What is Manny's ceiling?

[Frobby]

I thought this would be a fun topic as we sit around waiting for front office action: what do you think Manny's ceiling is as a player?

Manny made a quantum leap offensively last season, but I feel he still has a little room to grow. I'm going to say he is capable of .310/.390/.560 at his peak.

Defensively, 2015 was not nearly the best he is capable of. I kind of doubt Manny will ever match 2013, but I think he can be quite a bit better than last year just by cutting his errors down and making a few extra plays he didn't make in 2015.

In 2013, Manny was worth 6.7 rWAR, with decent offense and all-world defense. In 2015, he was worth 7.1 rWAR, with excellent offense and very good but not great defense. I say Manny is capable of putting together a season that's worth 10.0 - 10.5 rWAR. I don't know if 2016 will be the year, but it will happen.

What do you say?

[clapdiddy]

I say we try to lock him up for the next 10 years!

Good topic. I definitely think he's going to have at least one 10 rWAR season.

[MrOrange82]

IMO, Manny's ceiling depends on the degree to which his head inflates. Probably no more than 100,000 feet or so. If history's any indication, he's not uniquely durable.

[canonfaz]

I view Manny a lot like Adrian Beltre, but with a little less power and little better defense. In Beltre's best season, he was worth 9.5 WAR (2004, his age 25 season and his 7th season in the bigs).

I don't think a 10 WAR season is out of the question for Manny.

[Frobby]

For some reason sometimes I forget we have this guy in the lineup and that he's going to hit 30 bombs and do a bunch of cool stuff.

I don't the 30 homer mark might be his power ceiling, but all other hit tools I see having room to grow.

I don't know that Manny will ever hit 40 homers, but he might. But with some more certainty, I think he can stay around the 35 he hit this year while increasing the number of doubles from 30 to 40-45. He's got amazing power to the RF gap.

[weams]

For some reason sometimes I forget we have this guy in the lineup and that he's going to hit 30 bombs and do a bunch of cool stuff.

I don't the 30 homer mark might be his power ceiling, but all other hit tools I see having room to grow.

I think he can hit 40. He's 23! He already hit 35!

[waroriole]

I think he can hit 40. He's 23! He already hit 35!

This. I think his ceiling is at least a 10 WAR season. He's capable of a .320/.400/.550 season with legit GG, or even Platinum Glove, defense.

Basically, an ARod type value, especially if he is moved to SS.

[Tx Oriole]

ARod lite with the lite being in the power department.

I can go along with that idea.

[Just Regular]

It is so high that one of my perspectives on the next three years and the two wildcard era is that Manny is a playoff-caliber core by himself.

[sportsfan8703]

Arod texas years. Let's aim big.

[El Gordo]

ARod lite with the lite being in the power department.

I'd say that difference would be made up for with a little juice. Take the Roid from A' and you'd have Manny.

[El Gordo]

What is Manny's ceiling?

[murph]

I'd say that difference would be made up for with a little juice. Take the Roid from A' and you'd have Manny.

I guess your assuming he always used something then...Arod ops'd over 1000 when he was 20.

[Frobby]

What is Manny's ceiling?

Good one! Apparently I need to spread rep around before giving more to you.

[Hallas]

If he maintains his current skill level (or makes 1-for-1 tradeoffs in offense for defense) until his early 30s, he's a hall of famer. If his ceiling is higher than that then he's in the discussion for best 3B to ever play the game. He's already at 17 WAR for his career and he's 23. If he follows that up with a peak of 8-9 WAR for the next 5 years, he'll be a 28 year old with more career WAR than 6 of the 13 players listed as third basemen (according to B-R) in the HOF. At that point, if he can stay injury-free and reasonably productive into his mid-late 30s, he has a legit shot at beating Mike Schmidt for the most WAR as a third baseman. (Schmidt ended his career with 106.5.)