Jump to content

Yeah Hernandez!!!!!!


GotNitro

Recommended Posts

This has been the argument the entire offseason: whether the runs prevented by Hernandez's defense overcome the (negative) runs created by his bat.

Doesn't it seem like some folks act like they never heard it before?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 322
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Actually it is a hypothesis based on stats and common sense.

Tejada is clearly the better player and clearly gives the team more wins than LH.

You can choose to ignore that if you want..That is your perogative but you are completely wrong and look very foolish saying otherwise.

We have a whole season to sit back and see how LH does and how the team does. I for one intend to watch the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually it is a hypothesis based on stats and common sense.

Tejada is clearly the better player and clearly gives the team more wins than LH.

You can choose to ignore that if you want..That is your perogative but you are completely wrong and look very foolish saying otherwise.

Tejada is the better hitter. I would be foolish to argue that. However, you or anyone else is foolish if you think Tajada is a better fielder. Tejada has no business trying to play ML shorstop anymore. LH, Fahey, and even Chris Gomez proved last season they played it better. So you are letting your bias towards favoring offense cloud your judgement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tejada is the better hitter. I would be foolish to argue that. However, you or anyone else is foolish if you think Tajada is a better fielder. Tejada has no business trying to play ML shorstop anymore. LH, Fahey, and even Chris Gomez proved last season they played it better. So you are letting your bias towards favoring offense cloud your judgement.

The total runs created by Tejada (including offense and defense) are going to be more then runs created by Hernandez.

Not sure why this is so hard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guthrie started 26 games last year...In those games, the Orioles were 10-16...That is a winning percentage of .384.

DCab started 34 games...In those games, the Orioles were 13-21 for a .382 winning percentage.

Trax started 25 games for the orioles last year and the team went 9-16...That is a winning % of 36%.

So, by OldFan's logic, Trachsel and DCab were as good(or very close to as good) as Guthrie was last year.

Raise your hand if you believe that to be true.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tejada is the better hitter. I would be foolish to argue that. However, you or anyone else is foolish if you think Tajada is a better fielder. Tejada has no business trying to play ML shorstop anymore. LH, Fahey, and even Chris Gomez proved last season they played it better. So you are letting your bias towards favoring offense cloud your judgement.

It would be foolish to think Miggy is a better fielder but its also foolish to think he can't play SS anymore.

Again, whether you want to believe it or not, Miggy falls somewhere between slightly below average to slightly above average defensively and has throughout his career.

His average defense and well above average bat makes him a much much better player than LH is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We're dealing with sample sizes that are too small to use for a reasonable evaluation of Hernandez, so why is anyone trying to argue any point?

All I know is I'm happy that the O's have won 4 or their first 5 games, and Luis has been a large contributor in some of those wins.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We're dealing with sample sizes that are too small to use for a reasonable evaluation of Hernandez, so why is anyone trying to argue any point?

All I know is I'm happy that the O's have won 4 or their first 5 games, and Luis has been largely responsible for 2 of those wins.

If you only want to look at what he did right, this would be correct.

Of course, there is the lack of getting on base, no power and no hits that hurt the team as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The total runs created by Tejada (including offense and defense) are going to be more then runs created by Hernandez.

Not sure why this is so hard.

We have been through this before. Your stats don't measure this correctly. For example you cannot assume a double play but when LH is out there I assume he will make the play most of the time and Tejada I always am surprised if he turns it.

The botched taylor made DP balls by Tejada where they got only one out are immeasurable in mere stats and I believe did untold damage to the pitchers who had their morale negatively impacted more by his ineptitude on defense than his proficiency on offense. You gather this by watching and observing not by burying your nose in a stats book.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guthrie started 26 games last year...In those games, the Orioles were 10-16...That is a winning percentage of .384.

DCab started 34 games...In those games, the Orioles were 13-21 for a .382 winning percentage.

Trax started 25 games for the orioles last year and the team went 9-16...That is a winning % of 36%.

So, by OldFan's logic, Trachsel and DCab were as good(or very close to as good) as Guthrie was last year.

Raise your hand if you believe that to be true.

Nice work.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We have been through this before. Your stats don't measure this correctly. For example you cannot assume a double play but when LH is out there I assume he will make the play most of the time and Tejada I always am surprised if he turns it.

Now you aren't making any sense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We have been through this before. Your stats don't measure this correctly. For example you cannot assume a double play but when LH is out there I assume he will make the play most of the time and Tejada I always am surprised if he turns it.

Oh ok...So, you just want to pick things out of the air because it is what you believe?

You don't care about stats, facts or proof? Just what you want to think and that's it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now you aren't making any sense.

I will slow it down for you. Botched DP balls are not recorded as errors if you get one out, as you cannot assume a double play. Tejada was the worst (or best at botching them) I have ever seen. Since he usually made the force at the base getting one out after fumbling the ball it did not show up as an error but it was a morale killer and inning extender that often led to losses.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh ok...So, you just want to pick things out of the air because it is what you believe?

You don't care about stats, facts or proof? Just what you want to think and that's it?

No, my eyes and observation skills easily tell me Tejada was deficient at turning routine DP balls compared to even average ML shortstops. In other words he was fourth best on the team at making a routine DP last season which is abysmal and is why he is gone. He was so bad he had to be moved or traded. Even the Orioles infield coach last season publicly remarked about Tejada's obvioius problem with the ball from his glove when turning a routine DP. You would have to bury your head in the sand like an ostrich not to have seen it last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • Posts

    • Basallo is currently ranked 69th in OPS at AA, which includes stats from people that are no longer at that level (including those that were demoted, promoted, etc.).  Average age of players above Basallo: 24 He's the youngest. But here's the breakdown of those above him (minimum 50 PA): 20: 3 21: 9 22: 10 23: 10 24: 11 25: 15 26: 7 27: 1 28: 2 OPS by age group for everybody that qualifies in PA (at least 50): (ref: https://milbtracker.com/hitter-stats?levels[0]=AA&sort=ops&sort_direction=desc&org=&timeframe=2024&min_walk_percentage=0&max_strike_out_percentage=100&paginate=50&page=1) AGE OPS 18 0.544 19 0.800 20 0.747 21 0.734 22 0.701 23 0.677 24 0.664 25 0.682 26 0.682 27 0.620 28 0.686 29 0.652 30 0.588 31 0.676 Breakdown by age: AGE COUNT PERCENTAGE 18 1 0.22% 19 1 0.22% 20 7 1.56% 21 31 6.92% 22 55 12.28% 23 83 18.53% 24 86 19.20% 25 88 19.64% 26 51 11.38% 27 21 4.69% 28 7 1.56% 29 11 2.46% 30 3 0.67% 31 3 0.67% I mean, 90% of the league is aged 21-27 with 60% of the league being aged 23-25.  Basallo is putting up a comparable OPS to the upper echelon of hitters overall. And is OPSing better than *every age group* on average!  The kid is special. At age 20, Gunnar put up an 826 OPS across A, A+, AA. At age 18, Basallo put up a 953 OPS across A, A+, AA.
    • I don't agree at all. In the majors maybe, but not in AAA. Just my opinion. 
    • Oops missed your reference.  I agree it’s a great article. 
    • From a great analytics article on Mayo and Holliday in Baseball America.  I don’t want to paste too much more because we should encourage this type of work.  https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/coby-mayo-jackson-holliday-headline-10-statcast-standouts/ This is hopefully the last time that I’ll be writing about Mayo (hopefully he’ll be in the majors soon), so let’s dive even deeper and break down his analytical metrics vs both RHPs and LHPs, beginning with RHPs, as that’s his tougher matchup as a righty bat.   If you want to read these charts at a glance, go to the bottom row where it says “All Pitches” and scan for gold. The darker the gold, the better, the more purple, the worse the metric is. You can then scan up and see how that looks when broken into a smaller piece, such as sliders. All numbers are relative to the MLB average, so that you can easily see if he’s above average at something, with the caveat that this is against Triple-A pitching. Let’s go back to the analytical check boxes. When we talk about chase rates, we’re mostly concerned about chasing breaking balls (sliders, sweepers and curves) as well as offspeed pitches (changeups and splitters). The previous charts strongly suggested he was going to shine in that respect. Indeed he does, with minuscule chase rates against non-fastballs. This is a huge box to check. It demonstrates his tremendous approach at the plate, even against the harder matchup. He’s also able to avoid swing and miss against breaking balls the few times he does chase. For Zone Contact, I usually key in on the fastballs. That’s the pitch pitchers will typically use to attack hitters in the zone. Here again, we see more gold coloring, indicating Mayo has no trouble getting to above-average bat-to-ball ability in the zone. Now what makes Mayo an outstanding hitting prospect is his rare ability to make hard contact in the air. Against righties, he shows a remarkable ability to lift nearly every pitch type (including fastballs, which have a higher baseline launch angle), and does so with authority. I look through a lot of data, and I can’t think of another prospect that makes this much contact, with this much power, and also hits the ball in the air.   If you thought his metrics against righthanders were good, they’re even better when he has the matchup advantage against lefties, with perhaps a touch too much chase sliders. We see an incredible average exit velocity of 96.1 mph, which is borderline elite, and fully backed up by his elite 90th percentile ext velocities. At the risk of beating the same drum again, we see much the same story, an extremely potent analytical profile, where we have to zoom in on a subset to find something that Mayo isn’t (yet) excelling at. If he can replicate these kind of exit velocities and launch angles against major league lefties, he’ll be hitting a lot of home runs.
    • I want them ALL to do well. I have no ill will towards any Oriole or prospect. Lifelong fan and current plan holder. I want EVERYTHING to work out in our favor. I know little to nothing about Basallo except for what I read online and what I can glean from his stats, which is obviously not the whole story/picture. Hence the original post full of questions about him. Sorry you seem bothered by it all, but do you have any thoughts to share on Basallo? Or any responses to any of the 6 questions I asked in the original post? Or did you just get it all of your chest with that single, insightful comment?  
    • .500 OBP is much more valuable than a .500 Slug
    • Why not see how much someone like Jameson Taillon would cost prospect wise? $17 million a year for a decent pitcher isn't horrendous. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...