The Chris Tillman Extension Thread

[MurphDogg]

Top 25 in MLB in ERA+ over the last three years, top 25 in innings each of the last two years and just about to turn 27. Yes he benefitted from the Orioles defense, but I don't think there are 60 pitchers who are likely to be better than Tillman this year.

[Reboulet'sStache]

And your rationale for that statement is what?

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Lack of a consistent third pitch that seemed to just completely disappear last year. Lack of strike out pitch. S/O per 9, FIP, whip. Among other things.

[MurphDogg]

Lack of a consistent third pitch that seemed to just completely disappear last year. Lack of strike out pitch. S/O per 9' date=' FIP, whip. Among other things.[/quote']

The first three are all the same complaint. Lack of strikeouts. He was still 32nd in the Majors in strikeout rate in 2013, though he fell to 66th last year.

He was 41st in MLB in WHIP in 2014, 40th in 2013. So well in #2 starter territory.

[Aristotelian]

Not according to data. He is top 20 in the AL.

Which is about the same as Hughes and Niese and a bunch of other good-not-great pitchers. Whenever he takes the mound, I feel good that we have a chance to win but I don't think he has shut down stuff. In fact he has only one CG shutout in his career.

How about Julio Teheran as a comp. 2013-14 numbers.

Teheran: 38 wins, 3.03 ERA, 7.88 k?9, 6 WAR (fangraphs).

Tillman: 39 wins, 3.52 ERA, 7.16 K/9, 4 WAR.

Teheran is hands down a superior pitcher. His extension:

$3M, $6M, $8M, $11M, team option for $12M

Tillman has a little bit longer track record and is already making $4M. Still, I would much rather have Teheran for what the Braces are paying than what is proposed here for Tillman. I would love to extend Tillman but I think i would come in lower.

$6M, $8M, $10M, $10M ($5M bonus if he stays healthy), team option $12M with $2M buyout. He would be guaranteed $436M.

[OriolesMagic83]

Which is about the same as Hughes and Niese and a bunch of other good-not-great pitchers. Whenever he takes the mound, I feel good that we have a chance to win but I don't think he has shut down stuff. In fact he has only one CG shutout in his career.

How about Julio Teheran as a comp. 2013-14 numbers.

Teheran: 38 wins, 3.03 ERA, 7.88 k?9, 6 WAR (fangraphs).

Tillman: 39 wins, 3.52 ERA, 7.16 K/9, 4 WAR.

Teheran is hands down a superior pitcher. His extension:

$3M, $6M, $8M, $11M, team option for $12M

Tillman has a little bit longer track record and is already making $4M. Still, I would much rather have Teheran for what the Braces are paying than what is proposed here for Tillman. I would love to extend Tillman but I think i would come in lower.

$6M, $8M, $10M, $10M ($5M bonus if he stays healthy), team option $12M with $2M buyout. He would be guaranteed $436M.

Teheran does not have as much service time (as you noted). He should really fire his agent, b/c the other 29 mlb teams would love to beat that contract. The O's are going to have to offer $15 mill+ for free agent years to even get him to listen. #4 starters will probably be getting $12-15 mill/yr by then.

[Redskins Rick]

Number 15 by what measure? I have at 69 by rWAR and 48 by fWAR.

Not sure where I was yesterday, baseball reference maybe, had the 2014 AL pitchers listed by season stats and then scored by some internal formula they use.

[MurphDogg]

Teheran does not have as much service time (as you noted). He should really fire his agent, b/c the other 29 mlb teams would love to beat that contract. The O's are going to have to offer $15 mill+ for free agent years to even get him to listen. #4 starters will probably be getting $12-15 mill/yr by then.

Teheran signed that deal when he was still two years from arbitration let alone free agency. He traded long term earning potential for financial security. His arm could fall off tomorrow and he would be set for life. There is value in that. I'm sure if he told his agent that he wanted to go year by year and earn $500k in 2014 and the same in 2015 with the hopes of reaching arbitration and free agency without injuries, his agent would have listened. I bet Jair Jurrjens wished he had signed a similar deal two years into his career.

[Frobby]

Teheran signed that deal when he was still two years from arbitration let alone free agency. He traded long term earning potential for financial security. His arm could fall off tomorrow and he would be set for life. There is value in that. I'm sure if he told his agent that he wanted to go year by year and earn $500k in 2014 and the same in 2015 with the hopes of reaching arbitration and free agency without injuries, his agent would have listened. I bet Jair Jurrjens wished he had signed a similar deal two years into his career.

I don't think some people appreciate how high the risk level is with pitchers. Signing a guy to a long term deal several years before he is ready for free agency is a huge risk to the team, and takes a huge amount of risk off the player. There has to be a significant discount off of what the player would expect to receive if he stayed healthy in order to justify the risk.

[BarclaySouthway]

I don't think some people appreciate how high the risk level is with pitchers. Signing a guy to a long term deal several years before he is ready for free agency is a huge risk to the team, and takes a huge amount of risk off the player. There has to be a significant discount off of what the player would expect to receive if he stayed healthy in order to justify the risk.

I'm not sure 4/46 guaranteed is enough of a discount for the O's considering the huge amount of risk that you are accurately describing. Tillman would be foolish not to take it. It's only a few mil. less than he would get for those 4 years if everything goes right for him.

But for it to work out for the O's, he needs to have four more seasons like the last two. Given the risk of injury and some of the critiques that other posters have already made, I see that as slightly more unlikely than likely. If he pitched every game like the first inning of the division series maybe I'd be whistling a different tune.

Tillman's grandchildren would still be set for life at 4/40, with a couple more good earning years possible after that. And if Tillman has one bad year out of the four, the O's still get decent value from that deal. But I guess Tillman wouldn't take that offer because he has far bigger cajones than working stiffs like myself.

[Frobby]

I'm not sure 4/46 guaranteed is enough of a discount for the O's considering the huge amount of risk that you are accurately describing. Tillman would be foolish not to take it. It's only a few mil. less than he would get for those 4 years if everything goes right for him.

But for it to work out for the O's, he needs to have four more seasons like the last two. Given the risk of injury and some of the critiques that other posters have already made, I see that as slightly more unlikely than likely. If he pitched every game like the first inning of the division series maybe I'd be whistling a different tune.

Tillman's grandchildren would still be set for life at 4/40, with a couple more good earning years possible after that. And if Tillman has one bad year out of the four, the O's still get decent value from that deal. But I guess Tillman wouldn't take that offer because he has far bigger cajones than working stiffs like myself.

Different teams have different tolerance for risk, and so do different players (and agents). I agree my proposal may be a bit more generous than what the Orioles would offer, given the team's relatively low tolerance for risk. With Tillman, who knows? It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

[Aristotelian]

Also, remember what happened the last time the O's offered a pitcher a long term deal. We got Ubaldo. Now I am still hopefull that Ubaldo turns things around and we get a couple years out of him. But he has become a major headache for the organization. Can't go to AAA, can't be traded, costs $12M a year. I am sure that is in the back of the organization's mind now.

[OrioleInCanada]

Id pass on Tillman long term. I feel he's benefited from our defense more than most and his flyballs scary. Good fit for the current team and has been fun watching his results, but I think he won't be worth the price long term. Would rather trade him perhaps next offseason depending how this year goes.

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[xian4]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en-gb"><p>Since we're few hours from first pitch I'll write the obvious. Sources say any extension talks w Chris Tillman have been tabled. No surprise</p>— Dan Connolly (@danconnollysun) <a href="

">April 6, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Herman]

Also, remember what happened the last time the O's offered a pitcher a long term deal. We got Ubaldo. Now I am still hopefull that Ubaldo turns things around and we get a couple years out of him. But he has become a major headache for the organization. Can't go to AAA, can't be traded, costs $12M a year. I am sure that is in the back of the organization's mind now.

Hopefully the Orioles don't let Ubaldo's contract effect they position with Tillman. Tillman has an easy delivery and I think he has been consistent enough to warrant an extension by the Orioles. Someone will certainly overpay for him if he ever becomes a free agent but hopefully the Orioles can lock him in

[weams]

Hopefully the Orioles don't let Ubaldo's contract effect they position with Tillman. Tillman has an easy delivery and I think he has been consistent enough to warrant an extension by the Orioles. Someone will certainly overpay for him if he ever becomes a free agent but hopefully the Orioles can lock him in

I'm surprised that they did not get something done.