Duquette on Re-signing Davis and Offseason Priorities

[turtlebowl]

That math doesn't work. $3 per ticket at current attendance raises about an additional $7.5M a year. Or enough to pay for half of Nelson Cruz' salary, or maybe a third of a year of a Manny extension or Davis contract. Or maybe enough to pay Darren O'Day. And that's before the consideration that raising prices probably lowers demand, so you're probably going to see flat revenues after the increase. As I said elsewhere, you have to assume that prices are currently set to maximize revenues.

Lets just say that the Orioles announced today that they were raising ticket prices next year. Obviously you are going to get a negative reaction by most. Let's advance to the winter meetings and lets say they sign Davis and Price. I have to believe that the excitement initially would keep the attendance stable or maybe even increase it that first season. After that who knows, that where the risk factor comes into play. And as you also said tickets are only 1 source. Excitement means higher tv ratings and advertising dollars. Plus even though it is likely a smaller part of the pie more shirts, hats and whatever else should be sold.

[DrungoHazewood]

Lets just say that the Orioles announced today that they were raising ticket prices next year. Obviously you are going to get a negative reaction by most. Let's advance to the winter meetings and lets say they sign Davis and Price. I have to believe that the excitement initially would keep the attendance stable or maybe even increase it that first season. After that who knows, that where the risk factor comes into play. And as you also said tickets are only 1 source. Excitement means higher tv ratings and advertising dollars. Plus even though it is likely a smaller part of the pie more shirts, hats and whatever else should be sold.

Excitement about off-field things is very short-term. Winning is the only near-guarantee.

[abbott]

That math doesn't work. $3 per ticket at current attendance raises about an additional $7.5M a year. Or enough to pay for half of Nelson Cruz' salary, or maybe a third of a year of a Manny extension or Davis contract. Or maybe enough to pay Darren O'Day. And that's before the consideration that raising prices probably lowers demand, so you're probably going to see flat revenues after the increase. As I said elsewhere, you have to assume that prices are currently set to maximize revenues.

The real problem is that Orioles do not receive sufficent money for MASN in exchange for the rights to broadcast the games. The Orioles draw pretty good ratings on MASN but are not compensated eough. Without the Orioles, MASN loses big time. If only the Orioles were allowed to shop their cable broadcast rights to competitive bidding, the O's might realize anouther 10-25 million a year.

The fact is that the Orioles do not own MASN, the 2 are seperte companies with elements of common ownership. MASN is immensley profitable, receiving a couple of dollars per moth for every home that has it. Without subjecting the Orioles broadcast eights to an open market and capitalism, the Orioles will always remain under compensated. Instead of MASN being used to make the Orioles a big budget franchise, the Orioles make MASN a gold mine with an oil well underneath.

[turtlebowl]

Excitement about off-field things is very short-term. Winning is the only near-guarantee.

Absolutely agree!! This is where the owners personality comes into play and makes my argument. They will not make any type of splash moves because long term it is way to unpredictable. Anyone remember Albert Bell? We have been set on a safe course and the idea of going all in occasionally is not likely to happen. Another owner that has a different agenda could look at things differently on a case by case basis. Angelo's is not that guy anymore. Somewhere a formula has been set to determine what the payroll is going to be and that is probably a situation that is not negotiable.

[mdbdotcom]

The way to sign Davis is to offer him a 7-year deal with an opt-out after three, and defer $6 million of each year's salary so that it is paid over a fourteen year period after the contract ends. A 7/140 offer becomes 7/98, followed by 14/42.

[DrungoHazewood]

The real problem is that Orioles do not receive sufficent money for MASN in exchange for the rights to broadcast the games. The Orioles draw pretty good ratings on MASN but are not compensated eough. Without the Orioles, MASN loses big time. If only the Orioles were allowed to shop their cable broadcast rights to competitive bidding, the O's might realize anouther 10-25 million a year.The fact is that the Orioles do not own MASN, the 2 are seperte companies with elements of common ownership. MASN is immensley profitable, receiving a couple of dollars per moth for every home that has it. Without subjecting the Orioles broadcast eights to an open market and capitalism, the Orioles will always remain under compensated. Instead of MASN being used to make the Orioles a big budget franchise, the Orioles make MASN a gold mine with an oil well underneath.

The Orioles ownership also owns MASN. It's the same people. It's like saying the Trump Tower Corp and Trump Casino Corp are two different businesses*. If MASN isn't giving the Orioles enough revenues there is no one to blame but themselves. Well, and the Baltimore-Washington market.

* I expect someone to explain in small words why this is an inappropriate and inaccurate analogy.

[El Gordo]

Wow. Talk about over-hyperbolizing (is that a word) someone's post because you disagree with it. Can't you simply explain why you disagree without distorting what the poster was saying? Saying that someone "should be a Yankee fan" because you disagree with them goes beyond civil discussion on an Orioles topic.

These are his salient if not sentient points, I take it you agree with them:

1) I really don't care about the price of a dang hot dog, I care about winning.(Wasn't talking about hot dogs I was talking about affordable ticket prices

2) Affordable family entertainment? It's all a joke. If you're counting pennies, then taking family to an OS game is already out of your budget.(In other word only wealthy people who don't have to concern themselves with a budget should take their kids to a ballgame?)

3) Relatively speaking, MLB games are already NOT affordable fam entertainment,( Seems like it a lot cheaper to take your kids to OPACY than Disney World.)

4) And referencing Papelbon and arod as making the game unwatchable by children... Did you just move to Baltimore? Try explaining to your kids why we played a game in an empty stadium because the city was rioting and it's not safe to be at the park.( I would like to know what this has to do with the team having suitable role models for your kids. Talk about hyberbole.:rolleyestf:

[Going Underground]

The Orioles had cheaper tickets then most teams when they lost 14 year's in a row.Family entertainment or not and cheap prices and you win 70 games and attendance will drop.Attendance was over 3 million and then below two.That was a ton of lost revenue.

[Can_of_corn]

The Orioles had cheaper tickets then most teams when they lost 14 year's in a row.Family entertainment or not and cheap prices and you win 70 games and attendance will drop.Attendance was over 3 million and then below two.That was a ton of lost revenue.

And there wasn't a team just down the street, and then there was.

There are more factors in the decline of attendance then just the product on the field.

[El Gordo]

The Orioles had cheaper tickets then most teams when they lost 14 year's in a row.Family entertainment or not and cheap prices and you win 70 games and attendance will drop.Attendance was over 3 million and then below two.That was a ton of lost revenue.

If you want to sign Price and Davis, then you either have to operate the team at a loss for a few years and hope winning increases revenues eventually, or you have to raise ticket prices 15 bucks a pop and hope winning will keep the fans coming.

[DrungoHazewood]

And there wasn't a team just down the street, and then there was.

There are more factors in the decline of attendance then just the product on the field.

One of the most important was the OPACY was a sensation. People from all over the area got in line buy season tickets to the coolest ballpark ever. I was on the waiting list, and I'm two hours away, there's no way I'd have made a quarter of the games. That effect was muted with each successive season, when everybody got their own new mallpark.

[Luper2207]

Why should ticket prices have to be raised in order to bring in more revenue? The orioles attendance bottomed out in 2010 and because of winning has risen steadily. This season the average attendance was just shy of 30k per game. 10k more fans per game at current ticket prices/food costs would be a great increase in revenue.

The frustration with the orioles brass is that they always seem to make excuses about why it isnt the right time to spend money on long term vets. Angelos/Duquette are so risk adverse they end up wasting money on longshots rather than investing in the more expensive but safer players.

For example: The orioles wasted (of the top of my head so not exact) 5+ million on de aza, 2+ million on everth cabrera, brian matusz 3+ million, travis sniders salary, etc

I would like the team to invest in free agency and build around machado, jones, schoop. Wieters and Chen get QOs and are gone. Davis should be signed longterm. Machado should be extended. I like jason Heyward but I have no idea how he will be valued. I think the orioles could offer him a big contract but back load it. Then offer him an opt out after 3 or 4 years. He would most likely take the opt out and the orioles would have then paid him less than market value for his best seasons.

[Going Underground]

And there wasn't a team just down the street, and then there was.

There are more factors in the decline of attendance then just the product on the field.

Attendance went from 3.2 or so to 2.6 before the Nationals were even in Baltimore. Attendance went from 1.7 to 2.4 even with the Nationals down the road. Winning brought the fans back

[Can_of_corn]

Why should ticket prices have to be raised in order to bring in more revenue? The orioles attendance bottomed out in 2010 and because of winning has risen steadily. This season the average attendance was just shy of 30k per game. 10k more fans per game at current ticket prices/food costs would be a great increase in revenue.

The frustration with the orioles brass is that they always seem to make excuses about why it isnt the right time to spend money on long term vets. Angelos/Duquette are so risk adverse they end up wasting money on longshots rather than investing in the more expensive but safer players.

For example: The orioles wasted (of the top of my head so not exact) 5+ million on de aza, 2+ million on everth cabrera, brian matusz 3+ million, travis sniders salary, etc

I would like the team to invest in free agency and build around machado, jones, schoop. Wieters and Chen get QOs and are gone. Davis should be signed longterm. Machado should be extended. I like jason Heyward but I have no idea how he will be valued. I think the orioles could offer him a big contract but back load it. Then offer him an opt out after 3 or 4 years. He would most likely take the opt out and the orioles would have then paid him less than market value for his best seasons.

What makes you think they can get an additional 10K a game? Doesn't that seem a bit ambitious of a goal?

[Can_of_corn]

Attendance went from 3.2 or so to 2.6 before the Nationals were even in Baltimore. Attendance went from 1.7 to 2.4 even with the Nationals down the road. Winning brought the fans back

Some of them sure.

Not all of them.

And not a lot of the businesses and Government types that buy boxes and blocks of seats.

The overall pool from which tickets are purchased has been diminished.