Sabermetrics, My Take

[eddie83]

I think a lot of the accumulated WAR went to the defense.

I could be wrong,

It did, practically all of it, which I don't buy. No question the offense in the division was down some as well.

[eddie83]

This has been argued about a 100 times, not the biggest Lough fan in general, but I agree with some others that Lough's defensive sample is enough to suggest he is an elite defender and could probably hit enough in regular play to be an average overall player at corner OF. The offense is more questionable than the defense imo.

Theoretically they are the same player. Are the adjustments perfect? Could you dig into it more and find guys that might project marginally better/worse based on their individual traits and park characteristics. Yeah sure. I'm sure GM's do that but I'm not how well it works. In the end good players are good players.

fWAR (defense neutral) actually said they were better 2014 than 2013. rWAR maybe about the same based on debiting their better defensive contribution and BP. That makes sense to me. At least on aggregate.

I brought up Young, Snider and Markakis' WAR to this point in the season and how Young and Snider both rated better on defense than Nick, in another thread. They were about .9 WAR in total more than Nick with about 20 more PA's. Drungo basically said that it was too small of a sample. My point is it isn't like Lough played a bunch of innings last year compared to an everyday player. I agree he is a good defender and that is valuable I just question how much?

My point is I think hitters perform differently in different places. I think OPS+ has value, i just think hitters aren't robots who have the same OPS+ no matter where they play.

[ledzepp8]

To further some up and be done with this, player evaluation is an art, not a science. Human performance can't be judged entirely by statistics. The advanced metrics of today should be used in conjunction with human judgment. Simply saying that someone has more WAR doesn't win the argument. DD and Buck make big bucks along with their staffs and we should rely on their experience and judgment along with advanced metrics in making personnel decisions. I don't think this is all that controversial to say and do believe it's true. Let's go out and get a win today gentlemen, I sense a little positive momentum building after last night.

Huh? Of course it can. That's exactly how you judge performance, by the results. Now can statistics measure stuff like effort, hustle, selflessness/selfishness, attitude problems,etc? Of course not. No one ever said they could. But just because they can't doesn't mean you discount the things that they can measure.

[ledzepp8]

No, let's add human judgment on top of statistics to make the right decision.

You're the only one who thinks that this doesn't happen.

[ledzepp8]

Who needs a buncha nerds telling us how good players are?!! Not me sir, not me! I think all advanced metrics should be taken with a grain of Ricin. They have single handedly ruined the fun of the game!!

If you see no sarcasm in this post you fail at many things!

Pretttttttty, pretttttttttty, pretttttty good post.

[ledzepp8]

I brought up Young, Snider and Markakis' WAR to this point in the season and how Young and Snider both rated better on defense than Nick, in another thread. They were about .9 WAR in total more than Nick with about 20 more PA's. Drungo basically said that it was too small of a sample. My point is it isn't like Lough played a bunch of innings last year compared to an everyday player. I agree he is a good defender and that is valuable I just question how much?

My point is I think hitters perform differently in different places. I think OPS+ has value, i just think hitters aren't robots who have the same OPS+ no matter where they play.

It is too small of a sample size to say that Snider and Young are good OFs and will continue to be good OFs this season. Lough has a track record (over his career) of playing good defense.

As far as OPS+, you don't seem to get that whatever the formula is that spits out OPS+, it involves park adjustments. Does that automatically mean that if Adam Jones has an OPS+ of 140 playing most of his games at OPACY, that he will have an OPS+ of 140 playing most of his games at Coors Field? No I wouldn't think so. It's just trying to compare him as an Oriole to that of someone playing for the Rockies (or whatever team).

[eddie83]

It is too small of a sample size to say that Snider and Young are good OFs and will continue to be good OFs this season. Lough has a track record (over his career) of playing good defense.

As far as OPS+, you don't seem to get that whatever the formula is that spits out OPS+, it involves park adjustments. Does that automatically mean that if Adam Jones has an OPS+ of 140 playing most of his games at OPACY, that he will have an OPS+ of 140 playing most of his games at Coors Field? No I wouldn't think so. It's just trying to compare him as an Oriole to that of someone playing for the Rockies (or whatever team).

I get both of what you are saying. My basic point is how valuable is a player that doesn't play everyday? Like a no offense all defensive center in basketball who plays 20 minutes a game instead of 40? That player has value but how much. I am not doubting that Lough has value but is a late inning defender as valuable as an everyday player even if their WAR is the same.

I get what OPS+ does. I am just concerned if I am a GM how that player performs for me not how he compares to a Rockies player. The numbers can neutralize all they want to but it doesn't tell me what a player would do in a different place.

[Can_of_corn]

I get both of what you are saying. My basic point is how valuable is a player that doesn't play everyday? Like a no offense all defensive center in basketball who plays 20 minutes a game instead of 40? That player has value but how much. I am not doubting that Lough has value but is a late inning defender as valuable as an everyday player even if their WAR is the same.

I get what OPS+ does. I am just concerned if I am a GM how that player performs for me not how he compares to a Rockies player. The numbers can neutralize all they want to but it doesn't tell me what a player would do in a different place.

And are you sure that your scouts can do a better job?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I brought up Young, Snider and Markakis' WAR to this point in the season and how Young and Snider both rated better on defense than Nick, in another thread. They were about .9 WAR in total more than Nick with about 20 more PA's. Drungo basically said that it was too small of a sample. My point is it isn't like Lough played a bunch of innings last year compared to an everyday player. I agree he is a good defender and that is valuable I just question how much?

My point is I think hitters perform differently in different places. I think OPS+ has value, i just think hitters aren't robots who have the same OPS+ no matter where they play.

Yes, Young and Snider appear to have artficially high defensive ratings in small samples this year while Nicks appear to be closer to his norm. Yes, that would increase their WAR. Defensive numbers generally need to be looked at in 2-3 year increments. So. Yes it's a fair response to say that Snider/Young WAR is inflated based on past track record and considering sample size.

No players aren't robots but good players are good players in any park. Are the adjustments perfext. No. Generally players perform well after being traded to other teams. They are professionals. Maybe some guys need a change of scenery, but it's typically not the park. Some pitchers at Coors field might disagree I suppose.

[eddie83]

And are you sure that your scouts can do a better job?

I know he wasn't great for a long time here but the Orioles saw something in Hammel didn't they? The Cubs don't care what his ERA+ was in Oakland just that he keeps pitching well for them. I just think some hitters and pitchers are different in different spots. I think scouts see players that fit better in some spots. Are they always right, of course not? I am not saying that those numbers don't have value but I don't think that players are the same because their ERA of OPS+ says so.

[Herman]

Sabermetrics can't project whether or not a player remembers how many outs there are in an inning.

[Phantom]

Sabermetrics can't project whether or not a player remembers how many outs there are in an inning.

Well, not yet.

[PaulFolk]

Sabermetrics can't project whether or not a player remembers how many outs there are in an inning.

#hottakes

[Can_of_corn]

Sabermetrics can't project whether or not a player remembers how many outs there are in an inning.

I would be surprised to learn that teams didn't have some database that included information pertaining to baseball IQ.

[DrungoHazewood]

I would be surprised to learn that teams didn't have some database that included information pertaining to baseball IQ.

If you have a database that says Travis Snider has a baseball IQ of 70/100 that's useless made up drivel. But if you have a scouting report with some tobacco stains and fingerprints and a scribbled note that says Snider is a numbelnuts and can't think straight... well, that's something you can work with.