"Wow offer made to Davis!" (7 years - $150M Not one nickle more)

[Can_of_corn]

I'm offering Chria Davis 7 free, E. coli free, guilt free meals at chipotle, you have 22 hours

Norovirus free?

http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/blog/health-care/2015/12/city-inspectors-tests-show-chipotle-illness.html

[TonySoprano]

On MLB, Morosi speculates that Davis is waiting on fallout from Heyward's next deal, specifically St. Louis if they miss out. In other words, Boras is waiting for a market besides Baltimore to create a competition which currently isn't there.

[Can_of_corn]

On MLB, Morosi speculates that Davis is waiting on fallout from Heyward's next deal, specifically St. Louis if they miss out. In other words, Boras is waiting for a market besides Baltimore to create a competition which currently isn't there.

I don't see St Louis even matching the O's reported offer.

[TonySoprano]

I don't see St Louis even matching the O's reported offer.

One would think St. Louis would already be kicking the tires on Davis as their "Plan B," just in case.

[Can_of_corn]

One would think St. Louis would already be kicking the tires on Davis as their "Plan B," just in case.

Sure, but not at 7/150.

[Hallas]

I've seen his comps. I've seen how his comps age.

I have seen where his Comps, over their 30-36 seasons, average 9.7 WAR. I am willing to pay for over 11 wins over 5 seasons at 8M a win.

It seems this is somewhat irrelevant because it looks like the O's are going in another direction, but just for argument's sake:

I'm assuming a reasonable back-of-napkin projection for him would be as follows:

2016: 3.5 (8m/win -> 28m)

2017: 2.5 (8.8m/win -> 22m)

2018: 2 (9.7M/win -> 19.4m)

2019: 1.5 (10.6m/win -> 16m)

2020: 1 (11.7m/win -> 11.7m)

2021: 0.5+ (12.9m/win -> 6.5m)

2022: <0.5 (14.2m/win -> 7.1m)

This total is 111.7m. You might think he's not a 3.5 win player, in which case you'd have to drop this significantly. He would essentially be out of the majors by 2021 if you considered him a 2.5 win player by true-talent-level. And any 7 year deal would be a huge gamble.

For the record, I think 150m is at the very top of what I would consider acceptable for him, and represents a slight overpay, although if it includes deferred money it might not be the end of the world. I personally think he's got 1-3 good-to-great seasons left in him, but once he hits 33-34 he's going to fall off a cliff. IMO the biggest reason TTO players have weirder-than-average aging curves is because losing contact skills beyond a certain threshold causes literally everything else about batting to fall apart, and TTO players, almost by definition, have questionable contact skills to start off with. (or they wouldn't strike out so much.)

[Can_of_corn]

Nice of you to show your thought process.

I think you are a bit high on the price of a win but that's a minor quibble.

I'm pretty happy with 5/90.

[25 Nuggets]

On MLB, Morosi speculates that Davis is waiting on fallout from Heyward's next deal, specifically St. Louis if they miss out. In other words, Boras is waiting for a market besides Baltimore to create a competition which currently isn't there.

Makes sense -- Boras, specifically, is in no hurry. We'll see if the gambit pays off.

[El Gordo]

Makes sense -- Boras, specifically, is in no hurry. We'll see if the gambit pays off.

STL needs to sign a SP. The ones left on the market will cost from 15M-20M AAV. I don't see them signing Davis for a 24 M AAV as well. Fowler makes more sense IMO.

[DrungoHazewood]

It seems this is somewhat irrelevant because it looks like the O's are going in another direction, but just for argument's sake:

I'm assuming a reasonable back-of-napkin projection for him would be as follows:

2016: 3.5 (8m/win -> 28m)

2017: 2.5 (8.8m/win -> 22m)

2018: 2 (9.7M/win -> 19.4m)

2019: 1.5 (10.6m/win -> 16m)

2020: 1 (11.7m/win -> 11.7m)

2021: 0.5+ (12.9m/win -> 6.5m)

2022: <0.5 (14.2m/win -> 7.1m)

This total is 111.7m. You might think he's not a 3.5 win player, in which case you'd have to drop this significantly. He would essentially be out of the majors by 2021 if you considered him a 2.5 win player by true-talent-level. And any 7 year deal would be a huge gamble.

For the record, I think 150m is at the very top of what I would consider acceptable for him, and represents a slight overpay, although if it includes deferred money it might not be the end of the world. I personally think he's got 1-3 good-to-great seasons left in him, but once he hits 33-34 he's going to fall off a cliff. IMO the biggest reason TTO players have weirder-than-average aging curves is because losing contact skills beyond a certain threshold causes literally everything else about batting to fall apart, and TTO players, almost by definition, have questionable contact skills to start off with. (or they wouldn't strike out so much.)

My standard-issue assumptions of 4-3-2-1 weighting of last four, $8M/win increasing at 5%/year, decline of 0.5 wins/year ends up with 6/133 paying for 17 wins.

[weams]

My standard-issue assumptions of 4-3-2-1 weighting of last four, $8M/win increasing at 5%/year, decline of 0.5 wins/year ends up with 6/133 paying for 17 wins.

I think Boras waits until Heyward is gone.

[mdbdotcom]

I think Boras waits until Heyward is gone.

As he should.

[Aristotelian]

I think Boras waits until Heyward is gone.

In this case the waiting game might be a bad strategy. Davis has a more limited market with the big budget clubs (NYY, LAD, BOS) all having 1B locked in. If the Orioles move on and sign an Upton or Gordon, that is one less team bidding on Davis. If STL is the team that signs Heyward, that takes away another bidder. I would not be surprised to see Davis' price go down the longer Boras waits.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think Boras waits until Heyward is gone.

Oops, I said $8M/win, but it was really $7M. If you make the current value of a win $8M I get 6/152 for Davis. Huh.

[mskrulz]

As he should.

As he should unless the Orioles actually do go and spend his money elsewhere which I'm hoping they do at this point.