Orioles will be watching Ian Kennedy tonight.

[Guest]

7 innings 3 hits 0 Runs 4BB 6 K's 100 pitches. He was hitting 93 to 95 mph in the 7th inning.

[Baltoravensrule]

Some of this is NL ball too. A couple times he got PH for in the 8th inning.

Eh. I know that has a part in it and I know the term ace is amorphous but "aces", even in the NL, go longer than 7 innings every once and awhile. I'm not arguing that he wouldn't be an upgrade over what we have, I was just responding to the previous poster's comment that he was an ace. Take second tier NL guys like Homer Bailey, Jordan Zimmermann, Garza, Lynn...they all go more than 7 from time to time. The fact that he hasn't gone over 7 innings flat over the past two seasons eliminates him from being coined an "ace". In fact, he has never pitched a complete game in 160 starts.

Again, he is a good pitcher and I understand the advance stats but I just wonder if it would be worth what it would cost to get him. I personally don't think Ed Rod, Berry and a low-level player would get it done.

[Baltoravensrule]

And you know this how? The Orioles think he'll be a upgrade over someone why else scout him.

I definitely think he will be an upgrade over someone but explain to me how Jorge De La Rosa would be an upgrade over anyone?

[Guest]

Eh. I know that has a part in it and I know the term ace is amorphous but "aces", even in the NL, go longer than 7 innings every once and awhile. I'm not arguing that he wouldn't be an upgrade over what we have, I was just responding to the previous poster's comment that he was an ace. Take second tier NL guys like Homer Bailey, Jordan Zimmermann, Garza, Lynn...they all go more than 7 from time to time. The fact that he hasn't gone over 7 innings flat over the past two seasons eliminates him from being coined an "ace". In fact, he has never pitched a complete game in 160 starts.

Again, he is a good pitcher and I understand the advance stats but I just wonder if it would be worth what it would cost to get him. I personally don't think Ed Rod, Berry and a low-level player would get it done.

Maybe but i would tell SD take your pick but the big 3 are going no where.

[Guest]

I definitely think he will be an upgrade over someone but explain to me how Jorge De La Rosa would be an upgrade over anyone?

I think he would be in the pen for us.

[Guest]

Kennedy going out for the 8th inning.

[LayzieDES]

I definitely think he will be an upgrade over someone but explain to me how Jorge De La Rosa would be an upgrade over anyone?

It was only a couple years ago when De La Rosa and Jimenez formed a pretty potent 1 & 2 combo for the Rockies. Now we argue which would be worse in the bullpen.

[Guest]

Final line tonight- 8 innings 3 Hits 0 Runs 4BB 8 SO final pitch was at 96 MPH.

What a start

[Jonesy10]

I've seen the numbers... but I don't believe them.

Trading for Kennedy would be a worse failure than the Feldman trade. I don't think he'd be better than what we have... yes including Ubaldo.

Last season with the Cubs Feldman had a 3.46 ERA and a 3.93 FIP. He had mediocre strikeout and decent walk numbers and his good season was basically all due to a low BABIP. Kennedy has a 3.47 ERA and a 2.92 FIP. He also strikes out well over a batter per inning.

How can you not believe in the stats? Even if you don't think he's this good (he's actually been much better than the ERA indicates) how could you honestly say he wouldn't be better than any of our starters when his career ERA is under 4 and only 1 of 6 Oriole starters have a better ERA than that this season, and that's Gausman who has barely pitched...

The O's gave up a decent back end of the pen arm and a starter who is now unbelievable for Feldman, a pitcher with a history of being pretty bad but was having a season like a decent 4/5. Kennedy is pitching like a 1/2 starter this year and has pitched like a 3/4 starter in his career (with another year of being a good 1/2 a few years back).

[Jonesy10]

Which of our current SP would he be an upgrade over? Who does he replace? He won't have a sub 4.00 ERA in the AL East.

It doesn't matter who he replaces. That can work itself out. Kennedy has been better than any of our starters this season and MUCH better than everyone besides Gausman. Gausman, Kennedy, Tillman, and Chen form a pretty good top 4. Gonzo/Norris/Jimenez can battle it for the fifth spot. And why won't he have an ERA under 4.00 in the AL East? The Sox, Yankees, and Rays offenses are not what they used to be. Heck, OPACY isn't even as hitter friendly as it used to be.

The difference in ERA between leagues is .28. Add .28 to Kennedy's ERA and you get a 3.75 ERA. That's not including the fact that his peripheals indicate his ERA should be much lower. It's also not including the fact that his BABIP is very high considering his batted ball profile (especially compared to other SD starters) and that Orioles starters have consistently found a way to pitch better than their peripheals have indicated.

[Norfolk orioles]

He was money tonight, no doubt about that (although 4 walks is a few too many for my taste). His ability to strike guys out is a huge weapon though and he can really help himself out of jams that way.

Again, I think he'd be an upgrade, but my two main points of contention are 1. Does he make us a legit WS contender (I don't honestly believe he does) 2. What is the cost (not willing to even consider trading Harvey, bundy or Gausman) so what can we REALISTICALLY get him for?

I don't think berry and e-rod are enough.

So the question remains, can we honestly afford him and will it be worth it for the upgrade?

[Jonesy10]

Last season Kennedy was traded for Thatcher (LOOGY), Stites (17th rounder in 2011- a reliever), and a comp pick. Obviously he was having a much different season, but he was still arguably the Dbacks best starter for the 3 years prior and had some real nice seasons.

[isestrex]

Last season with the Cubs Feldman had a 3.46 ERA and a 3.93 FIP. He had mediocre strikeout and decent walk numbers and his good season was basically all due to a low BABIP. Kennedy has a 3.47 ERA and a 2.92 FIP. He also strikes out well over a batter per inning.

How can you not believe in the stats? Even if you don't think he's this good (he's actually been much better than the ERA indicates) how could you honestly say he wouldn't be better than any of our starters when his career ERA is under 4 and only 1 of 6 Oriole starters have a better ERA than that this season, and that's Gausman who has barely pitched...

The O's gave up a decent back end of the pen arm and a starter who is now unbelievable for Feldman, a pitcher with a history of being pretty bad but was having a season like a decent 4/5. Kennedy is pitching like a 1/2 starter this year and has pitched like a 3/4 starter in his career (with another year of being a good 1/2 a few years back).

...and a couple years of being worse than a #5 thrown in the middle

xFIP by year:

2007: 4.86

2008: 6.01

2009: 11.41

2010: 4.10

2011: 3.50

2012: 4.13

2013: 4.19

2014: 3.12

So he's only had one year under 4.00 before this year and this is by far his best year.... in Petco. And before you say "IT TAKES THAT INTO EFFECT" what it doesn't take into effect is the mental aspect of pitching in a hitters park vs a pitchers park. We've seen lots of evidence of solid pitchers absolutely lose it (both at home and on the road) by going to the Rockies. And we've seen mediocre pitchers have terrific numbers (both at home and on the road) when going to Petco. There's a confidence that is gained (or lost) that carries through each and every start.

Sorry but I still hold it would be a mistake of gargantuan proportions. He's not a good pitcher and would get destroyed in this division especially with a lot of games against Toronto down the stretch.

[Jonesy10]

...and a couple years of being worse than a #5 thrown in the middle

xFIP by year:

2007: 4.86

2008: 6.01

2009: 11.41

2010: 4.10

2011: 3.50

2012: 4.13

2013: 4.19

2014: 3.12

So he's only had one year under 4.00 before this year and this is by far his best year.... in Petco. And before you say "IT TAKES THAT INTO EFFECT" what it doesn't take into effect is the mental aspect of pitching in a hitters park vs a pitchers park. We've seen lots of evidence of solid pitchers absolutely lose it (both at home and on the road) by going to the Rockies. And we've seen mediocre pitchers have terrific numbers (both at home and on the road) when going to Petco. There's a confidence that is gained (or lost) that carries through each and every start.

Sorry but I still hold it would be a mistake of gargantuan proportions. He's not a good pitcher and would get destroyed in this division especially with a lot of games against Toronto down the stretch.

He pitched 19 innings in 07, 39 in 08 and 1 in 09. 2010 was his first full year in the big leagues. Also, while SD is a pitchers paradise, his ERA is better on the road this season. Much better. OPACY has been just as good as a park for pitchers as Petco this season as well... Those xFIP's are not really that bad either...especially when you consider his career xFIP is 3.97, which matches his career ERA. His strikeouts are also way up this season as are his ground balls.

In this his 5th full season, he has had an ERA over 4.02 once (last season). This will be his 4th season out of 4 that he will be at or above 2.4 WAR, and in all likelihood the 3rd season at 2.9 WAR or higher. The guy can also eat innings (hello Chen, Gonzo, Jimenez...) and can actually strike guys out, a lot of them.

[Jonesy10]

Just throwing this out there, he pitches like the good Chris Tillman. Same repertoire (FB, CT, CB, CH), very similar pitch usage, and similar velocity (Kennedy's pitches are each ~1.5 MPH faster).