Kiley McDaniel Prospect Chat: Answers Questions On Reyes and Mancini

[Rene88]

He can handle 1B, but he's probably not going to win any Gold Gloves.

He's worlds better than Brandon Snyder:)

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[TINSTAAPP]

That is twice in about a week that we've heard that Mancini has a "slow bat/long swing". We know that Brandon Snyder, Joe Mahoney and Christian Walker all had strong moments at Bowie and then did not replicate that success at higher levels - and the scouting community was generally, correctly, unimpressed with those three. I provided the Judge comp a bit ago and think it will be interesting to track Mancini and Judge going forward. I am surprised to hear of the confidence of Judge prospect status given his strikeout rate at age 23.

If Mancini does pan out, I think there will be lots of crow for the scouting to community to eat. They clearly overlooked him in his draft and they continue to play down his bat despite superior results. Mancini sure is generating a lot of xbhs for a guy with a 'longish swing'.

Meanwhile, it seems the Os want Mancini to stay with Bowie in their playoff quest instead of getting him to Norfolk for 100 bats there. I assume we will see Mancini in September in Bmore.

Judge has a far better walk rate though. Judge has a career minor league walk rate of 13.2% while Mancini's career walk rate is only at 5.3%. Judge also has more raw power. He has four more HRs in almost 350 fewer plate appearances. Neither will probably amount to much but it's very understandable why people are higher on Judge.

[sportsfan8703]

When you're 23 years old, does your draft status mean anything as far as your potential? Then he goes on to say that he should have gotten more attention from scouts. To me, that sounds like he's talking out of both sides of his mouth to cover all possible outcomes so he can later say I told ya so.

Yeah why does his draft stock matter? I'm feeling a little hate from the "prospect" experts because they didn't have him highly rated in their mock drafts. The dude did leave school early. So if he stays and extra year at Notre Dame and goes in the 3rd rd, he's a better player. These lists are lame.

[eb45]

Yeah why does his draft stock matter? I'm feeling a little hate from the "prospect" experts because they didn't have him highly rated in their mock drafts. The dude did leave school early. So if he stays and extra year at Notre Dame and goes in the 3rd rd, he's a better player. These lists are lame.

The MLB draft isn't really like any other sport's draft in that there's not a lot to be gained by staying in school an extra year. He'd almost certainly have gone later if he'd stayed another year and then would be even more likely to be considered an org guy. Kiley mentions having seen him since he was at Notre Dame (in fact, he used to work for the Orioles so maybe he contributed to the O's taking him), so I think it's more likely that he hasn't seen the adjustments Mancini's made and is going off a scouting report from last year or earlier. It's hard to really fault him for that since he was answering a question and probably just used the most recent info he had. I don't think there's any way anybody's feeling a grudge about a mock draft (and plus, Kiley said he thought Mancini should have gone higher).

[Ruzious]

One thing that differentiates him from Brandon Snyder, Joe Mahoney, and Christian Walker is he doesn't strike out as much - which I think often speaks to the need for players to cut down on their swing. He doesn't seem to have that need compared to the others. In AA ball, Snyder struck out 23.9% of his plate appearances, Mahoney 21,8, Walker 19.4, and Mancini 15.0 so far.

[MachoMachadoMan]

Before it gets lost, just want to highlight the Jomar Reyes :: Miguel Sano comp. Yes, please.

Reyes isn't near Sano on walk rate, but that may have more to do with pitchers explicitly pitching around Sano due to his power than it does a superior command of the strike zone. Sano mashed 28 homers (550 at bats) in A-ball at 19 and Reyes won't come close to that rate this year in A-ball while being a year younger.

It is funny to remember Sano being signed as a big, power hitting shortstop. Now he's 6-4, 260 and primarily a DH at just 22 years old, though he could probably be a first baseman were Mauer not to have that spot. As Reyes keeps growing, hopefully he retains the ability to be a productive defensive player.

[LookinUp]

Re: Sano - Remember when the O's were courting him, he was wearing O's hats, etc., and then the Twins signed him for like $3.0 million? This place went crazy. I did too. Really regret not going there.

Re: Judge - IIRC, his draft profile was pretty much what was written here. Huge power. Big holes in his swing. Not much positional value. Basically looked like a Davis/Reynolds type if his BB rates would hold up. That's why he fell deep into the first round instead of going top 10. Holes in his swing. Personally, I think it's rich to think he'll turn into either and he's really getting over-hyped because he's a Yankees prospect. The power is intoxicating though.

Re: Mancini - love the reports from RZ and EB here. Keep them coming. It sounds like he could have a solid-average bat, but the jury's still out.

Re: Reyes - He's really young, but my fingers are crossed. One of the highest upside bats we've had in a long time, and maybe the single highest upside bat that wasn't picked top 15.

[eb45]

Two hits for Mancini already tonight off two-time first-round pick Tyler Beede, one of them a home run. Good chance some scouts were in attendance.

[Slade-OH]

Two hits for Mancini already tonight off two-time first-round pick Tyler Beede, one of them a home run. Good chance some scouts were in attendance.

The man just doesn't stop hitting. Big time performance.

I agree 100% with you on Kiley going off an old report on Mancini. He even said as much in the prospect chat, that he hasn't had a chance to update prospect lists for each team yet but will be working on that in the coming weeks. So my guess is he was relying on info from his preseason Orioles prospect list. I'm curious if his opinion changes when he updates the list.

[oceanicvoyage]

Are there any good comps for mancini in the majors?

Lucas Duda is the only comp that I could think of. Both college guys who were late round picks. Minor league numbers are in the same ball park at similar ages and levels. Duda walks more, but Mancini has higher slugging. Also, one is right and the other left handed. Good comp?