he gets for his OBP he is still a major disappointment. Pitchers are still pitching around him for no apparent reason. When they don't fear him anymore let's see what happens to his OBP. But if people are content with a first baseman, on pace for less that 10 HR's so be it. I hope he turns it around and I'll be patient, but skeptical at the same time.

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He's probably gotten into some bad habits trying to compensate for the oblique. I think he has enough of a track record that we can be confident he'll get out of this and get back closer to what he was last year or at least two years ago at some point but no one can say when. It might be a good idea to try to extend him after a down year like this appears it will be. Might look like a discount 2 or 3 years down the line.

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I see him uppercutting every swing. When you do that, your bat only has a split fraction of a second to make contact with the ball. Once he levels his swing out, he'll be okay. Not last season okay, but 2012 okay.

That said, the longer he slumps, the lower his contract gets. That $200 or $150 million contract that he and Boras were looking for is not gonna happen for a guy who has had two great years but otherwise not much history of success.

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Also keep in mind CD's second half 2013 split. He was only .245/.339/.515, 16 HR, 45 RBI. His first half was just insane (.315/.392/.717, 37 HR, 93 RBI) and really accounted for the majority of his stats overall. The second half stats would be acceptable but not great for an MLB 1B over the course of a season. I think what we are seeing is a combination of regression and injury. The two together are a double whammy. We would definitely be lucky to see 25 HR even if CD is healthy, which he does not appear to be.

That said, Chris was killing it in the spring and at least started the year hitting well over .300 with a high OBP. I do think he will bounce back when healthy, but who knows when that will be.

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