Bifurcated free agent Market

[JLee2027]

It seems to me this has become a two prong market. Talent perceived as top tier is getting stupid money while everyone else is being discounted. If this is correct, prices for "everyone else" will continue, over a period of months and years, to slide.

Good for the Orioles if true.

[Frobby]

Not sure I agree. J.A. Happ got 3/$36 mm, that's quite rich for a 4th/5th starter. Who has signed at a discount, in your opinion?

[Ven6]

It seems to me this has become a two prong market. Talent perceived as top tier is getting stupid money while everyone else is being discounted. If this is correct, prices for "everyone else" will continue, over a period of months and years, to slide.

Good for the Orioles if true.

I don't see the discounts you're seeing. JA freakin' Happ got 3 years and 36 million.

[DrungoHazewood]

Not sure I agree. J.A. Happ got 3/$36 mm, that's quite rich for a 4th/5th starter. Who has signed at a discount, in your opinion?

No discount there. Worth maybe six wins over the last four years, total, but being paid for 4.5 wins over three years. And ~20% of his career value was 11 late starts with the Pirates. I don't even see the point of that signing. I'd much rather take my chances with a kid or a bounceback than lock in that kind of performance, unless someone is totally bowled over by some change he made in Pittsburgh.

[bpilktree]

I don't see the discounts you're seeing. JA freakin' Happ got 3 years and 36 million.

Yeah i see a bunch of over priced guys and then everyone else waiting around for that huge deal too. The question will be will teams spend all their money early on and leave so low hanging fruits available in January or will the market just stay high and teams payroll will drastically increase.

[bpilktree]

No discount there. Worth maybe six wins over the last four years, total, but being paid for 4.5 wins over three years. And ~20% of his career value was 11 late starts with the Pirates. I don't even see the point of that signing. I'd much rather take my chances with a kid or a bounceback than lock in that kind of performance, unless someone is totally bowled over by some change he made in Pittsburgh.

Atleast it was 11 starts Hill's was 6 starts at the end last year when he was pitching to indy guys just a few months ago.

[JLee2027]

It's going to take time to play out if true. My post is more of a prediction. We won't see actual discounts until more free agents sign. The reason they are not yet signed is what is being offered is well below the ask.