Can_of_corn Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 He had a 1.9 rWAR season despite spending the winter having neck surgery. With a healthy offseason, he'll be stronger next year, his arm will be better, and it will offset whatever regression in his BABIP occurs. That's my prediction. But, this year, he had no power, was poor defensively ( I know, those pesky metrics you don't trust) and his BABIP was unsustainably high. Me, I think his power will get a slight bump, his defense will stay bad and his BABIP will normalize. I am guessing about 1.2 rWAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frobby Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 But, this year, he had no power, was poor defensively ( I know, those pesky metrics you don't trust) and his BABIP was unsustainably high.Me, I think his power will get a slight bump, his defense will stay bad and his BABIP will normalize. I am guessing about 1.2 rWAR I didn't see enough of Markakis this year to question his defensive metrics. I do know that his arm was not as good this year as it usually is, as measured by assists or hold rates. I think he'll do better in that regard next year, but I'm just guessing at that (and everything else). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDtransplant757 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I'd take him back if atlanta ate a good chunk of his salary. Good bet on the O's part we trade someone like Matuz out of here to get him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 The only way the Orioles should consider it is if they basically get him for nothing and Atlanta eats about half of his remaining contract. If you get it down to say around 18 million over 3 years .....If Nick puts up say a total of 3.0 to 3.5 WAR over the next two years combined which is not crazy to think he could, your coming out of it ok in terms of value. My guess is if the Braves pay enough of the contract to make it worth acquiring him though, they will want more than we want to give up in return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horsepower Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Markakis was not and is not a "poor defensive player" as some would try to lead people to believe on this board. He would be much welcomed back in Bmore and it would be nice to have someone on base for all those solo homes we hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reboulet'sStache Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Please no. Leave Markakis in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Can_of_corn Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Markakis was not and is not a "poor defensive player" as some would try to lead people to believe on this board. He would be much welcomed back in Bmore and it would be nice to have someone on base for all those solo homes we hit. Yep, you caught me. My hatred is so great I hacked the various websites and changed the stats for Markakis' defense. I also hacked the MASN, ESPN and MLB channel feeds and slowed down the footage of him running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Yep, you caught me. My hatred is so great I hacked the various websites and changed the stats for Markakis' defense. I also hacked the MASN, ESPN and MLB channel feeds and slowed down the footage of him running. I think superimposing Forrest Gump running with braces while Nick was playing the outfield, might have been just a tad over the top don't ya think? The Frankenstein bolt coming out of his neck, little tasteless. Shame on you COC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reboulet'sStache Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 The amount of Markakis threads during his last year were fun. The amount of Markakis threads there would be when he is a .5 to .8 WAR player but Buck is sending him out there everyday would crash this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrungoHazewood Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 The amount of Markakis threads during his last year were fun. The amount of Markakis threads there would be when he is a .5 to .8 WAR player but Buck is sending him out there everyday would crash this site. Do you remember B.J. Surhoff, Part Deaux? Or Raffy II, Electric Boogaloo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frobby Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Do you remember B.J. Surhoff, Part Deaux? Or Raffy II, Electric Boogaloo? How old were they compared to Markakis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrungoHazewood Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 How old were they compared to Markakis? Older. But more importantly, how good were they compared to Markakis? Before Raffy's reunion he was worth 4.2, 4.5, and 2.7 wins. Surhoff was more comparable, being a 2.4, 0.7, and 0.3 (in only 25 games) win player. But in both cases the Orioles were a team in need of an infusion of young talent and they used the return of popular veterans to temporarily plug holes that could have been plugged with similar performance using far cheaper players. You put the team in an awkward situation when you sign on for the decline years of a popular player. It's rare that the player's expectations for role and playing time match his declining skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frobby Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Older. But more importantly, how good were they compared to Markakis? Before Raffy's reunion he was worth 4.2, 4.5, and 2.7 wins. Surhoff was more comparable, being a 2.4, 0.7, and 0.3 (in only 25 games) win player. But in both cases the Orioles were a team in need of an infusion of young talent and they used the return of popular veterans to temporarily plug holes that could have been plugged with similar performance using far cheaper players. You put the team in an awkward situation when you sign on for the decline years of a popular player. It's rare that the player's expectations for role and playing time match his declining skills. I still don't think the analogy is very apt, for multiple reasons. Surhoff had only played 25 games the year before he rejoined the Orioles and he was 38 years old. The O's were coming off a 67-win season. He was signed for $1 mm, and really wasn't expected to play that much. I really don't think he took at bats away from younger players; rather, other guys got hurt or badly underperformed and so Surhoff filled holes and did a very competent job of it (for 2003-04; he finally spit the bit in 2005, at age 40). Raffy was 39 when he joined the Orioles, coming off a 71-win season. The O's made their big push that offseason (signing Tejada, Lopez, Ponson and Raffy) and hoped they could jump from being a poor team to a contender with those moves. But Raffy dropped pretty precipitously at age 39 (though he wasn't awful), Ponson disappointed and some of the younger guys didn't step up as the O's had hoped. I just think it is wrong to compare a 32-year old player (Markakis' age next season) with a 38- or 39-year old, in terms of the likelihood of a steep decline. Also, the O's are in a different competitive position than those teams, having been in the playoffs two of the last four years and winning 81 games (not 67 or 71) last year. I guess I need to say it again -- I don't particularly advocate trying to bring Nick back here. I just don't like this particular analogy, just like I didn't like the Huff, Millar or BRob analogies elsewhere in this thread. Nick is likely to be a solid player over the next three years IMO. He'd probably be worth 3/$33 mm to some team. But it's probably more than we can afford, given our other needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birrman54 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Markakis was not and is not a "poor defensive player" as some would try to lead people to believe on this board. He would be much welcomed back in Bmore and it would be nice to have someone on base for all those solo homes we hit. Well a home run or triple are basically the only ways Nick can score from first. Nick's wOBA trends are only going in one direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roll Tide Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 But, this year, he had no power, was poor defensively ( I know, those pesky metrics you don't trust) and his BABIP was unsustainably high.Me, I think his power will get a slight bump, his defense will stay bad and his BABIP will normalize. I am guessing about 1.2 rWAR I know that Nick was a good RF when he was younger. I know that there is some drop off due to age. I refuse to believe he's a poor defender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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