What kind of contract would Adam Jones get if he were a free agent right now?

[Frobby]

Same age as Chris Davis but has been more valuable over the last four years but far more consistent, had a far better track record prior to that, and plays center instead of 1B/emergency OF. So by any objective measure he's like (Davis * 1.25). Or something like that.

Jones is 8 months older even though he's the same "baseball age." He may have to move from CF when he hits his mid-30's, which will hurt his value. Still, I basically agree that Jones>Davis in terms of future production. He might not get as big a contract, only because homers are overvalued sometimes and the O's may have misjudged Davis' market and overbid. I guess we'll know more as the players mentioned in the OP sign their deals.

[sevastras]

Jones was a bit reckless when he first came to Baltimore. My little sister use to hang out with him and he was very much into the "California mind set" back then. He never use to hustle or run balls out. Now he is focused and very much a professional. I would value him at 6/148 on today's market. He has matured and his current contract is very good for the O's but if he went another direction in his maturety, it could have been equally bad.

[El Gordo]

Wouldn't want to give him more than 5 years. 5/110 M.

[MDtransplant757]

Jones was a bit reckless when he first came to Baltimore. My little sister use to hang out with him and he was very much into the "California mind set" back then. He never use to hustle or run balls out. Now he is focused and very much a professional. I would value him at 6/148 on today's market. He has matured and his current contract is very good for the O's but if he went another direction in his maturety, it could have been equally bad.

Wow. That's an interesting post. Jones would get the Lions share along with Cespedes right now.

[wildcard]

If Jones was on the market right now?

The answer is tied tightly to what is going to happen to the free agents that are on the market right now. Nov-Dec FA prices went wild. But a lot of the money seem to be gone. The current free agent position players could see prices drop sharply. Take a year or two off of projections and drop annual salaries by 10 to 20%.

What if Davis "only" gets 5 or 6 years at 20m pretty year. Seems like it could happen. The same with Gordon, Upton an Cespedes. Jones is at that level. I think Frobby's 5/100 is about right if the dropoff I expect happens.

[SteveO]

If Adam were a FA in this market, I still think the Cubs would have preferred Heyward as they wanted a guy who excels at OBP so Heyward is a better fit in that regard.

That said, I have no doubt the Cardinals or a number of other teams would be standing in line to obtain a guy who brings: significant power, recent history of being gold glove, durable, reasonably consistent year to year, clubhouse leader, likable and as such a pretty easy sell to your fanbase.

Adam brings premier skills that are hard to find at the position he plays. Right now there are 3 guys (Cespedes, Gordon, Upton) you can plug into a corner OF spot and feel like your added an upper echelon guy there. At CF, AJ would be the only guy who fits that bill, that creates leverage and bargaining power. Much as Heyward brought a skillset that was unique, Jones brings a unique and hard to find skillset to the position of CF.

My guess is around 6/150 or 7/175ish sounds about right. In other words he is a significant bargain for the Orioles at his current salary.

[wildcard]

If Adam were a FA in this market, I still think the Cubs would have preferred Heyward as they wanted a guy who excels at OBP so Heyward is a better fit in that regard.

That said, I have no doubt the Cardinals or a number of other teams would be standing in line to obtain a guy who brings: significant power, recent history of being gold glove, durable, reasonably consistent year to year, clubhouse leader, likable and as such a pretty easy sell to your fanbase.

Adam brings premier skills that are hard to find at the position he plays. Right now there are 3 guys (Cespedes, Gordon, Upton) you can plug into a corner OF spot and feel like your added an upper echelon guy there. At CF, AJ would be the only guy who fits that bill, that creates leverage and bargaining power. Much as Heyward brought a skillset that was unique, Jones brings a unique and hard to find skillset to the position of CF.

My guess is around 6/150 or 7/175ish sounds about right. In other words he is a significant bargain for the Orioles at his current salary.

Of course you know the Cards have never spent that much on any player.

[SteveO]

Of course you know the Cards have never spent that much on any player.

Whats your point? I said "Cardinals or a number of other teams"

Adam Jones brings a different skillset than Heyward but one that is equally unique and difficult to find. A CF with a good glove, premier power for that position, marketable to boot. That gets you paid. The idea that teams would even take into consideration the fact he may have to slide from CF down the road when making offers is laughable and proven untrue by the litany of huge money deals out there where those considerations were ignored. 6/150 would be the absolute floor for AJ on this market.

[weams]

Adam Jones brings a different skillset than Heyward but one that is equally unique and difficult to find. A CF with a good glove, premier power for that position, marketable to boot. That gets you paid. The idea that teams would even take into consideration the fact he may have to slide from CF down the road when making offers is laughable and proven untrue by the litany of huge money deals out there where those considerations were ignored. 6/150 would be the absolute floor for AJ on this market.

I believe he would have been the target for several teams. And if he were a FA next season? The sky would be the limit.

[Frobby]

Whats your point? I said "Cardinals or a number of other teams"

Adam Jones brings a different skillset than Heyward but one that is equally unique and difficult to find. A CF with a good glove, premier power for that position, marketable to boot. That gets you paid. The idea that teams would even take into consideration the fact he may have to slide from CF down the road when making offers is laughable and proven untrue by the litany of huge money deals out there where those considerations were ignored. 6/150 would be the absolute floor for AJ on this market.

I tend to doubt Jones would command 6/$150 mm. Objectively speaking, he's four years older than Heyward, and significantly less productive as measured by rWAR/dWAR, which take both defense and positional scarcity into account. I don't think GM's use WAR as their sole measures of value, but the difference between Heyward and Jones is significant enough where I doubt Jones would be getting a higher AAV than Heyward.

[Babypowder]

I think some of us are struggling to price free agents. Jones has no red flags. He is universally regarded as a leader, plays hard, "posts up every day". The analysts on ESPN and MLB talk about him glowingly every single time. This is both the straight analysts and the ex-players. All four of the players still out there have some sort of red flag. Not huge red flags but something. Gordon is health and age. Upton is his erratic production and the occasional rumors that he has dogged it in the past. Cespedes has the stuff we've been discussing. Davis is the erratic production the last 3 years along with the astronomical whiff rate. Make no mistake. Those issues along with the actual production and projections are priced into what these guys will get offered. The day of the good ole boy GM is long, long gone. These guys have sophisticated valuation models that factor in everything. The variance in offers typically comes down to free payroll, % payroll allocation to that player, and positional need.

Adam's intangibles along with his roughly equivalent production at a position of scarcity put him a clear step in front of the big four that are out there right now. He would get 6/138 to 7/175 with an opt out.

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OBP the last 4 years: .334 > .318 > .311 > .308

wRC+ the last 4 years: 127 > 119 > 116 > 109

I wouldn't say NO red flags.

[Tx Oriole]

Just kind of an interesting topic to talk about as we debate Cespedes, Upton and Gordon.

Cespedes -- 30 years old in 2016, 15.8 career rWAR, 15.4 fWAR in 575 games

Upton -- 28 years old in 2016, 24.7 rWAR, 26.5 fWAR in 1184 games

Gordon -- 32 years old in 2016, 31.8 rWAR, 29.7 fWAR in 1136 games

Jones -- 30 years old in 2016, 27.5 rWAR, 25.5 fWAR in 1242 games

I'd guess Jones would be in the 5/$100 mm range.

That's what I think he'd get.

[srock]

OBP the last 4 years: .334 > .318 > .311 > .308

wRC+ the last 4 years: 127 > 119 > 116 > 109

I wouldn't say NO red flags.

Yeah he has some flags, but almost every player has something to worry about. Jones' is plate discipline, always will be.

When his bat starts to slow down will his contact rate plummet as he continues to swing at bad pitches? He could fall off a cliff at the plate one year.

Or will he adjust? I hoping for the later, but its a real risk.

[crowmst3k!]

Jones took a pretty big discount during a contract year to remain here.

It really shows what he thinks of Baltimore.

[Can_of_corn]

Jones took a pretty big discount during a contract year to remain here.

It really shows what he thinks of Baltimore.

He took guaranteed money to stay in Baltimore.

It is not as if he was a free agent the O's retained.