Camden Depot: How the Orioles Broke FIP

[weams]

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2015/01/how-orioles-broke-fip.html

What's interesting is that the Orioles are loosely following this plan. The Orioles have potential elite offensive and defensive talent at third base and shortstop. Schoop is excellent defensively at second base while Adam Jones has elite offensive ability at center field. The Orioles have potential above average offensive talents at first base, catcher and right field. The Orioles would strongly benefit from having an excellent center field option that can both hit and field that could push Adam Jones to right field. It would also be nice to add another platoon bat that can team up with Delmon Young to hit right handed pitching. Still, the Orioles are close to having the offensive talent to be successful.

[33rdst]

What do you know, it takes nine players to have an elite "team". Good article. I like that the O's appear to have some answers for the future both offensively and defensively. In reading the part about AJ, it made me wonder if moving Lough to center and Adam to right field might not be a bad idea. I don't think Buck would do it. Just a thought.

[Frobby]

Last week I noted that even an elite defense should only be expected to outperform their FIP by about .20 points. So how were the [1960-85] Orioles able to outperform their FIP by nearly .3 points? According to Fangraphs fielding metric, the Orioles defense was valued at 1276 runs from 1960 to 1985. The next best team was the New York Yankees and their defense was valued at only 498 runs over that time period. The #2 through #4 teams defensively were worth 1239 runs from 1960 to 1985. The Orioles defense was about two and a half times better than the second best defense in the time frame or by about thirty runs per year. The reason why the Orioles outperformed their FIP by the extent that they did is because their defense wasn't merely elite. It was legendary.

Man I was a spoiled kid, watching those teams play!

Very interesting article, and I agree that the current Orioles' formula for success looks a lot like their formula back in the golden era of Orioles baseball.

[Aristotelian]

I am not a huge fan of FIP but these data do not "break" it as a measure of pitcher quality. It just says that team defense can help a pitcher outperform his FIP. In other words, a pitcher with a bad FIP may still be a bad pitcher.

That said, I love how the O's have proved the importance of defense. I love watching these guys make plays and helping their pitchers out.

[AlbionHero]

Makes you wonder what some of these top pitchers in the league would be able to do with the O's defense.

[Can_of_corn]

Makes you wonder what some of these top pitchers in the league would be able to do with the O's defense.

They would get a smaller bump due to allowing less balls in play.

[srock]

Man I was a spoiled kid, watching those teams play!

Very interesting article, and I agree that the current Orioles' formula for success looks a lot like their formula back in the golden era of Orioles baseball.

One could also argue the end of the golden era was the start of the modern free agent era AND the steroid fueled homer era in baseball. The Orioles did not adjust well to either.

As offense falls back to earth, defense is once again more valuable.

And Duquette knows how to handle free agency as did his predecessor Andy MacPhail. The combination of which has (appeared at least) to transform the organization so it can thrive in the free agent world.

[srock]

The article does not talk about keeping the ball in the ballpark, an element enabling your defense to be effective.

Three keys to low cost pitching staff

Pitchers under team control

Pitchers who keep the ball in the ballpark

Top notch defense

[Tryptamine]

A guy like Rick Porcello would be an absolute monster with the O's defense behind him. You could probably lock him in for 5/75, 6/100 at most, and I'd be willing to bet he'd put up sub 3.20ERA during his contract duration. Ace production for one hell of a lot less than it would cost to lock up David Price/Scherzer/Samardzijia/Zimmerman/Cueto etc.

[Larry18]

The problem with FIP is that it's based on the belief that the pitcher can only effect walks,strikeouts and home runs, everything else is left in the hands on defense. This isn't true at all, a pitcher can effect where the ball is hit and we know this because shifts work. They work so well that people want to ban them.

[Can_of_corn]

The problem with FIP is that it's based on the belief that the pitcher can only effect walks,strikeouts and home runs, everything else is left in the hands on defense. This isn't true at all, a pitcher can effect where the ball is hit and we know this because shifts work. They work so well that people want to ban them.

It is more the hitter effecting where the ball is hit then it is the pitcher.

Anyway it is more important how the ball is hit then where the ball in hit.

[MurphDogg]

I am not a huge fan of FIP but these data do not "break" it as a measure of pitcher quality. It just says that team defense can help a pitcher outperform his FIP. In other words, a pitcher with a bad FIP may still be a bad pitcher.

That said, I love how the O's have proved the importance of defense. I love watching these guys make plays and helping their pitchers out.

Interesting. Do you have any thoughts on Kim Kardashian, in re: the internet? Or are you simply not familiar with this turn of phrase?

[Tryptamine]

The problem with FIP is that it's based on the belief that the pitcher can only effect walks,strikeouts and home runs, everything else is left in the hands on defense. This isn't true at all, a pitcher can effect where the ball is hit and we know this because shifts work. They work so well that people want to ban them.

They can control what side of the field they hit to, but they can not precisely and consistently target holes. One of the few who could ever do this was Ichiro.