Just go trade for Jay Bruce or Markakis

[Can_of_corn]

This. I have laughed seeing articles asking if the O's have the prospects or not to swing a deal. It shouldn't take much to acquire him since the Reds have no reason to hang on to him and his salary.

If you are trying to tank you can do worse then giving Bruce 600 at bats.

[Can_of_corn]

Where did that post from e16bball come from? That's a great post and I can't find it through search.

Just click on the symbol Tony.

This is the thread.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/151685-Jay-Bruce

No need to do a search.

[Crazysilver03]

I think the argument in favor of a Bruce bounce-back would have to revolve around (a) 2014 being an injury-affected down season and (b) 2015 being a particularly BABIP-unlucky season.

As to 2014, I think the argument that Bruce's injury played a major role is fairly straightforward. He'd been one player (120ish wRC+/OPS+, .225ish ISO, 10% BB rate, 35% hard contact rate, average to above-average COF defense, playing basically every day) remarkably consistently for four years. Almost Adam Jones sort of consistency, actually, especially in the baseball card stats.

Then he fell off precipitously in virtually every aspect of the game in 2014, at age 27. ISO drops by 60-70 points, GB rate skyrockets, K rate reaches a career high, steep drop in hard contact, defense is significantly worse across the board. Given that such a comprehensive ability nosedive is fairly unusual at that age, and that he had a rather significant in-season knee surgery in May, I think it's fair to conclude that his horrendous 2014 season could have been largely related to the effects of the injury.

Which leaves us with 2015. At first blush, I agree, it appears that his season indicates merely a continuation of the regression in his skillset. But I'm not so sure that's the case; in fact, I think in many ways, he was much closer to the 2010-2013 Jay Bruce than the 2014 version. Just a few bald comparisons of the three faces of Bruce:

BB rate

2010-13: 9.9%

2014: 8.1%

2015: 8.9%

K rate

2010-13: 24.7%

2014: 27.3%

2015: 22.3%

ISO

2010-13: .227

2014: .156

2015: .209

GB rate

2010-13: 36.2%

2014: 45.2%

2015: 37.0%

Hard Contact

2010-13: 35.7%

2014: 32.9%

2015: 35.4%

BABIP

2010-13: .309

2014: .269

2015: .251

In essence, most of the constituent aspects of his offensive performance already have bounced back. At least to some extent. The laggard is that BABIP, which somehow dipped even lower than it had in 2014. Which in turn dragged his batting average down to .226, despite a career-low K rate. *IF* he had posted a batting average in line with his 2010-2013 norms, with his 2015 BB rate and ISO, he would have had a line of .262/.330/.470/.800 and an OPS+ right around 115. In other words, if his BABIP hadn't been so bad, Bruce actually would have been pretty solid.

[CONTINUED IN NEXT POST TO AVOID EXCESSIVE LENGTH]

[

The big issue, then, is whether the BABIP plunge from 2013 to 2015 is real and likely to continue --- or if 2015 was an outlier of fluky bad BABIP luck that only appears to be a continuation of the injury-plagued 2014.

That's tough to know for sure. But two pieces of data I personally like to look at when it comes to determining if BABIP spikes/drops are likely to continue are the hard/soft contact rates and the hit direction distribution. There are two kinds of hitters who usually seem to maintain particularly low BABIP numbers: (1) hard-hitting sluggers who tend to be very pull-heavy, like Mark Teixeira or Carlos Pena; and (2) slap-hitters who don't manage much hard contact, like Brendan Ryan or Sam Fuld. Fairly rare that you see a particularly low BABIP from a player who hits the ball hard a lot AND has the ability to go the other way.

Using this as a (rudimentary, admittedly) guide, I went ahead and compared Jay Bruce's 2015 performance in these two categories to other similar players. Bruce's hard contact rate in 2015 was 35.4% and his opposite-field rate was 22.7%. I took all the seasons over the past 3 years where a player had a hard contact rate of at least 33% AND an opposite-field rate of at least 20%. There were 145 such seasons, including Bruce's 2015.

Of those 145 seasons, the average BABIP among the group was .317 and the median was .316. The bottom quartile was .294 and the bottom decile was .274. Bruce's 2015 BABIP of .251 was the second-lowest among the entire group, and only four other seasons were even below .260.

So what about those other 4 seasons, what happened to them after posting a low BABIP despite hard contact and going the other way? Well...

Anthony Rizzo 2013: .258 BABIP; 2014: .311 BABIP; 2015: .289 BABIP

Mitch Moreland 2013: .255 BABIP; 2014: .315 BABIP; 2015: .317 BABIP

David Ortiz 2014: .256 BABIP; 2015: .264 BABIP

Chris Davis 2014: .242 BABIP; 2015: .319 BABIP

With the exception of a decrepit, 39-year-old Big Papi, these hitters all bounced back in a major way from a BABIP standpoint.

I think it's reasonable to hope that the same may happen for Bruce. He's posted a good BABIP for most of his career, his constituent hitting abilities all seem to have rebounded last year after his injury-plagued 2014, and history shows that guys with his general hitting profile tend to bounce back after abnormally poor BABIP seasons. I still don't think you trade a lot for him, given his salary, but I would certainly be willing to roll the dice on him. I think there's a very real possibility that he may be back to a 115-120 OPS+ hitter over the next two seasons.

Bump bump

[weams]

Can't imagine a scenario where that's all the Reds would want for him unless they feel he's done as a player.

Well they said that the Orioles had the prospect(s) they would want. I can't imagine that they want Mancini or Walker.

[Tony-OH]

I think the argument in favor of a Bruce bounce-back would have to revolve around (a) 2014 being an injury-affected down season and (b) 2015 being a particularly BABIP-unlucky season.

I think your analysis on his potential for a bounce back is pretty darn good and why I don't think he's going to be had for just peanuts.

Saying that, Fowler's ability to get on base gives him a slight edge over Bruce's potential to be another huge bat in the lineup.

IF, I can get Bruce for a Mancini (Walker would be my preference) and Alvarez I'm making that deal and putting Bruce in RF.

[Tony-OH]

Well they said that the Orioles had the prospect(s) they would want. I can't imagine that they want Mancini or Walker.

You think they would prefer Wright over Mancini-led deal? All indications are they want offensive prospects. Bruce comes with some inherent risk and a fairly big contract, so the return is not going to be amazing for them. Besides, after what they got for Frazier, I'd probably start with Walker and Urrutia.

[tntoriole]

Here is the general tone on The Reds Zone, fan forum....

"Jomar Reyes is intriguing assuming he can play 3B. I would do a Reyes + Bundy/Harvey for Bruce deal."

"Two of Chance Sisco, Dylan Bundy, Hunter Harvey"

Ha, ha...you gotta love fans.

[Can_of_corn]

Here is the general tone on The Reds Zone, fan forum....

"Jomar Reyes is intriguing assuming he can play 3B. I would do a Reyes + Bundy/Harvey for Bruce deal."

"Two of Chance Sisco, Dylan Bundy, Hunter Harvey"

Ha, ha...you gotta love fans.

They not only taking on all of Bruce's salary but also kicking in some for Gallardo?

[weams]

You think they would prefer Wright over Mancini-led deal? All indications are they want offensive prospects. Bruce comes with some inherent risk and a fairly big contract, so the return is not going to be amazing for them. Besides, after what they got for Frazier, I'd probably start with Walker and Urrutia.

Great. I'd be ok with that. I think they just want ride of the contract myself. Maybe they would take the competitive balance pick.

[Tywright7]

Where would Bruce fit in the lineup?

[weams]

Where would Bruce fit in the lineup?

He could lead off. Seriously, I don't think that is an issue. The slap and dash kind of play is not what this team is ever going to be about. Gotta play to your strengths.

[Tywright7]

He could lead off. Seriously, I don't think that is an issue. The slap and dash kind of play is not what this team is ever going to be about. Gotta play to your strengths.

Yes but he's not a decent OBP so he's more of a 6/7 hitter in our current lineup. Fowler provides much more value for our lineup as structured

[Stotle]

Great. I'd be ok with that. I think they just want ride of the contract myself. Maybe they would take the competitive balance pick.

Or flip at the break with a good first half for one dude.

[weams]

Yes but he's not a decent OBP so he's more of a 6/7 hitter in our current lineup. Fowler provides much more value for our lineup as structured

I disagree with that postulate. Bruce could hit anywhere. If he hits again. If he is like Snider, the we have to DFA.

[weams]

Or flip at the break with a good first half for one dude.

After they DFA Bruce? Sure.