2015 Rotation: 6 men, 5 spots. How does the team determine the odd man out?

[sfosfan]

Miguel Gonzalez is the odd man out but if Bundy looks good in the spring, someone will get traded then or early in the season.

Couldn't agree more. Right now we have "6" starters in salary only- Ubaldo shouldn't be considered a starter until he proves he belongs. I hope he does since when he's on he's so much fun to watch.

[Nevermore]

Your opinion is as good as any of ours.

Hey, my opinion is BETTER than all of youse!

Seriously, in this poll, we're talking about what we think the club will do, not what we think that the club ought to do. Maybe near the very end, I'll post my own thoughts on what I believe will happen. For now, I just want to see what others think.

[Nevermore]

All right, this thread is stalling. Now to comment on a few things that have been posted:

1) I agree, Miguel Gonzalez gets no respect in these quarters. Why does anyone think that management is so dense that they would relegate a steady starter like Gonzo to the pen?

2) I actually voted that someone will get traded. I would guess Wei-Yin Chen because he is Scott Boras's client. Except that then we would have a completely right-handed rotation. Maybe Bud Norris; he's right handed. I suppose that, if the Os keep Chen, the club will adjust to 2015 being Chen's final year with the Os because of Scott Boras holding him out next off season to get overpaid by someone (won't be the Os). But then the Os could look forward to overspending in order to get a different LHP starter. Or else find a LHP starter in the Mexican League, where he could get the respect(?) that Gonzo currently gets in these quarters.

3) I note that someone voted for Bud Norris being sent to the pen. Just curious, why would Os management put Bud into the pen when he had one of his best seasons in 2014? Do you think that Bud will totally bomb in ST? Someone voted for Gausman, but I am supposing that this is temporary because Gausman still has options. But then you could send him down rather than putting him in the pen.

4) I notice that Camden Chat has Ubaldo listed as a relief pitcher. So I gather that they believe that management also has him listed there, so they could send him back to the pen at the beginning of 2015 because he's officially a "relief pitcher."

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/baltimore-orioles#roster

[srock]

All right, this thread is stalling. Now to comment on a few things that have been posted:

1) I agree, Miguel Gonzalez gets no respect in these quarters. Why does anyone think that management is so dense that they would relegate a steady starter like Gonzo to the pen?

2) I actually voted that someone will get traded. I would guess Wei-Yin Chen because he is Scott Boras's client. Except that then we would have a completely right-handed rotation. Maybe Bud Norris; he's right handed. I suppose that, if the Os keep Chen, the club will adjust to 2015 being Chen's final year with the Os because of Scott Boras holding him out next off season to get overpaid by someone (won't be the Os). But then the Os could look forward to overspending in order to get a different LHP starter. Or else find a LHP starter in the Mexican League, where he could get the respect(?) that Gonzo currently gets in these quarters.

3) I note that someone voted for Bud Norris being sent to the pen. Just curious, why would Os management put Bud into the pen when he had one of his best seasons in 2014? Do you think that Bud will totally bomb in ST? Someone voted for Gausman, but I am supposing that this is temporary because Gausman still has options. But then you could send him down rather than putting him in the pen.

4) I notice that Camden Chat has Ubaldo listed as a relief pitcher. So I gather that they believe that management also has him listed there, so they could send him back to the pen at the beginning of 2015 because he's officially a "relief pitcher."

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/baltimore-orioles#roster

Miguel Gonzales is the most likely guy to send to Norfolk due to roster rules. He CAN be sent down. No one else easily can be moved to the minors.

I doubt anyone gets traded. Orioles need the pitching depth.

Most likely, someone gets hurt and starts the season on the DL, then a LONG rehab stint, then someone else goes the DL, then eventually Gonzales goes down to the minors. A few guys skip a start now and then.

Its basically a drawn out juggling act but Duquette is a master of it.

[Nevermore]

Here is a link to a Call To The Pen blog post that I saw on Baseball Reference:

http://calltothepen.com/2015/01/07/baltimore-orioles-can-2015-rotation-get-job-done/

I hope the link works. I had problems with one of the ads not wanting to be displayed. The article basically stated that, if no one gets injured or traded, it will be Ubaldo who winds up in the pen as the 6th starter.

My own further thoughts. Most people who voted in the poll thought that it would be Gonzo who winds up either in AAA or in the pen because of Gonzo's "lack of leverage", being the lowest paid, furthest away from FA, or other "baseball politics." I have extremely serious doubts that Tillman, Gausman, Norris, or Chen will end up in the bullpen. All of these had decent 2014 records so no reason, even if one of them were to have a horrible ST, that any of them would be the 6th starter. I think that Gonzo should be included with these 4, but I gather that, in his case, there is the "baseball politics" issue. As for Ubaldo, the "baseball politics" issues are complicated. Yes, DD signed him to be one of the starters, and his salary is the highest of all of the starters. So one would think it obvious that he has to be one of the starters starting the 2015 season. However, what happpens if Ubaldo starts a few games the first few weeks, and he gets completely shellacked, reverting to the "bad Ubaldo" of the 2014 season? This makes him look bad, of course. But it makes DD look bad for having signed him in the first place. Wallace said that Ubaldo is improving from the depths of the 2014 season, but he has not yet "turned the corner." It might be better to let him continue to be a spot starter/long reliever and continue his work on his mechanics. Then he'll be able to gain consistency and be a quality starter later in the season.

[weams]

Then he'll be able to gain consistency and be a quality starter later in the season.

After he has ten consecutive horrible starts. A mediocre one resets. In 2015.

[Nevermore]

After he has ten consecutive horrible starts. A mediocre one resets. In 2015.

I don't think that Buck will allow Ubaldo to have 10 consecutive horrible starts before taking him out of the rotation.

[weams]

I don't think that Buck will allow Ubaldo to have 10 consecutive horrible starts before taking him out of the rotation.

Because he won't have 10 consecutive horrible ones. He didn't last year. He's in the rotation for 2015.

[weams]

Here is a link to a Call To The Pen blog post that I saw on Baseball Reference:

http://calltothepen.com/2015/01/07/baltimore-orioles-can-2015-rotation-get-job-done/

I hope the link works. I had problems with one of the ads not wanting to be displayed. The article basically stated that, if no one gets injured or traded, it will be Ubaldo who winds up in the pen as the 6th starter.

My own further thoughts. Most people who voted in the poll thought that it would be Gonzo who winds up either in AAA or in the pen because of Gonzo's "lack of leverage", being the lowest paid, furthest away from FA, or other "baseball politics." I have extremely serious doubts that Tillman, Gausman, Norris, or Chen will end up in the bullpen. All of these had decent 2014 records so no reason, even if one of them were to have a horrible ST, that any of them would be the 6th starter. I think that Gonzo should be included with these 4, but I gather that, in his case, there is the "baseball politics" issue. As for Ubaldo, the "baseball politics" issues are complicated. Yes, DD signed him to be one of the starters, and his salary is the highest of all of the starters. So one would think it obvious that he has to be one of the starters starting the 2015 season. However, what happpens if Ubaldo starts a few games the first few weeks, and he gets completely shellacked, reverting to the "bad Ubaldo" of the 2014 season? This makes him look bad, of course. But it makes DD look bad for having signed him in the first place. Wallace said that Ubaldo is improving from the depths of the 2014 season, but he has not yet "turned the corner." It might be better to let him continue to be a spot starter/long reliever and continue his work on his mechanics. Then he'll be able to gain consistency and be a quality starter later in the season.

Is that Joe the mock NFL draft guy?

[Nevermore]

Because he won't have 10 consecutive horrible ones. He didn't last year. He's in the rotation for 2015.

Well, he had enough horrible/mediocre starts for Buck to take him out of the rotation last year. Would Buck want to risk a repeat of that in 2015? Or would Buck want to make sure that he continues the progress he made at the end of the 2014 season after Buck put him in the pen? If he continues this progress, even if it starts in the pen, he will more likely be a consistent, quality starter.

[Nevermore]

Is that Joe the mock NFL draft guy?

I have no idea.

[scOtt]

Again, it's not about what you or I think should happen. It's about what will happen. Ubaldo, if he's on the team, will be in the rotation at the start of the season.

And given a long leash I think. Like Weams said, he won't have 10 horrible starts in a row.

And he might pitch well. It could happen.

[El Gordo]

Don't know how Buck thinks about this but Norris makes the most sense to me to be traded or go to the pen. He will be making 9M or so in arb and isn't worth as much as Gonzo, Tillman, or Chen, IMO. He is a good strike out pitcher the first two times through the line up but doesn't go much deeper into games. Gonzo does. Bud could be a very effective back of the rotation guy if he isn't traded.

[Nevermore]

Again, it's not about what you or I think should happen. It's about what will happen. Ubaldo, if he's on the team, will be in the rotation at the start of the season.

Not according to the Baseball Reference guy who writes "Call To The Pen." So we'll see. That's what makes baseball so interesting. Whatever happens, I will root for our Os pitchers to have a great year.

[PaulFolk]

4) I notice that Camden Chat has Ubaldo listed as a relief pitcher. So I gather that they believe that management also has him listed there, so they could send him back to the pen at the beginning of 2015 because he's officially a "relief pitcher."

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/baltimore-orioles#roster

I wouldn't draw any conclusions from that roster. The site you linked to is just an auto-generated roster that gets pulled from another source (maybe rotoworld). It doesn't have any inside knowledge about how the Orioles view Jimenez.

I would assume Jimenez is listed as a relief pitcher because that's where he ended the 2014 season. You might notice that Kevin Gausman is also listed as a relief pitcher, possibly because that's where he pitched in the postseason. Plus there are a few pitchers who just aren't classified correctly. Oliver Drake is listed as a starter, even though he hasn't started a game since 2012. Mike Wright is listed as a reliever, even though he pitched exclusively as a starter for Norfolk in 2014.