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Orioles will be watching Ian Kennedy tonight.

Greg

By Greg
in Orioles Talk

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Jonesy10 Hangout Veteran Council

Jonesy10

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Kennedy is talented. I was a huge fan when he first came up with the Yanks and was quite surprised when he just got lit up. For some time, he didn't look like the guy he had been in the minors where he dominated. He definitely appears to have figured something out. I am intrigued.

That written, there are some questions to consider:

1) I don't think we should blindly discount his prior experience in the AL east for the simple reason that he became less than he should be as he got hit which means he is susceptible to confidence swings and the degraded performances that come with it.

2) I am REALLY leery of using FIP to predict a single player's future performance over the short term. It is a mis-application of the stat IMHO.

3) Giving up ERod and Berry isn't trivial. If our talent guys don't think they are likely to develop into ML performers, I'm ok with using them to get value. I don't have enough knowledge of them to evaluate their chances effectively.

4) This is different than Bud Norris as Kennedy has 1.4 seasons prior to free agency rather than 2.4 seasons. Kennedy would need to bring a BIG delta in value to be worth what we would likely need to trade.

Summary:

I think Kennedy is worth exploring. I think he is likely to be better than Gonzalez and Chen by a decent amount. I wouldn't give up Berry and ERod for him unless our talent guys think their value has peaked and they are about to be exposed.

Saying that we can't trust Kennedy's past in the AL East is like saying we can never trust Gausman because he was bad last season. Both pitchers were new to the bigs and had too small of sample sizes.

Also his ERA since 2010 is 3.80. Even if he regressed that much from his current performance that's still similar to 2013 Tillman with better peripheals.

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mdbdotcom Hangout Grand Counsel

mdbdotcom

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Saying that we can't trust Kennedy's past in the AL East is like saying we can never trust Gausman because he was bad last season. Both pitchers were new to the bigs and had too small of sample sizes.

Also his ERA since 2010 is 3.80. Even if he regressed that much from his current performance that's still similar to 2013 Tillman with better peripheals.

What if someone said that he was not very good in the NL in 2012 (1.301 WHIP) or 2013 (1.395 WHIP)? He's having a great year. Should anyone expect that to continue to the end of this year and next?

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Tx Oriole Hangout Grand Counsel

Tx Oriole

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Saying that we can't trust Kennedy's past in the AL East is like saying we can never trust Gausman because he was bad last season. Both pitchers were new to the bigs and had too small of sample sizes.

Also his ERA since 2010 is 3.80. Even if he regressed that much from his current performance that's still similar to 2013 Tillman with better peripheals.

I am for the O's getting him. But as some have pointed out the cost could be too

costly for the O's.

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Jonesy10 Hangout Veteran Council

Jonesy10

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What if someone said that he was not very good in the NL in 2012 (1.301 WHIP) or 2013 (1.395 WHIP)? He's having a great year. Should anyone expect that to continue to the end of this year and next?

He still had a 4.02 ERA in 2012, threw over 200 innings and was worth 2.9 WAR. Not fantastic but how many Orioles starters have thrown 200+ innings and had 2.9 WAR in a season since 2012?

I'll give you 2013 though. He was bad.

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Jonesy10 Hangout Veteran Council

Jonesy10

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I am for the O's getting him. But as some have pointed out the cost could be too

costly for the O's.

If they're not giving up one of the big 3 then how could it be too costly?

You'd still have Bundy, Gausman, Harvey, Tillman, Norris, Gonzo, Jimenez as starter options under control as well as S. Johnson and McFarland. I think they can afford to give up EdRod or Wright/Berry+ for a guy that is a good 3/4 (and helps the team right now) and can pitch like a 1/2 some years.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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If they're not giving up one of the big 3 then how could it be too costly?

You'd still have Bundy, Gausman, Harvey, Tillman, Norris, Gonzo, Jimenez as starter options under control as well as S. Johnson and McFarland. I think they can afford to give up EdRod or Wright/Berry+ for a guy that is a good 3/4 (and helps the team right now) and can pitch like a 1/2 some years.

EdRod is not on my untouchable list. I have had serious doubts about the overall quality of his raw stuff for some time now.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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So I'm guessing you'd willing trade him for an upgrade before the deadline?

Hard part is trying to figure out if the guy is an upgrade and who you move out of the rotation. Now if they could move EdRod for your boy and then move Gonzo for an upgrade at 2nd/C/LHRP I would be more interested in it. Even then you end up with six starters.

Part of the trouble with the current rotation is they are not consistent, not consistently good and not consistently bad. Makes it really hard to project whom the weakest link is from this point forward.

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