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Kiley McDaniel Prospect Chat: Answers Questions On Reyes and Mancini


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Q: I know he's only 18 and in his first full season in A... but is Jomar Reyes worth getting excited about? A lot of local guys have been talking up his quick progress at Delmarva, to be hitting as well as he is and with a (likely) power increase to come.

McDaniel: Upside is huge. Massive raw power and huge kid with some feel to hit. There's a chance it ends up something like Miguel Sano, but obviously isn't at that top 25 prospect in baseball level yet.

Q: Trey Mancini having a huge breakout season in the Orioles farm system. What do you know about him? Could he develop into a starting first baseman?

McDaniel: Don't think so. Long frame and longish swing but has plus raw and is hitting more than expected; I'd guess platoon bat, but that's way more than his draft status would suggest. I liked him back to his days batting behind Jagielo in college and wondered why he didn't get more attention from scouts.

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What would be a current or recent example of a "platoon bat" first baseman? It seems to me that if you are limited defensively to 1B, then either you are a major league starter or you are not in the major leagues for very long. Steve Pearce or Ty Wigginton come to mind as "platoon type" hitters but they had the ability to play other positions besides 1B.

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When you're 23 years old, does your draft status mean anything as far as your potential? Then he goes on to say that he should have gotten more attention from scouts. To me, that sounds like he's talking out of both sides of his mouth to cover all possible outcomes so he can later say I told ya so.

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When you're 23 years old, does your draft status mean anything as far as your potential? Then he goes on to say that he should have gotten more attention from scouts. To me, that sounds like he's talking out of both sides of his mouth to cover all possible outcomes so he can later say I told ya so.

That was what I felt like after reading this...a possible platoon bat, but should have received more attention. You nailed it.

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That is twice in about a week that we've heard that Mancini has a "slow bat/long swing". We know that Brandon Snyder, Joe Mahoney and Christian Walker all had strong moments at Bowie and then did not replicate that success at higher levels - and the scouting community was generally, correctly, unimpressed with those three. I provided the Judge comp a bit ago and think it will be interesting to track Mancini and Judge going forward. I am surprised to hear of the confidence of Judge prospect status given his strikeout rate at age 23.

If Mancini does pan out, I think there will be lots of crow for the scouting to community to eat. They clearly overlooked him in his draft and they continue to play down his bat despite superior results. Mancini sure is generating a lot of xbhs for a guy with a 'longish swing'.

Meanwhile, it seems the Os want Mancini to stay with Bowie in their playoff quest instead of getting him to Norfolk for 100 bats there. I assume we will see Mancini in September in Bmore.

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I wonder how recently he's seen Mancini. I'm just going off film, but he looks to have shortened his load considerably while adding some barrel lag. His swing was "longish" when he was in college and when I saw him a couple summers back, but I don't know that that's the case now.

Comparing him to Judge isn't really fair, though, because Judge has ridiculous power. The strikeouts have to be a concern, but dude hits the ball a mile. Mancini isn't that kind of player.

e: I think that if Mancini pans out, it'll be the result of a lot of work from both himself and the O's development staff. Sometimes players get better. That doesn't mean the initial assessment of them was wrong. When Mancini was drafted, everyone said "there's tools here, but he's not harnessing them like you'd want to see from a college bat." The fact that he's started to harness them doesn't mean everyone was wrong for saying he wasn't harnessing them before.

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eb, can you speak to raw power and how it can be projected at the major league level (for Judge) versus the superior xbhs that Mancini is generating at the same level?

There's always more upside with a guy with tremendous raw power. And a power hitter doesn't have to be as consistent making contact to be valuable. I'm not really saying that one profile is necessarily better or more likely to succeed, but Judge and Mancini are very different players.

And RZ, thanks for the article. Glad to hear confirmation that he's changed his mechanics at the plate. I was starting to wonder if my eyes were deceiving me, because I kept reading people talking about him like he was the same player who fell to the eighth round. I can't say that I think he'll be a success at the ML level, but I think there's more of a possibility now than there was even just a year ago.

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Would like to have heard a little more positive feedback on Mancini. Aaron Judge and Mancini are both 23. Judge was a first round pick and on a lot of prospect lists. Yet, his stats suggest more swing and miss and some real doubts as he progresses towards the majors. Mancini has maintained a 1:6 strikeouts to AB ratio as he's risen through the minors. So, his "longish swing" has certainly not been exploited as of yet. Judge on the other hand struck out 70 times in 250 AB's in AA and it's even worse in AAA with 42 K's in 130 AB's as his production has fallen as well. This is similar to what happened to Christian Walker last year. No doubt, Judge will be considered the better prospect by everyone. Yet Mancini has outproduced him significantly at the same age(23)/level (AA) and his stats (strikeout ratio) suggest he should progress better. Judge showed better patience in AA (24 BB's in 250 AB's) to Mancini's (13 in 226 AB's), but is that enough to offset the clearly better hit tool and contact ability?

Honestly, I didn't see a long swing when I've seen him at Bowie this year. Perhaps he's made some adjustments? A lot of analysts who have to cover all teams will not be able to always back up the nuances and will fall back on draft status. Not saying McDaniel does this, just saying this is why you will get those kinds of reports sometimes.

I kind of like what I've seen from Mancini offensively this year but I haven't been able to talk to my scouting network yet about him.

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Honestly, I didn't see a long swing when I've seen him at Bowie this year. Perhaps he's made some adjustments? A lot of analysts who have to cover all teams will not be able to always back up the nuances and will fall back on draft status. Not saying McDaniel does this, just saying this is why you will get those kinds of reports sometimes.

I kind of like what I've seen from Mancini offensively this year but I haven't been able to talk to my scouting network yet about him.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/149248-Video-Trey-Mancini-7-23-15

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/47-7POWxZBA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

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Honestly, I didn't see a long swing when I've seen him at Bowie this year. Perhaps he's made some adjustments? A lot of analysts who have to cover all teams will not be able to always back up the nuances and will fall back on draft status. Not saying McDaniel does this, just saying this is why you will get those kinds of reports sometimes.

I kind of like what I've seen from Mancini offensively this year but I haven't been able to talk to my scouting network yet about him.

Well get on the stick Tony! :)

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