Would you sign Manny for 11/$231 mm?

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think that they'll part with both Urias and De Leon and trading Seager makes zero sense from their end.

You said A or B than you just dropped a C on me.

The Dodgers could certainly put together a package I would accept, Manny is a clear upgrade, and they could afford to lose the players short term.

If they would consider such a package an overpay is another matter entirely.

[Larry18]

You said A or B than you just dropped a C on me.

The Dodgers could certainly put together a package I would accept, Manny is a clear upgrade, and they could afford to lose the players short term.

If they would consider such a package an overpay is another matter entirely.

That is why I said you have to look at a trade from the other teams viewpoint. I put Seager in their because he is young, talented and has 6 years of team control, all factors the Orioles should look for in any trade.

[Can_of_corn]

That is why I said you have to look at a trade from the other teams viewpoint. I put Seager in their because he is young, talented and has 6 years of team control, all factors the Orioles should look for in any trade.

Depending on ownership's mindset I can see the Dodgers wanting to make the trade.

I wouldn't do it but if they feel a need to close the talent gap with the Cubs, this season, that is a way to do it.

And once again, they have the pieces to acquire Manny and it wouldn't weaken the 2016 squad.

[Larry18]

Depending on ownership's mindset I can see the Dodgers wanting to make the trade.

I wouldn't do it but if they feel a need to close the talent gap with the Cubs, this season, that is a way to do it.

And once again, they have the pieces to acquire Manny and it wouldn't weaken the 2016 squad.

I agree with that. But I also think they swallowed a lot of bad contracts to beef up their minor leagues and don't see them changing course for 2 years ( or 2 years plus a couple of months) of Manny.

That's why I think trading Manny or Harper or Trout isn't as easy as some think.

[Frobby]

I know this thread was made last year but $231 million won't even come close to re-signing Machado. You'll have to add $100 million to that offer along with an opt-out clause after five years to get Machado to re-sign long-term here.

I think you are right that $231 mm probably wouldn't be enough now. Still, Manny is 2.8 seasons away from free agency and you wouldn't necessarily have to pay him as much now as you would in 2019 as a free agent. For that reason, I'm not sure it would cost $331 mm to sign him.

No matter how you look at it, the Orioles blew it by not locking him up before now.

[Can_of_corn]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This includes the WAR already accumulated in '16. He'd need to finish the year w/10.1 WAR to beat out A-Rod for 1st <a href="https://t.co/k6aJaYfg2y">https://t.co/k6aJaYfg2y</a></p>— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) <a href="

">May 9, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[LC_O's_87]

I think you are right that $231 mm probably wouldn't be enough now. Still, Manny is 2.8 seasons away from free agency and you wouldn't necessarily have to pay him as much now as you would in 2019 as a free agent. For that reason, I'm not sure it would cost $331 mm to sign him.

No matter how you look at it, the Orioles blew it by not locking him up before now.

Hindsight, man. If it was your check book are you going to stroke a big check to a kid who's had knee ligament repairs in both knees before he's 23? And if your Manny's agent are you going to accept a low ball extension when your client's value is probably at the lowest it will ever be?

I can see both sides. Maybe Angelos doesn't believe the market will bear the $300+ million contracts that are being tossed about for Harper and Machado? Maybe the Orioles think the Marlins grossly overpaid Stanton and bid against themselves.

[LookitsPuck]

Hindsight' date=' man. If it was your check book are you going to stroke a big check to a kid who's had knee ligament repairs in both knees before he's 23? And if your Manny's agent are you going to accept a low ball extension when your client's value is probably at the lowest it will ever be?

I can see both sides. Maybe Angelos doesn't believe the market will bear the $300+ million contracts that are being tossed about for Harper and Machado? Maybe the Orioles think the Marlins grossly overpaid Stanton and bid against themselves.[/quote']

When have the O's ever been proactive in signing young talent? Adam Jones seems like the only one. They've typically been very reactionary.

[LC_O's_87]

When have the O's ever been proactive in signing young talent? Adam Jones seems like the only one. They've typically been very reactionary.

They haven't really had this type of situation since Mike Mussina, and I'm not expert enough to know the in's and out's of the contract system in place back then and whether teams were buying out arb years with extensions or trading guys who wouldn't extend.

What other great young talent have they let hit the FA market that I'm missing?

[El Gordo]

If you trade Manny this fall that's telling the fan base you aren't in win now mode. What kind of hit does the box office take? On the other hand keeping him is a box office and marketing draw and keeps the hope of a WS alive. On the third hand, Manny might be worth 15 W over the last two years of arb and I think you might get 3 or 4 guys in trade worth more than that over the next 6 years of control. Look what the Bedard trade brought back in value.

[El Gordo]

I doubt Manny can expect more than 40 M AAV in FA. He probably gets about 25 M in the last two years in Arb. So offer him 4 years at 110-120 M. He would be making more than he would if he just did the last two years of arb and went FA, and would still be young enough for a big pay day after the contract is up. Sort of like an opt out, with out the additional years after.

[Frobby]

I doubt Manny can expect more than 40 M AAV in FA.

Considering that the highest AAV in the history of the sport is $34.4 mm (Greinke), this seems like as pretty safe bet, even though there will be salary inflation over the next three years. There are only five players in MLB making $30mm+ AAV (Greinke/Cabrera/Price/Kershaw/Scherzer). Only Greinke exceeds $31 mm/yr. I think people are going a bit overboard in projecting what Manny will make.

[jjnono]

It was tough to choose "no," as I think Manny is possibly the best combination of offense and defense in the majors. But barring some new source of revenue, I can't see such a signing do anything other than ruin the O's financially for a long time... The ink is barely dry on the Davis deal. No idea how that's going to look...

[LookitsPuck]

Considering that the highest AAV in the history of the sport is $34.4 mm (Greinke), this seems like as pretty safe bet, even though there will be salary inflation over the next three years. There are only five players in MLB making $30mm+ AAV (Greinke/Cabrera/Price/Kershaw/Scherzer). Only Greinke exceeds $31 mm/yr. I think people are going a bit overboard in projecting what Manny will make.

Are they?

Nearly 7 WAR in 2013, on pace for 5 WAR in 2014 until he got hurt, 7 WAR in 2015, and will most likely exceed 7 WAR this year. He's 23.

He's easily one of the best players in the game right now. And he's young as hell. Wouldn't shock me one bit to see him in the $30mm+ AAV range.

[jjnono]

Are they?

Nearly 7 WAR in 2013, on pace for 5 WAR in 2014 until he got hurt, 7 WAR in 2015, and will most likely exceed 7 WAR this year. He's 23.

He's easily one of the best players in the game right now. And he's young as hell. Wouldn't shock me one bit to see him in the $30mm+ AAV range.

I should point out that I could also see him getting $30MM a year at some point. I'd just have to scale that back to 5-7 years for the O's with a team opt out around year 4-5.