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When should fans really start to worry?

Ohfan67

By Ohfan67
in Orioles Talk

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Three Run Homer Hangout Veteran Council

Three Run Homer

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Here's a link to a piece last month by Jason Lisk of USA today looking at recent evidence on slow starts:

http://thebiglead.com/2015/04/17/mlb-breakdown-when-should-teams-like-the-giants-nationals-and-mariners-start-to-worry-about-slow-starts/

The article looks at the last 5 years of data for both leagues, and computes the likelhiood of a team finishing in the top 5 of their league by the end of the season, as a function of the team's current place in the standings and how far along the season is.

We are currently in the middle of week 6, and we are currently in 11th place in the AL. No team in 11th place by the end of week 6 has made the playoffs in either league over the last 5 seasons, although a handful of teams below 11th have managed to get in.

Obviously you'd rather look at more years of data, but this article suggests that it's not too soon to worry. The O's did rally last summer after a mediocre start, but that's not something you can count on happening every year.

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MurphDogg Hangout Grand Counsel

MurphDogg

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Here's a link to a piece last month by Jason Lisk of USA today looking at recent evidence on slow starts:

http://thebiglead.com/2015/04/17/mlb-breakdown-when-should-teams-like-the-giants-nationals-and-mariners-start-to-worry-about-slow-starts/

The article looks at the last 5 years of data for both leagues, and computes the likelhiood of a team finishing in the top 5 of their league by the end of the season, as a function of the team's current place in the standings and how far along the season is.

We are currently in the middle of week 6, and we are currently in 11th place in the AL. No team in 11th place by the end of week 6 has made the playoffs in either league over the last 5 seasons, although a handful of teams below 11th have managed to get in.

Obviously you'd rather look at more years of data, but this article suggests that it's not too soon to worry. The O's did rally last summer after a mediocre start, but that's not something you can count on happening every year.

So as long as we make it up to 10th by the end of this week we will be fine.

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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Here's a link to a piece last month by Jason Lisk of USA today looking at recent evidence on slow starts:

http://thebiglead.com/2015/04/17/mlb-breakdown-when-should-teams-like-the-giants-nationals-and-mariners-start-to-worry-about-slow-starts/

The article looks at the last 5 years of data for both leagues, and computes the likelhiood of a team finishing in the top 5 of their league by the end of the season, as a function of the team's current place in the standings and how far along the season is.

We are currently in the middle of week 6, and we are currently in 11th place in the AL. No team in 11th place by the end of week 6 has made the playoffs in either league over the last 5 seasons, although a handful of teams below 11th have managed to get in.

Obviously you'd rather look at more years of data, but this article suggests that it's not too soon to worry. The O's did rally last summer after a mediocre start, but that's not something you can count on happening every year.

Thanks for sharing!!

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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I think it's logical to be a little worried by now. But being worried is not the same thing as freaking out and declaring that the season is over, the team "is what it is," etc.

I think Roy's comments about the fundamentals are pretty on point. Also, Tillman and Norris just haven't been good. Hopefully that picks up.

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scOtt Hangout Grand Counsel

scOtt

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I think it's logical to be a little worried by now. But being worried is not the same thing as freaking out and declaring that the season is over, the team "is what it is," etc.

I think Roy's comments about the fundamentals are pretty on point. Also, Tillman and Norris just haven't been good. Hopefully that picks up.

All this. There have been many bad things already this year. This season could go from bad to worse in a second.

But it could also go from bad to better. Plenty going right for us. Manny is hitting and fielded tonight at least. Davis is striking out a ton but hitting for a fair average too, and walking some and hitting HRs. Temp nuggets are hitting HRs and contributing. U-man pitched acelike Monday, Miguel tonight. Tillman wasn't even THAT bad Tuesday. Every player DL loss we have, Dan has someone ready to step in. It's early enough, and good enough to not even be close to panic time.

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Bahama O's Fan Hangout Grand Counsel

Bahama O's Fan

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All this. There have been many bad things already this year. This season could go from bad to worse in a second.

But it could also go from bad to better. Plenty going right for us. Manny is hitting and fielded tonight at least. Davis is striking out a ton but hitting for a fair average too, and walking some and hitting HRs. Temp nuggets are hitting HRs and contributing. U-man pitched acelike Monday, Miguel tonight. Tillman wasn't even THAT bad Tuesday. Every player DL loss we have, Dan has someone ready to step in. It's early enough, and good enough to not even be close to panic time.

This right here has been what has fascinated me during Dan's time here. I remember years past where if one player got hurt, it all fell apart.

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